Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Temperature And Convictions: Evidence From India, Terry Ann Craigie, Vis Taraz, Mariyana Zapryanova

Economics: Faculty Publications

High temperatures have been shown to affect human cognition and decision-making in a variety of settings. In this paper, we explore the extent to which higher temperatures affect judicial decision-making in India. We use data on judicial decisions from the Indian eCourt platform, merged with high-resolution gridded daily weather data. We estimate causal effects by leveraging a fixed effects framework. We find that high daily maximum temperatures raise the likelihood of convictions and these results are robust to numerous controls and specifications. Our findings contribute to a growing literature that documents that the negative impacts of rising temperatures are often …

Paying For What Kind Of Performance? Performance Pay, Multitasking, And Sorting In Mission-Oriented Jobs, Daniel B. Jones, Mirco Tonin, Michael Vlassopoulos, K. Pun Winichakul

Economics: Faculty Publications

How does pay-for-performance (P4P) impact productivity and the composition of workers in mission-oriented jobs when output has multiple dimensions? This is a central issue in the public sector, particularly in areas such as education and healthcare. We conduct an experiment, manipulating compensation and mission, to answer these questions. We find that P4P has significantly smaller positive effects on productivity on the incentivized (quantity) dimension in the mission-oriented setting relative to the non-mission-oriented setting. On the other hand, P4P generates no loss in performance on the non-incentivized (quality) dimension of effort in the mission-oriented setting, whereas it does so in the …

Simon Doesn’T Say: Minimal Qualitative Distortions From Experimenter Demand, David Danz, Marissa Lepper, Guillermo Lezama, Priyoma Mustafi, Lise Verterlund, Alistair Wilson, K. Pun Winichakul

Economics: Faculty Publications

Experimenter demand is a clear threat to the validity of experimental results. To understand the extent of this threat for lab studies, we apply the quantitative frame- work from de Quidt, Haushofer and Roth (2018) to explore whether experimenter demand can generate flawed qualitative inference in experimental studies, using four classic behavioral findings. In these four settings we examine the extent to which demand can alter the nature of a comparative-static conclusion, a stronger test of the potential distortions resulting from experimenter demand. Starting with the laboratory population, we demonstrate that even in a stark environment with deliberate researcher attempts …

The Gift Of Giving: Recognizing Donors And Revealing Donation Amounts, K. Pun Winichakul

Economics: Faculty Publications

Publicly announcing how much individuals donate on behalf of themselves is a common fundraising strategy. For tribute gifts made on behalf of others, however, charities only reveal donor identities to the honoree with few revealing the size of their contributions. This paper examines the fundraising consequences of recognizing donors with and without information about donation amounts when notifying honorees of gifts made on their behalf. I find that revealing contribution amounts in addition to recognizing donors benefits fundraisers. I find that both the likelihood of giving on behalf of others and contribution amounts increase when honorees learn how much donors …

Bitcoin Adoption And Beliefs In Canada, Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia

Economics: Faculty Publications

We develop a tractable model of Bitcoin adoption with network effects and social learning, which we then connect to unique data from the Bank of Canada’s Bitcoin Omnibus Survey for the years 2017 and 2018. The model determines how the probability of Bitcoin adoption depends on (1) network effects; (2) individual learning effects; and (3) social learning effects. After accounting for the endogeneity of beliefs, we find that both network effects and individual learning effects have a positive and significant direct impact on Bitcoin adoption, whereas the role of social learning is to ameliorate the marginal effect of the network …

Enter Stage Left: Immigration And The American Arts, K. Pun Winichakul, Ning Zhang

Economics: Faculty Publications

To what extent have immigrants contributed to the growth of the United States arts sector? In this paper, we explore the impact of immigration during the Age of Mass Migration on the development of the arts in the U.S. over the past century. In the short run, our results suggest that immigration helped produce greater numbers of native artists. Over a century later, the bene- fits to the arts persist. Counties with greater historical immigration house more arts businesses and nonprofit organizations that generate more revenue, employ a larger proportion of the community, and earn more federal arts grants. When …

