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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
'Rally Round The Flag’ Events For Presidential Approval Research, Brian Newman, Andrew Forcehimes
'Rally Round The Flag’ Events For Presidential Approval Research, Brian Newman, Andrew Forcehimes
Brian Newman
Since Mueller's [Mueller, J., 1970. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review 64 (1), 18-34.] pioneering study, students of presidential approval ratings have agreed that major events affect these ratings. Despite this consensus, there is wide divergence in the ways that scholars have selected events for inclusion in models of approval ratings. This inconsistency inhibits direct comparisons across studies and raises the possibility that results are contingent on those selection criteria. Thus, what we have learned about the impact of various factors that may affect approval may depend on the details of selection criteria. Practically, scholars …
Fanning The Flames: Religious Media Consumption And American Politics, Brian Newman, Mark Smith
Fanning The Flames: Religious Media Consumption And American Politics, Brian Newman, Mark Smith
Brian Newman
Both religion and mass media are politically important in the United States. However, little is known about the political role of religious media. Religious media might be politically influential because they help translate religion into political thinking and because their consumers are likely to internalize the political cues these media provide. We find that almost a quarter of the public claims to have relied on religious media when making voting decisions in 2000. Religious media users felt significantly closer to George W. Bush and Pat Buchanan and farther away from Al Gore and were more likely to vote for Bush …
Are Voters Better Represented?, Brian Newman, John D. Griffin
Are Voters Better Represented?, Brian Newman, John D. Griffin
Brian Newman
Studies of political participation and representation often contend that elected officials respond more to the preferences of voters than those of nonvoters, but seldom test this claim. This is a critical assumption because if true, biases in who participates will lead to biased representation. Office holders might respond disproportionately to voters’ preferences because voters tend to select like-minded representatives, voters tend to communicate their preferences more, and only voters can reelect representatives. We find that voter preferences predict the aggregate roll-call behavior of Senators while nonvoter preferences do not. We also present evidence supporting the three explanations advanced to account …
Presidential Traits And Job Approval: Some Aggregate-Level Evidence., Brian Newman
Presidential Traits And Job Approval: Some Aggregate-Level Evidence., Brian Newman
Brian Newman
In a previous article in this journal, Cohen (2001) introduced time series measures of public perceptions of Bill Clinton's personal characteristics. Here, I explore the political impact of these perceptions, asking whether they affect the public's evaluations of presidential job performance. I find that they do, adding aggregate-level support to existing individual-level evidence of the importance of character assessments. Finding a connection between character perceptions and job approval in the aggregate time series context helps answer questions previous studies leave unresolved, with significant implications for our understanding of presidential approval and presidential politics more generally. [First paragraph]
Fdr To Clinton, Mueller To ?: A Field Essay On Presidential Approval, Brian Newman, Paul Gronke
Fdr To Clinton, Mueller To ?: A Field Essay On Presidential Approval, Brian Newman, Paul Gronke
Brian Newman
Since the 1930s, polling organizations have asked Americans whether they "approve or disapprove of the job [the incumbent] is doing as president." In the early 1970s, John Mueller started an academic industry by asking what drives these evaluations. American politics and the tools available to examine it have changed dramatically since then, inspiring a burst of research on presidential approval in the 1990s. We review this new body of literature, arguing that it builds on but differs importantly from earlier approval studies. Since Mueller's writing, scholars have expanded his relatively simple model, taking account of presidents' goals and personal characteristics, …
Bill Clinton’S Approval Ratings: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same, Brian Newman
Bill Clinton’S Approval Ratings: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same, Brian Newman
Brian Newman
Over the past three decades, political scientists have been developing general models of presidential approval ratings, seeking to determine the structure of aggregate approval. This endeavor has culminated in the broad claim that "peace, prosperity, and probity" drive the public's approval. The unprecedented events of the Clinton Presidency, especially his high approval during and after impeachment, present a strong challenge to this model. However, the existing model explains Clinton's approval remarkably well, suggesting that the public punished and rewarded him for the state of the economy, major political events, and his integrity. Passing this strong test constitutes considerable support for …