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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Migration And Housing Price Effects Of Place-Based College Scholarships, Timothy J. Bartik, Nathan Sotherland Dec 2015

Migration And Housing Price Effects Of Place-Based College Scholarships, Timothy J. Bartik, Nathan Sotherland

Timothy J. Bartik

Place-based college scholarships, such as the Kalamazoo Promise, provide students who live in a particular place, and/or who attend a particular school district, with generous college scholarships. An important potential benefit from such “Promise programs” is their short-term effects on local economic development. Generous Promise scholarships provide an incentive for families to locate in a particular place, which may change migration patterns, and potentially boost local employment and housing prices. Using data from the American Community Survey, this paper estimates the average effects of eight relatively generous Promise programs on migration rates and housing prices in their local labor market. …


Benefits Vs. Costs Of Business Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik Dec 2015

Benefits Vs. Costs Of Business Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


Higher Education, The Health Care Industry, And Metropolitan Regional Economic Development: What Can "Eds & Meds" Do For The Economic Fortunes Of A Metro Area's Residents?, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek Jan 2015

Higher Education, The Health Care Industry, And Metropolitan Regional Economic Development: What Can "Eds & Meds" Do For The Economic Fortunes Of A Metro Area's Residents?, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper examines the effects of expansions in higher educational institutions and the medical service industry on the economic development of a metropolitan area. This examination pulls together previous research and provides some new empirical evidence. We provide quantitative evidence of the magnitude of economic effects of higher education and medical service industries that occur through the mechanism of providing some export-base demand stimulus to a metropolitan economy. We also provide quantitative evidence on how much higher education institutions can boost a metropolitan economy through increasing the educational attainment of local residence. We estimate that medical service industries pay above …


The Effects Of Metropolitan Job Growth On The Size Distribution Of Family Income, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

The Effects Of Metropolitan Job Growth On The Size Distribution Of Family Income, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper examines how a metropolitan area's job growth affects its income distribution. The research uses annual Current Population Survey data on the income distribution in different metropolitan areas from 1979 through 1988. Faster metropolitan job growth increases real family income in the lowest income quintile by a significantly greater percentage than for the average family. Metropolitan job growth also increases the value of property owned by upper income quintiles, but property value effects are not large enough to offset the progressive effects of growth on labor income. Simulations indicate that economic development programs to increase metropolitan job growth will …


Federal Policy Towards State And Local Economic Development In The 1990s, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Federal Policy Towards State And Local Economic Development In The 1990s, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper suggests new federal policies towards state and local economic development assistance to business. I argue that there is some evidence that these programs can be effective in encouraging business growth and helping the unemployed. But state and local governments do not have the right incentives to adequately pursue national goals through economic development programs. State and local governments are not inclined to do quality evaluations of their programs and tend to favor business attraction programs over programs that might increase U.S. business productivity. In addition, it is unclear whether economic development efforts are most vigorously pursued by economically …


Economic Development Incentive Wars, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Economic Development Incentive Wars, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


Economic Development Strategies, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Economic Development Strategies, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper provides a guide to economic development policies for local government managers. Local economic development policies today include not only tax subsidies for branch plants, but also job training to provide workers to businesses, advice and support services for potential entrepreneurs, and extension services to help businesses modernize and export. To help local government managers, this paper suggests a number of guiding principles, including: local economic development should be pursued cooperatively across the local labor market; economic development programs should consider the quality of jobs created; tax subsidies are expensive per job created; development subsidies are more effective if …


Thoughts On American Manufacturing Decline And Revitalization, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Thoughts On American Manufacturing Decline And Revitalization, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


Maximum Score Estimates Of The Determinants Of Residential Mobility: Implications For The Value Of Residential Attachment And Neighborhood Amenities, Timothy J. Bartik, J. S. Butler, Jin-Tan Liu Jan 2015

Maximum Score Estimates Of The Determinants Of Residential Mobility: Implications For The Value Of Residential Attachment And Neighborhood Amenities, Timothy J. Bartik, J. S. Butler, Jin-Tan Liu