A Theory Of Crime And Vigilance, Jorge Vásquez

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper develops a theory of crime in which potential victims elect their vigilance levels. When vigilance expenses are greater than expected property losses, an increase in penalties raises crime, namely, a criminal Laffer curve emerges. This curve is higher and peaks earlier when victims face higher costs. Thus, the government may wish to subsidize vigilance rather than increase penalties. Indeed, an increase in penalties may shift the vigilance levels further away from their socially optimal ones. Finally, the crime rate first rises and then falls in the property value at stake, which is consistent with the empirical evidence.

More Than A Safety Net: Ethiopia's Flagship Public Works Program Increases Tree Cover, Kalle Hirvonen, Elia A. Machado, Andrew M. Simons, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

More than one billion people worldwide receive cash or in-kind transfers from social protection programs. In low-income countries, these transfers are often conditioned on participation in labor-intensive public works to rehabilitate local infrastructure or natural resources. Despite their popularity, the environmental impacts of public works programs remain largely undocumented. We quantify the impact on tree cover of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the world's largest and longest-running public works programs, using satellite-based data of tree cover combined with difference-in-differences and inverse probability treatment weighting methodologies. We find that the PSNP increased tree cover by 3.8% between 2005 …

Well Excuse Me! Replicating And Connecting Excuse-Seeking Behaviors, Beatriz Ahumada, Yufei Chen, Neeraja Gupta, Kelly Hyde, Marissa Lepper, Will Mathews, Neil Silveus, Lise Vesterlund, Taylor Weidman, Alistair Wilson, K. Pun Winichakul, Liyang Zhou

Economics: Faculty Publications

Excuse-seeking behavior that facilitates replacing altruistic choices with self-interested ones has been documented in several domains. In a laboratory study, we replicate three leading papers on this topic: Dana et al. (2007), and the use of information avoidance; Exley (2015), and the use of differential risk preferences; and Di Tella et al. (2015), and the use of motivated beliefs. The replications were conducted as part of a graduate course, attempting to embed one answer to the growing call for experimental replications within the pedagogic process. We fully replicate the simpler Dana et al. paper, and broadly replicate the core findings …

Do School Suspension Reforms Work? Evidence From Rhode Island, Terry Ann Craigie

Economics: Faculty Publications

In Rhode Island, out-of-school suspensions were excessively and disproportionately used to penalize low-level infractions. To address this problem, the Rhode Island General Assembly passed legislation, effective May 2012, prohibiting out-of-school suspensions for attendance-specific infractions. Four years later, the Assembly passed additional legislation to curb out-of-school suspensions for disruption-specific infractions. This study examines the impact of these suspension reforms on out-of-school suspension outcomes for treatment infractions and corresponding racial-ethnic disparities. To execute the analyses, the study uses student-level administrative data (AY 2009–2010 to AY 2017–2018) from the Rhode Island Department of Education, along with quasi-experimental estimation. The study finds that only …

Peer Effects And Recidivism: The Role Of Race And Age, Kegon Teng Kok Tan, Mariyana Zapryanova

Economics: Faculty Publications

Recidivism rates are a growing concern due to the high cost of imprisonment and the high rate of ex-prisoners returning back to prison. One policy-relevant and potentially important determinant of recidivism is the composition of peer inmates. In this paper, we study the role of peer effects within a correctional facility using data on almost 80,000 individuals serving time in Georgia. We exploit randomness in peer-composition over time within prisons to identify effects of peers on recidivism rates. We find no evidence of peer effects for property or drug-related crimes in the general prison population. However, we find strong peer …

Co-Worker Altruism And Unemployment, Jorge Vásquez, Marek Weretka

Economics: Faculty Publications

It is well-known that social relationships and altruism among workers foster cooperation in the workplace and, therefore, may have beneficial effects for firms. Yet it is unclear how and to what extent co-worker altruism impacts labor market outcomes. In this paper, we find that, although co-worker altruism may be seamless in good times, it may impact the functioning of labor markets during bad times. Specifically, co-worker altruism may potentially lead to wage rigidity and involuntary unemployment in economic downturns. These results seem to be consistent with recent empirical findings.

