Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 1 of 1
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
A Comparison Of Models To Forecast Annual Average Potato Prices In Utah, Glade R. Erikson
A Comparison Of Models To Forecast Annual Average Potato Prices In Utah, Glade R. Erikson
All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023
Potatoes are a capital-intensive crop. A farmer who is considering expanding his potato acreage must carefully consider revenue requirements to offset the high costs of raising the crop. A method to forecast annual farm potato prices would be useful not only to the farmer, who is considering potato acreage expansion (or contraction), but also to the potato buyers.
Seven forecasting models were considered: (1) a simultaneous equation model (with five equations); (2) a Box-Jenkins type ARIMA model; (3) an exponential smoothing model; (4) a moving-average model; (5) a trend model; (6) an "opposite" model; and (7) a current, or naive, …