Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 16 of 16
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Market Efficiency And The Arena Football League: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Market Efficiency And The Arena Football League: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
With final scores like 99-68 and 80-74, can the market for wagers on Arena Football League games operate with the same efficiency generally associated with the more established betting markets? The question extends the argument by Pankoff (1968) that football point spreads are analogous to security prices and that profitable betting rules would create doubt about the efficiency of any competitive marketplace. Pankoff reasoned that bettors were no less numerous, knowledgeable or profit-maximizing than investors and that superior returns should be just as elusive to the former as they are to the latter. However, arena football's short point spread history …
Is It Time To Reconsider The Semivariance Again? A Note, Ladd Kochman
Is It Time To Reconsider The Semivariance Again? A Note, Ladd Kochman
Ladd Kochman
Building on the assumption that stock returns are less-than-symmetric, the semivariances (SV) are computed for 14 domestic and foreign stock indices as well as their respective arithmetic means (AM) and standard deviations (SD) and hypotheses that the correlation between SVs and AMs will be both positive and greater than the correlation between SDs and AMs.
Football Market Efficiency And The Gambler's Fallacy, Ladd Kochman, Ken Gilliam
Football Market Efficiency And The Gambler's Fallacy, Ladd Kochman, Ken Gilliam
Ladd Kochman
No abstract provided.
Time Diversification: Tool, Fallacy Or Both?, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Time Diversification: Tool, Fallacy Or Both?, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
It seems fair to conclude that time diversification is more nearly a fallacy than a tool. Total periodic returns based on random annual outcomes expose the practice of diversifying with time not only as unproductive but as extremely risky as well. Yet, as the contrived distribution of alternating returns of 30% and -10% demonstrated, it is impossible to completely reject the idea that risk can actually decrease over time.
A Runs Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ken Gilliam
A Runs Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ken Gilliam
Ladd Kochman
No abstract provided.
The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Ladd Kochman
Imaginary wagers placed on college football teams during the 2006-2010 seasons that were expected to beat the point spread following two games in which they lost both on the field and against the spread produced a wins-to-bets ratio that was statistically nonrandom but not profitable. However, when that rule was limited to the major conference schools, a significantly profitable W/B ratio emerged that challenges the efficiency of a competitive market.
Mutual Fund Performance In A Nonsymmetrical World: A Case For The Upside Deviation, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Mutual Fund Performance In A Nonsymmetrical World: A Case For The Upside Deviation, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Ladd Kochman
A mathematical case is made for the upside deviation. When a portfolio's UD is divided by the market's UD, the resulting ratio facilitates another test of positive or negative skewness. However, a grater contribution of the prospective measure is that were DDp/DDm monitors a portfolio's control of downside deviations, UDp/UDm reflects the leverage from upside deviations.
Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman
Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman
Ladd Kochman
The outcomes of wagers on underdogs in the National Football League for the 2003-2007 seasons indicated that what had been anomalous behavior no longer existed. The failure of underdogs to beat the spread in profitable or nonrandom fashion supports the argument that competitive markets are efficient and undermines the proposition that behavioral finance can illuminate exploitable betting patterns.
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
In an effort to learn if systematic misperceptions by market participants can undermine efficient prices and create regular profit opportunities, Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993) investigated whether participants in the basketball-betting market overbet streaking (or "hot") teams. The purpose of this note is determine whether streaking teams - both hot and cold-in college football alter point spreads to an exploitable degree. The pointwise outcomes of college football teams following 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, 7-, 8-, and 9-game streaks during the 1996-2000 seasons. Streaks in the aggregate produced only breakeven results when used to predict the outcomes of …
Portfolio Evaluation, Downside Risk And An Anomaly, Ladd Kochman
Portfolio Evaluation, Downside Risk And An Anomaly, Ladd Kochman
Ladd Kochman
Owing to the developments in portfolio theory in the 1960s, the evaluation of portfolio performance has evolved from a return-only mentality to a process that makes risk no less important than return. Earliest efforts to combine the two dimensions into a single (or composite) measure belong to Treynor (1965) and Sharpe (1966), who suggested dividing a portfolio's return in excess of the risk-free rate by the portfolio's bets and standard deviation, respectively. When Fama (1972) recommended that portfolios pay premiums that capture both market and diversification risk, he was implicitly asking whether Jensen's (1968) use of beta sufficiently measures the …
Football Betting And The Neglected-Firm Effect: A Note, Ladd Kochman, David Waples
Football Betting And The Neglected-Firm Effect: A Note, Ladd Kochman, David Waples
Ladd Kochman
To the extent that betting is analogous to investing, it seems fair to think that the football-betting market could provide a legitimate test of the neglected-firm effect. In the context of football-betting, neglect as a predictor variable appears to possess no special qualities. Even as the basis for a contrarian rule (that is, betting on teams that are least-neglected), the condition of being overlooked generated a W/B ratio (52.30 percent) that was unable to hurdle the 52.38-percent breakeven rate. Clearly, from a neglected-teams perspective, the football-betting market is efficient. A broader conclusion might be that the neglected-firm effect has little …
Securities Market Efficiency And The Reigning Super Bowl Champions, Ladd Kochman
Securities Market Efficiency And The Reigning Super Bowl Champions, Ladd Kochman
Ladd Kochman
The vulnerability of stock prices has long intrigued investors and researchers. Beating the market has an inescapable appeal. The overwhelming evidence that regular above average returns are denied to all but those with inside information has not slowed efforts to find market errors or tap into profitable trends. One reason for hope is that past studies have never truly resolved how long securities must be held before a particular trading strategy can be measured. Pankoff has proposed that the market for bets on National Football League games can serve as a proxy for the securities market. Examining recent studies using …
Do Mutual Funds Understate Their Volatility?, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi, Randy Goodwin
Do Mutual Funds Understate Their Volatility?, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
It is probably fair to say that the standard deviation, as a measure of total risk, fell out of favor when researchers discovered that diversification makes only systematic risk relevant to investors. Since even small portfolios of 12 to 18 stocks can eliminate as much as 90 percent of a portfolio's unsystematic risk (Evans and Archer, 1968), it is reasonable to think that average and institutional investors alike attach little importance to their holdings' standard deviation. Why then should it matter if mutual funds understate their standard deviations? After all, even grossly understated standard deviations can still overstate the risk …
The Why And How Of Mutual Fund Standard Deviations, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
The Why And How Of Mutual Fund Standard Deviations, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
To the interested observer, mutual fund standard deviations raise two tantalizing questions: Are standard deviations relevant when funds, by definition, eliminate the unsystematic component of total risk? and How can two respected giants in the investments field like Fidelity and Morningstar use the same returns, intervals and measurement period for the same fund and end up with glaringly different standard deviations? To answer the question of relevance, we recall Evans and Archer's (1968) argument that as much as 90 percent of a portfolio's unsystematic risk can be diversified away with 12 to 18 stocks. Since that diversifiable risk is a …
Market Efficiency And The Women's Nba, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Market Efficiency And The Women's Nba, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
The availability of point spreads for the past three WNBA seasons offers researchers an early opportunity to test the efficiency of the market for wagers on WNBA games. While the more mature betting markets for football, baseball and men's basketball have generally denied regular profits to participants, the unique and emerging nature of the WNBA would seem to warrant another look at the vulnerability of betting lines. By examining the efficiency of WNBA point spreads, this study is, to a large extent, testing the hypothesis that markets in the emerging stage lack the participation that ensures efficient pricing and thus …
Mutual Fund Performance, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Mutual Fund Performance, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Ladd Kochman
No abstract provided.