Mandatory Minimum Reforms, Sentencing, And Racial-Ethnic Disparities, Terry Ann Craigie, Mariyana Zapryanova

Economics: Faculty Publications

Over the last 20 years, numerous states and the federal government enacted mandatory minimum reforms, especially for drug offenses. Yet little is known about how effective these reforms have been at the state-level in lowering drug sentences. Using quasi-experimental methods and administrative data, this study evaluates the impact of state-level mandatory minimum reforms on drug sentences and their concomitant racial-ethnic disparities. We find that state-level mandatory minimum reforms do not lower drug sentences in general or change racial-ethnic disparities statistically significantly. These findings suggest that the profound racial-ethnic bias sparked by state-level mandatory minimums are not fully ameliorated by subsequent …

Going Virtual: A Step-By-Step Guide To Taking The In-Person Experimental Lab Online, David Danz, Neeraja Gupta, Marissa Lepper, Lise Verterlund, K. Pun Winichakul

Economics: Faculty Publications

This guide provides a detailed account of procedures for conducting traditional in-person laboratory experiments in a “virtual setting.” The main objective of these procedures is to maintain the control of traditional in-person lab studies when conducting studies over the internet. Using the participant pool of the in-person lab the key procedural steps include participants having their webcams on throughout the experiment, technical screenings and attention pledges, playing pre-recorded instructions out loud, upholding clear experimenter roles and communication protocols when interacting with participants, and finally detailed and scripted procedures for managing participants throughout the session. The described procedures have been used …

Do Actions Speak Louder Than Motives? Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Image-Fundraising, K. Pun Winichakul

Economics: Faculty Publications

Charitable giving can boost an individual’s image, and organizations can capitalize on this by engaging in “image-fundraising.” Public announcements of donations give individuals the opportunity to demonstrate their generosity and are found to increase giving. This paper evaluates whether generosity inferred from charitable giving is discounted when donations are made in response to image-fundraising. I show in an experimental study that others reward larger donations, and that image-fundraising increases giving. However, others account for the conditions under which donations are made and reduce rewards for giving in an image-fundraising environment. While image-fundraising benefits charitable organizations, individuals are not recompensed for …

Pregnancy Loss And Female Labor Market Outcomes, Priti Kalsi, Maggie Y. Liu

Economics: Faculty Publications

As many as 20% of all pregnancies end in a miscarriage - a random event that any expecting woman is susceptible to, yet the economic effects of this prevalent fertility shock have not been directly studied. In this paper, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) and address a critical empirical question: how do miscarriages affect women's labor market outcomes, such as income and labor supply? We find that a miscarriage is associated with about $2,500 loss in annual income post-loss. Our findings suggest the negative effect on female labor market outcomes associated with a …

Long-Term Migration Trends And Rising Temperatures: The Role Of Irrigation, Théo Benonnier, Katrin Millock, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

Climate variability has the potential to affect both international and internal migration profoundly. Earlier work finds that higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields, which in turn reduces migration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints. We test whether access to irrigation modulates this temperature–migration relationship, since irrigation buffers agricultural incomes from high temperatures. We regress measures of international and internal migration on decadal averages of temperature and rainfall, interacted with country-level data on irrigation and income. We find robust evidence that, for poor countries, irrigation access significantly offsets the negative effect of increasing temperatures on internal migration, as proxied by …

The Effects Of Time In Prison And Time On Parole On Recidivism, Mariyana Zapryanova

