Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Environmental Factors Influencing Urban Homicide Clearance Rates: A Spatial Analysis Of New York City, Leslie W. Kennedy, Joel M. Caoplan, Eric L. Piza, Amanda L. Thomas

Publications and Research

In this paper, we explore the conditions under which clearance rates improve by looking at the experience across New York City. Using one agency provides a control on the administrative differences that appear across other jurisdictions that have been studied, usually through cross-national analysis. Our analysis uses Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) to identify environmental features that relate to closed versus open homicide cases using two years of New York City Police Department (NYPD) data. This analysis is supplemented with an investigation of precinct-wide social structure variables to examine how context matters in influencing closure rates.

Risk Factor And High-Risk Place Variations Across Different Robbery Targets In Denver, Colorado, Nathan T. Connealy, Eric L. Piza

Publications and Research

Purpose

Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) has been effectively used to spatially diagnose risk for crimes such as robbery, aggravated assault, and gun violence. An important contribution is to consider how risk differs across individual crimes and different target types. This study tests four different robbery target types in unique models to examine the potential for variation across significant risk factors and high-risk locations.

Methods

Using the online diagnostic software RTMDx, individual robbery models were run for four robbery target types in Denver, Colorado: commercial (businesses), carjacking (driver/vehicle), residential (home/dwelling), and street (pedestrians). A conjunctive analysis of case configurations was also …

Crime In Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling And Conjunctive Analysis Of Case Configurations To Explore The Dynamics Of Criminogenic Behavior Settings., Joel M. Caplan, Leslie W. Kennedy, Jeremy D. Barnum, Eric L. Piza

Publications and Research

Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is a geospatial crime analysis tool designed to diagnose environmental risk factors for crime and identify the places where their spatial influence is collocated to produce vulnerability for illegal behavior. However, the collocation of certain risk factors’ spatial influences may result in more crimes than the collocation of a different set of risk factors’ spatial influences. Absent from existing RTM outputs and methods is a straightforward method to compare these relative interactions and their effects on crime. However, as a multivariate method for the analysis of discrete categorical data, conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) can …

The Crime Kaleidoscope: A Cross-Jurisdictional Analysis Of Place Features And Crime In Three Urban Environments, Jeremy D. Barnum, Joel M. Caplan, Leslie W. Kennedy, Eric L. Piza

Publications and Research

Research identifies various place features (e.g., bars, schools, public transportation stops) that generate or attract crime. What is less clear is how the spatial influence of these place features compares across relatively similar environments, even for the same crime. In this study, risk terrain modeling (RTM), a geospatial crime forecasting and diagnostic tool, is utilized to identify place features that increase the risk of robbery and their particular spatial influence in Chicago, Illinois; Newark, New Jersey; and Kansas City, Missouri. The results show that the risk factors for robbery are similar between environments, but not necessarily identical. Further, some factors …

Vulnerability And Exposure To Crime: Applying Risk Terrain Modeling To The Study Of Assault In Chicago., Leslie W. Kennedy, Joel M. Caplan, Eric L. Piza, Henri Buccine-Schraeder

Publications and Research

Prior research has applied risk assessment and spatial analysis techniques to the study of violence. This paper builds on those results, tying the practical outcomes of spatial risk analysis methods to broader spatial issues on the articulation of risky places for aggravated assault. We begin by conceptualizing key relationships, addressing the effects of environmental factors on creating distinct, identifiable areas that are conducive to crime. Propositions of the theory of risky places are posed and then empirically tested using a GIS based program, RTMDx, on aggravated assault data in an urban area. Given the current thinking about crime vulnerability based …

Risk Terrain Modeling For Spatial Risk Assessment., Joel M. Caplan, Leslie W. Kennedy, Jeremy D. Barnum, Eric L. Piza

Publications and Research

Spatial factors can influence the seriousness and longevity of crime problems. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) identifies the spatial risks that come from features of a landscape and models how they colocate to create unique behavior settings for crime. The RTM process begins by testing a variety of factors thought to be geographically related to crime incidents. Valid factors are selected and then weighted to produce a final model that basically paints a picture of places where crime is statistically most likely to occur. This article addresses crime as the outcome event, but RTM can be applied to a variety of …

Joint Utility Of Event- Dependent And Environmental Crime Analysis Techniques For Violent Crime Forecasting, Joel M. Caplan, Leslie W. Kennedy, Eric L. Piza

Publications and Research

Violent crime incidents occurring in Irvington, New Jersey, in 2007 and 2008 are used to assess the joint analytical capabilities of point pattern analysis, hotspot mapping, near-repeat analysis, and risk terrain modeling. One approach to crime analysis suggests that the best way to predict future crime occurrence is to use past behavior, such as actual incidents or collections of incidents, as indicators of future behavior. An alternative approach is to consider the environment in which crimes occur and identify features of the landscape that would be conducive to crime. Thanks to advances in geographic information system technology and federally funded …

Risk Clusters, Hotspots, And Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling As An Algorithm For Police Resource Allocation Strategies, Leslie W. Kennedy, Joel M. Caplan, Eric L. Piza

Publications and Research

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the ‘‘best model’’ risk terrain derived from our analysis …