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Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury
Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Purpose – Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology uses a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and Granger Causality test. Findings – Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty. Research limitations/implications – …
(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India. Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty. With Granger causality running both ways, the Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses hold simultaneously in India. It provides strong support to the notion of an opportunistic …
Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan
Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan
Safdar Khan
Extract:
Although inflationary pressures persisted in the economy for the second year in a row, the headline inflation fell to 7.6 percent year-on-year in June 2006 that was 1 percentage point less than inflation in corresponding month last year.1 The inflation containment was more visible in the last six months of FY06 as compared to first six months (Jul 05 to Dec 05): the average CPI inflation during the first half of the year was 8.4 percent which declined to 7.4 percent in the second half primarily due to fall in food inflation. Inflation measured by sensitive price indicator also …