Economics: Faculty Publications

In the United States, every year roughly 600,000 people are released from prison, two-thirds of them without having served their full sentence behind bars. Yet little is known about how release before full completion of sentence affects recidivism. I exploit the distinction between sentence and time served in prison to better understand how custodial and noncustodial sanctions affect recidivism. In particular, I study the effects of time in prison and time on parole on recidivism. Relying on two instrumental variables that provide independent variation in sentence and time served in prison, I do not find evidence that parole time affects …

Temperature And Human Capital In India, Teevrat Garg, Maulik Jagnani, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

We estimate the effects of temperature on human capital production in India. We show that high temperatures reduce math and reading test scores among school-age children. Agricultural income is one mechanism driving this relationship— hot days during the growing season reduce agricultural yields and test scores with comparatively modest effects of hot days in the nongrowing season. The roll-out of a workfare program, by providing a safety net for the poor, substantially weakens the link between temperature and test scores. Our results imply that absent social protection programs, higher temperatures will have large negative i

Chess As A Testing Grounds For The Oracle Approach To Ai Safety, James Miller, Roman V. Yampolskiy, Olle Häggström, Stuart Armstrong

Economics: Faculty Publications

To reduce the danger of powerful super-intelligent AIs, we might make the first such AIs oracles that can only send and receive messages. This paper proposes a possibly practical means of using machine learning to create two classes of narrow AI oracles that would provide chess advice: those aligned with the player's interest, and those that want the player to lose and give deceptively bad advice. The player would be uncertain which type of oracle it was interacting with. As the oracles would be vastly more intelligent than the player in the domain of chess, experience with these oracles might …

The Impact Of The Aca Medicaid Expansion On Disability Program Applications, Lucie Schmidt, Lara D. Shore-Sheppard, Tara Watson

Economics: Faculty Publications

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded the availability of public health insurance, decreasing the relative benefit of participating in disability programs but also lowering the cost of exiting the labor market to apply for disability benefits. In this paper, we explore the impact of expanded access to Medicaid through the ACA on applications to the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) programs. Using the fact that the Supreme Court decision of June 2012 made the Medicaid expansion optional for the states, we compare changes in county-level SSI and SSDI caseloads in contiguous county pairs across a …

Federalizing Benefits: The Introduction Of Supplemental Security Income And The Size Of The Safety Net, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, Lucie Schmidt

Economics: Faculty Publications

In 1974, Supplemental Security Income (SSI) federalized cash welfare programs for the elderly, blind, and individuals with disabilities, imposing a national minimum benefit, and differentially raising payment levels in states that paid below its benefit floor. We show that this increased disability participation, but shrank non-disability cash transfer programs. For every four new SSI recipients, three came from other welfare programs. Each dollar of per capita SSI income increased total per capita transfer income by just over 50 cents. Federalizing part of a patchwork safety net need not increase redistribution by as much as traditional models of fiscal federalism suggest.

Affective Empathy In Non-Cooperative Games, Jorge Vásquez, Marek Weretka

Economics: Faculty Publications

In this paper, we examine strategic settings in which players have interdependent preferences. Players' utility functions depend not only on the strategy profile being played, but also on the realized utilities of other players. Thus, players' realized utilities are interdependent, capturing the psychological phenomena of affective empathy and emotional contagion. We offer a solution concept for these empathetic games and show that the set of equilibria is non-empty and, generically, finite. Motivated by psychological evidence, we then analyze sympathetic and antipathetic games. In the former, players' utilities increase in others' realized utilities, capturing unconditional friendship; in the latter, the opposite …

A Win Win: College Athletes Get Paid For Their Names, Images, And Likenesses And Colleges Maintain The Primacy Of Academics, Jayma Meyer, Andrew S. Zimbalist

Economics: Faculty Publications

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed the Fair Pay to Play Act (SB 206) into law on September 30, 2019. The bill made it illegal for California's universities to prohibit college athletes from receiving compensation for use of their Names, Images, and Likenesses ("NILs"). Lawmakers soon introduced similar bills in other states1 and in Congress.

