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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

An Evaluation Of The 2016 Election Polls In The United States, Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Joshua D. Clinton, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley Mcgeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen M. Olson, Douglas Rivers, Lydia Saad, G. Evans Witt, Christopher Wlezien Feb 2018

An Evaluation Of The 2016 Election Polls In The United States, Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Joshua D. Clinton, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley Mcgeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen M. Olson, Douglas Rivers, Lydia Saad, G. Evans Witt, Christopher Wlezien

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so, why? Those are among the central questions addressed by an American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) ad hoc committee. This paper presents the committee’s analysis of the performance of preelection polls in …


Effects Of A Government-Academic Partnership: Has The Nsf-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Improve The U.S. Statistical System?, Daniel H. Weinberg,, John M. Abowd, Robert F. Belli, Noel Cressie, David C. Folch, S. H. Holan, Margaret C. Levenstein, Kristen Olson, Jerome P. Reiter, Matthew D. Shapiro, Jolene Smyth, Leen-Kiat Soh, Bruce D. Spencer, Seth E. Spielman, Lars Vilhuber, Christopher K. Wikle Jan 2018

Effects Of A Government-Academic Partnership: Has The Nsf-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Improve The U.S. Statistical System?, Daniel H. Weinberg,, John M. Abowd, Robert F. Belli, Noel Cressie, David C. Folch, S. H. Holan, Margaret C. Levenstein, Kristen Olson, Jerome P. Reiter, Matthew D. Shapiro, Jolene Smyth, Leen-Kiat Soh, Bruce D. Spencer, Seth E. Spielman, Lars Vilhuber, Christopher K. Wikle

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

The National Science Foundation-Census Bureau Research Network (NCRN) was established in 2011 to create interdisciplinary research nodes on methodological questions of interest and significance to the broader research community and to the Federal Statistical System (FSS), particularly to the Census Bureau. The activities to date have covered both fundamental and applied statistical research and have focused at least in part on the training of current and future generations of researchers in skills of relevance to surveys and alternative measurement of economic units, households, and persons. This article focuses on some of the key research findings of the eight nodes, organized …


The Effects Of Respondent And Question Characteristics On Respondent Answering Behaviors In Telephone Interviews, Kristen Olson, Jolene Smyth, Amanda Ganshert Jan 2018

The Effects Of Respondent And Question Characteristics On Respondent Answering Behaviors In Telephone Interviews, Kristen Olson, Jolene Smyth, Amanda Ganshert

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

In a standardized telephone interview, respondents ideally are able to provide an answer that easily fits the response task. Deviations from this ideal question answering behavior are behavioral manifestations of breakdowns in the cognitive response process and partially reveal mechanisms underlying measurement error, but little is known about what question characteristics or types of respondents are associated with what types of deviations. Evaluations of question problems tend to look at one question characteristic at a time; yet questions are comprised of multiple characteristics, some of which are easier to experimentally manipulate (e.g., presence of a definition) than others (e.g., attitude …


Item Location, The Interviewer–Respondent Interaction, And Responses To Battery Questions In Telephone Surveys, Kristen Olson, Jolene Smyth, Beth Cochran Jan 2018

Item Location, The Interviewer–Respondent Interaction, And Responses To Battery Questions In Telephone Surveys, Kristen Olson, Jolene Smyth, Beth Cochran

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

Survey researchers often ask a series of attitudinal questions with a common question stem and response options, known as battery questions. Interviewers have substantial latitude in deciding how to administer these items, including whether to reread the common question stem on items after the first one or to probe respondents’ answers. Despite the ubiquity of use of these items, there is virtually no research on whether respondent and interviewer behaviors on battery questions differ over items in a battery or whether interview behaviors are associated with answers to these questions. This article uses a nationally representative telephone survey with audio-recorded …


The Effects Of Mismatches Between Survey Question Stems And Response Options On Data Quality And Responses, Jolene Smyth, Kristen Olson Jan 2018

The Effects Of Mismatches Between Survey Question Stems And Response Options On Data Quality And Responses, Jolene Smyth, Kristen Olson

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

Several questionnaire design texts emphasize a dual role of question wording: the wording needs to express what is being measured and tell respondents how to answer. Researchers tend to focus heavily on the first of these goals, but sometimes overlook the second, resulting in question wording that does not match the response options provided (i.e., mismatches). Common examples are yes/no questions with ordinal or nominal response options, open-ended questions with closed-ended response options, and check-all-that apply questions with forced-choice response options. A slightly different type of mismatch utilizes a question stem that can be read as asking for two different …