Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Choosing Among Unequals: A Statistical Solution To A Stalemate, Durgesh Chandra Pathak

Durgesh Chandra Pathak

In Uttar Pradesh, a new tradition has been started of selecting B.Ed degree holders for a job in Primary Schools and it has been named "Vishisht BTC". Applying their own logic, the ruling governments use variuos criterion to select the candidates. The basic problem is that they have to choose candidates on the basis of merit of their marks in various exams. Now, it is well-established fact that marking is not similar in all universities/colleges. So for a same exam, there can be much inter-university as well as intra-university variation in marks given to students. The point is that student …

Factors Influencing Farmers’ Willingness To Protect Groundwater From Nonpoint Sources Of Pollution In The Lower Bhavani River Basin, Tamil Nadu, India, Sacchidananda Mukherjee

Sacchidananda Mukherjee

Farmers' perceptions about groundwater and drinking water quality are important, which influence their willingness to adopt protection measures either individually or collectively. This study attempts to capture the factors influencing farmers’ perceptions and their willingness to protect groundwater from nonpoint sources of pollution, and their willingness to support the local government to supply drinking water through alternative arrangements. Six villages are identified in the Lower Bhavani River Basin, Tamil Nadu, India on the basis of their long-term groundwater nitrate concentrations and sources of irrigation. A pre-structured questionnaire survey (face-to-face interviews) has been administered to 395 farm-households across six villages during …

Bayesian Identification, Selection And Estimation Of Functions In High-Dimensional Additive Models, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Michael Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

In this paper we propose an approach to both estimate and select unknown smooth functions in an additive model with potentially many functions. Each function is written as a linear combination of basis terms, with coefficients regularized by a proper linearly constrained Gaussian prior. Given any potentially rank deficient prior precision matrix, we show how to derive linear constraints so that the corresponding effect is identified in the additive model. This allows for the use of a wide range of bases and precision matrices in priors for regularization. By introducing indicator variables, each constrained Gaussian prior is augmented with a …

Mapping As A Knowledge Translation Tool For Ontario Early Years Centres: Views From Data Analysts And Managers, Anita Kothari, S. Michelle Driedger, Julia Bickford, Jason Morrison, Michael Sawada, Ian D. Graham, Eric Crighton

Anita Kothari

Background: Local Ontario Early Years Centres (OEYCs) collect timely and relevant local data, but knowledge translation is needed for the data to be useful. Maps represent an ideal tool to interpret local data. While geographic information system (GIS) technology is available, it is less clear what users require from this technology for evidence-informed program planning. We highlight initial challenges and opportunities encountered in implementing a mapping innovation (software and managerial decision-support) as a knowledge translation strategy.

Methods: Using focus groups, individual interviews and interactive software development events, we taped and transcribed verbatim our interactions with nine OEYCs in Ontario, Canada. …

Bayesian Density Forecasting Of Intraday Electricity Prices Using Multivariate Skew T Distributions, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Michael Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Electricity spot prices exhibit strong time series properties, including substantial periodicity, both inter-day and intraday serial correlation, heavy tails and skewness. In this paper we capture these characteristics using a first order vector autoregressive model with exogenous effects and a skew t distributed disturbance. The vector is longitudinal, in that it comprises observations on the spot price at intervals during a day. A band two inverse scale matrix is employed for the disturbance, as well as a sparse autoregressive coefficient matrix. This corresponds to a parsimonious dependency structure that directly relates an observation to the two immediately prior, and the …

Adaptive Estimation, Douglas G. Steigerwald

Douglas G. Steigerwald

No abstract provided.

The Risk Components Of Liquidity, Lorán Chollete, Randi Naes, Johannes Skjeltorp

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Cascading Infrastructure Failures: Avoidance And Response, George H. Baker, Cheryl J. Elliott

George H Baker

No critical infrastructure is self-sufficient. The complexity inherent in the interdependent nature of infrastructure systems complicates planning and preparedness for system failures. Recent wide-scale disruption of infrastructure on the Gulf Coast due to weather, and in the Northeast due to electric power network failures, dramatically illustrate the problems associated with mitigating cascading effects and responding to cascading infrastructure failures once they have occurred.

The major challenge associated with preparedness for cascading failures is that they transcend system, corporate, and political boundaries and necessitate coordination among multiple, disparate experts and authorities. This symposium brought together concerned communities including government and industry …