In this Article, we explain the history and role of amateurism in college athletics (Part I); the legal landscape of amateurism and paying college athletes, including NIL payments (Part II); the potential scope of NIL payments (Part III); and the NCAA NIL Committee’s recommendations (Part IV). …

Temperature And Economic Activity: Evidence From India, Anuska Jain, Róisín O'Sullivan, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the impact of temperature on economic activity in India, using state-level data from 1980–2015. We estimate that a 1 ◦C increase in contemporaneous temperature (relative to our sample mean) reduces the economic growth rate that year by 2.5 percentage points. The adverse impact of higher temperatures is more severe in poorer states and in the primary sector. Our analysis of lagged temperatures suggests that our effects are driven by the contemporaneous effect of temperature on output; we do not find evidence of a permanent impact of contemporaneous temperatures on future growth rates.

Ban The Box, Convictions, And Public Employment, Terry Ann Craigie

Economics: Faculty Publications

Ban the Box (BTB) policies mandate deferred access to criminal history until later in the hiring process. However, these policies chiefly target public employers. The study is the first to focus on the primary goal of BTB reform, by measuring the impact of BTB policies on the probability of public employment for those with convictions. To execute the analyses, the study uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (2005–2015) and difference-in-difference (DD) estimation. The study finds that BTB policies raise the probability of public employment for those with convictions by about 30% on average. Some scholars …

Asset Pricing Of International Equity Under Cross-Border Investment Frictions, Thummim Cho, Argyris Tsiaras

Economics: Faculty Publications

We develop a tractable asset pricing model of international equity markets to investigate the impact of frictions in cross-border financial investments on equity return dynamics and cross-border equity holdings across countries. We characterize the equilibrium of the model analytically at the limit as one country becomes large relative to all other countries. Our results clarify the distinct impact of cross-border holding costs, cash-flow fundamentals comovement, and preferences on cross-border portfolio holdings, return comovement, and risk premia. The model offers a unified explanation for key empirical regularities in the cross-section of equity markets regarding cross-country return correlations, CAPM pricing errors, and …

Reciprocity Through Ratings: An Experimental Study Of Bias In Evaluations, Simon Halliday, Jonathan Lafky

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper studies the potential for ratings of seller quality to be influenced by side payments to raters. In a laboratory setting, we find that even modest side payments from sellers to raters have large effects, with the type of rating (favorable or unfavorable) given to a seller determined primarily by how large a monetary transfer the seller makes to the rater. Our results demonstrate that side payments can crowd out a rater’s concern for buyers, even in situations where there is no potential for long-term relationship building.

China's “Great Migration”: The Impact Of The Reduction In Trade Policy Uncertainty, Giovanni Facchini, Maggie Y. Liu, Anna Maria Mayda, Minghai Zhou

Economics: Faculty Publications

We analyze the effect of China's integration into the world economy on workers in the country and show that one important channel of impact has been internal migration. Specifically, we study the changes in internal migration rates triggered by the reduction in trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese exporters in the U.S. This reduction is characterized by plausibly exogenous variation across products, which we use to construct a local measure of treatment, at the level of a Chinese prefecture, following Bartik (1991). This allows us to estimate a difference-in-difference empirical specification based on variation across Chinese prefectures before and after …

Is There An Economic Case For The Olympic Games?, Chris Dempsey, Victor Matheson, Andrew Zimbalist

Economics: Faculty Publications

The Olympic Games are a major undertaking that promise both large costs and potentially large benefits to host cities. This paper lays out the potential economic benefits of hosting the Olympics and details how, in the vast majority of cases, these gains are unlikely to cover the costs of hosting the event. The ideas are then applied to the experience of Boston in its ultimately unsuccessful bid for the 2024 Summer Olympics.