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper examines the determinants of the decision of low-income renters to move out of their current dwelling. Maximum score estimation is shown to be superior to ordinary discrete choice estimation techniques (probit, logit) for this problem, and for similar discrete choices that require revering a previously optimal decision. The estimation reveals psychological costs from moving for typical low income renters of at least 8% of their income ; these costs are even higher for older, longer tenure, or minority households. Policies that displace low income renters will have large social costs. In addition, the estimation results are used to …


What Should The Federal Government Be Doing About Urban Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

What Should The Federal Government Be Doing About Urban Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

The federal government should focus its policies towards economic development on areas in which the federal government has some unique advantages. Federal policy should: (1) discourage financial subsidies to specific large firms by state and local governments; (2) expand the federal role in economic development services in which national action has some special advantages, such as developing information on foreign markets, encouraging large national banks to be more involved in economic development, supporting the development of the "Information Superhighway," and encouraging new technology development; (3) provide modest support for state and local efforts to increase business productivity through technology extension …


Saturn And State Economic Development, Timothy J. Bartik, Charles Becker, Steve Lake, John Bush Jan 2015

Saturn And State Economic Development, Timothy J. Bartik, Charles Becker, Steve Lake, John Bush

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


Incentive Solutions, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Incentive Solutions, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper reviews the research literature relevant to economic development incentives provided by state and local governments, and recommends reforms in these incentives. I argue that the main problem with current incentive policies is that state and local governments often provide incentives that are not in the best interest of that state or local area, for example that are excessively costly per job created, or that provide jobs that do not improve the job opportunities of local residents. I suggest that reforms should be "bottom-up" rather than "top-down." Regulation of incentives by the federal government, or by international trade treaties, …


How Effects Of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary With Local Labor Market Conditions, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

How Effects Of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary With Local Labor Market Conditions, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper estimates how effects of shocks to local labor demand on local labor market outcomes vary with initial local economic conditions. The data are on U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The paper finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in reducing local unemployment rates if the local economy is initially depressed than if the local economy is booming. Demand shocks have greater effects on local wage rates if the local unemployment rate is initially low, but lesser effects if local job growth is initially high. These different effects of local demand shocks imply …


From Preschool To Prosperity: The Economic Payoff To Early Childhood Education, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

From Preschool To Prosperity: The Economic Payoff To Early Childhood Education, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

Bartik shows that investment in high-quality early childhood education has several long-term benefits, including higher adult earnings for program participants.


"Eds & Meds" And Metropolitan Economic Development, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek Jan 2015

"Eds & Meds" And Metropolitan Economic Development, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


What Should Michigan Be Doing To Promote Long-Run Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

What Should Michigan Be Doing To Promote Long-Run Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper argues that Michigan can take cost-effective actions to significantly improve the primary state economic development goal: higher per capita income of Michigan's residents. Higher per capita income of Michigan's residents can be achieved through state policy actions that use cost-effective means to either lower the marginal costs of businesses that expand in the state, or boost the skills of state residents. In this paper, I offer eight ideas for how to lower marginal business costs and boost skills. Four of these ideas focus on lowering marginal business costs. Four other ideas focus on boosting skills. For each of …


Local Economic Development Policies, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Local Economic Development Policies, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This chapter seeks to provide useful advice for local government policy towards economic development programs. The chapter: reviews the size and scope of local economic development programs in the United States; critically analyzes the various rationales offered for these programs; makes recommendations for what local policy should do about business attraction and incentives, business retention, new business development, high technology development, brownfield development, distressed neighborhoods, and downtowns; and discusses how local economic development programs should be organized, managed, and evaluated.


