Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …

Likely And Unlikely Events In International Security Affairs: An Example From The People's Republic Of China, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article describes a human judgment shortfall in international security decision making based on statistical probabilities.

Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller

Publications and Research

Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …

Social Work Assessment Of Adaptive Functioning Using The Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales: Issues Of Reliability And Validity, Peter Cabrera, Lucienne Grimes-Gaa, Bruce A. Thyer

Elián P. Cabrera-Nguyen

The assessment of client adaptive functioning is often an important component of a comprehensive social work evaluation. The Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) are the most commonly used quantitative measures of adaptive functioning for clients meeting the criteria for a wide range of disorders. We review the development of the VABS and current knowledge pertaining to the instrument's reliability and validity. We conclude that the ability to administer and interpret the VABS is an important skill for clinical social workers to acquire.

Consumption Adjustment Under Time-Varying Income Uncertainty, Douglas Steigerwald, Joon-Ho Hahm

Douglas G. Steigerwald

We study the effect of income uncertainty on consumption in a model that includes precautionary saving. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on time-series variation in income uncertainty. Our time-series measure of income uncertainty is constructed from a panel of forecasts. We find evidence of precautionary saving in that increases in income uncertainty are related to increases in aggregate rates of saving. We also find evidence that anticipated income growth rates have less explanatory power for consumption growth rates after conditioning on income uncertainty. The evidence indicates the presence of forward-looking consumers who gradually adjust precautionary savings in response …