Economic Development And Black Economic Success, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Economic Development And Black Economic Success, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


What Proportion Of Children Stay In The Same Location As Adults, And How Does This Vary Across Location And Groups?, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

What Proportion Of Children Stay In The Same Location As Adults, And How Does This Vary Across Location And Groups?, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper provides new information on what proportion of individuals spend their adult work lives in their childhood metropolitan area or state. I also examine how this proportion varies across different demographic groups, and with the size and growth rate of the metropolitan area. I find that the proportion of individuals who spend most of their adulthood in their childhood metropolitan area is surprisingly high. Furthermore, this proportion does not go down as much as one might think for smaller or slower-growing metropolitan areas, or for college-educated persons. These findings imply that state and local investments in children may pay …


The Employment And Fiscal Effects Of Michigan's Mega Tax Credit Program, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek Jan 2015

The Employment And Fiscal Effects Of Michigan's Mega Tax Credit Program, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper estimates that Michigan's MEGA tax credit program to attract and retain businesses has large employment and fiscal benefits. MEGA provides discretionary tax credits to businesses, with the tax credit tied to the personal income taxes paid by employees on the new or retained jobs. We estimate the economic effects of MEGA using the Upjohn Institute's REMI model, and the research literature on how business location decisions respond to taxes. We estimate the fiscal effects of MEGA based on the research literature on how government spending and revenue respond to state personal income and population. The estimates suggest a …


Increasing The Economic Development Benefits Of Higher Education In Michigan, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Increasing The Economic Development Benefits Of Higher Education In Michigan, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper considers how a state such as Michigan can increase the economic development benefits of higher education. Research evidence suggests that higher education increases local economic development principally by increasing the quality of the local workforce, and secondarily by increasing local innovative ideas. These economic development benefits of higher education can be increased by: 1) competent management of conventional economic development programs that focus on business attraction and retention; 2) policies that focus on increasing local job skills by educating the state's residents, as opposed to attracting in-migrants; 3) policies that address specific "market failures" in how higher education …


Can Economic Development Programs Be Evaluated?, Timothy J. Bartik, Richard D. Bingham Jan 2015

Can Economic Development Programs Be Evaluated?, Timothy J. Bartik, Richard D. Bingham

Timothy J. Bartik

The question addressed in this paper seems simple: Can economic development programs be evaluated? But the answer is not simple because of the nature of evaluation. To determine a program's effectiveness requires a sophisticated evaluation because it requires the evaluator to distinguish changes due to the program from changes due to nonprogram factors. The evaluator must focus on the outcomes caused by the program rather than the program's procedures. Evaluations can be divided into two categories--process or formative evaluations and outcome, impact, or summative evaluations. Process evaluations focus on how a program is delivered. Impact evaluations focus on the program's …


Evaluating The Impacts Of Local Economic Development Policies On Local Economic Outcomes: What Has Been Done And What Is Doable?, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Evaluating The Impacts Of Local Economic Development Policies On Local Economic Outcomes: What Has Been Done And What Is Doable?, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper argues that more rigorous evaluations of local economic development policies are feasible. Programs that aid selected small firms can be rigorously evaluated using an experimental approach, without excluding firms from assistance, by randomly assigning some firms to receive more intense marketing efforts by the program. Programs that aid distressed local areas can be rigorously evaluated by random assignment of the program among eligible distressed areas. If an experiment cannot be done, a variety of statistical approaches can be used to compare firms or areas that use the program with comparison groups of firms or areas that do not …


Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2015

Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

Anti-poverty policy in the U.S. has emphasized labor supply policies, such as welfare reform or job training. Anti-poverty policy in the U.S. has not emphasized policies to increase labor demand for the poor, such as public employment or subsidizing private employers to hire the poor. What are the aggregate effects of such policies on wages and unemployment of different groups? This paper estimates and simulates a model with several types of labor, using data from the Current Population Survey on state labor markets. The simulations suggest that forcing more disadvantaged persons into the labor market can displace many other persons …


Simulating The Effects Of Michigan's Mega Tax Credit Program On Job Creation And Fiscal Benefits, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek Jan 2015

Simulating The Effects Of Michigan's Mega Tax Credit Program On Job Creation And Fiscal Benefits, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek

Timothy J. Bartik

This paper simulates job and fiscal impacts of Michigan’s MEGA tax credit program for job creation. Under plausible assumptions about how such credits affect business location decisions, the net costs per job created of the MEGA program are simulated to be of modest size. The job creation impacts of MEGA are simulated to be considerably larger than devoting similar dollar resources to general business tax cuts. The simulation methodology developed here is applicable to incentives in other states.