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From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2024 issue of Parameters. We open this issue with a special “In Memoriam” by General Charles A. Flynn, Commander US Army Pacific, honoring the life and legacies of our director and consummate colleague, Carol V. Evans. We dedicate this issue to her. General Flynn’s memoriam is followed by an In Focus commentary on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. We then feature three forums covering the Russia-Ukraine War, the Middle East, and Professional Development. This issue also contains special essays on the role of professional writing, the US Army War College’s Civil-Military Relations Center, …

Review: Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers And Moscow’S Struggle For Ukraine, Sarah Lohmann

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: Anna Arutunyan

Reviewed by Dr. Sarah Lohmann, teaching faculty, University of Washington

Dr. Sarah Lohmann, editor of What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare (US Army War College Press, 2022), calls Anna Arutunyan's latest book, Hybrid Warriors, a "must-read for senior members of the US defense community" that "encourages strategists to think beyond segmented operations to ensure Russia's broad defeat." Lohmann highlights the book's value in that it provides "perspectives that have not yet been heard in the West," as Arutunyan "relies on Russian sources from media and academia, as well as hundreds of interviews." Lohmann also notes …

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers will note a few differences in the formatting for this issue: we are now using endnotes instead of footnotes to facilitate switching from pdf to html via Adobe's Liquid App; also, readers will be able to click on each endnote number to view the full endnote and then switch back to the text to resume reading. Please drop us a note to let us know how you like the changes. More are coming!

Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

International Competition In The High North: Kingston Conference On International Security 2022

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional study center, the Ted Stevens …

The Decision To Invade: An Internal Perspective To The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine, Muhammad Damar Shafy Ramadhan

Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia marked a new turning point in the history of the 21^st century and has had far-reaching effects for much of the globalized world. The intensity of such an unexpected and unprovoked war has made it crucial to seek out the reasons why Russia decided to wage war on Ukraine. As such, there is a need to look for a deeper origin of the conflict, especially the unique circumstances that led to such policy being pursued. A comprehensive and theoretical approach that connects all the dots into one chronological picture is required. To that …

Book Review: Without Flyers, No Tannenberg: Aviation On The Eastern Front Of 1914—Evolution Of A Critical Role For Modern Warfare, Greg Pickell

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Authors: Terrence J. Finnegan, Helmut Jäger, and Carl J. Bobrow

Reviewed by Greg Pickell, US Army lieutenant colonel (retired)

Providing valuable historical context, Without Flyers, No Tannenberg “offers a wealth of previously unavailable information and provided needed context to the German triumph over the Russian 2nd Army in the opening weeks of the First World War.” The book describes how aviation developed in Germany and Russia and offers detailed maps and graphics. The latter part of the book covers events following the defeat of Russian General Samsonov’s 2nd Army, to include the Battle of the Masurian Lakes and the campaign …

The Future Role Of Strategic Landpower, Philip F. Baker, Gregory L. Cantwell, Timothy L. Clark, Gregory R. Foxx, Justin M. Magula, Curtis S. Perkins, Kirk A. Sanders, Timothy A. Sikorski, Carl L. Zeppegno

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower. This publication serves as part of an enduring effort to evaluate strategic …

Srad Director's Corner: Us Army War College Russia-Ukraine War Study Project, Eric Hartunian

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College is analyzing the operational events and activities of the Russia-Ukraine War to understand the war’s strategic implications for the US Army and its role within the NATO Alliance. Analysis will further inform theater and national US strategy and may benefit Army doctrine and concepts vis-à-vis the Russian threat. It will also examine how US and allied defense policies should adjust to the current character of war. Lessons learned from Ukraine are relevant to the evolving challenge in the Pacific in the near term and are opportunities for the United States …

2023 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Usawc Ssi

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of …

Never Enough: Eu Military Spending Challenges In The Face Of Open Conflict, Katherine Wallentine

The Journal of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Development

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent a jolt of tension and anxiety throughout the European Union, as well as the rest of the world. Lawmakers and strategists scrambled to find a suitable response in the immediate aftermath and now, a year later, the conversation continues as to what the best course of action is for the EU. Should it amplify and radically increase its supranational defense budget and if so, how should it accomplish this monumental task? How much of it should fall on the Member States to meet the two percent threshold as laid out by …

Analysis Of Us-Nato Entanglement In Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: 'Western Axis' An Effort To Contain China In Europe, Syifa Maulidina, Oddie Bagus Saputra

Journal of Terrorism Studies

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is a complex one. Some countries intend to defend national interests regarding border areas, energy sources, and international trade routes such as the United States, NATO, and China. The United States-NATO is trying to maintain the status quo over the Euro-Arctic region. Meanwhile, China took advantage of this conflict to expand into the European market. In addition, China has also benefited in the military sector to modernize its military arsenal and cheap energy sources amid the global energy crisis from Russia. Therefore, to help the process of analyzing the issue, this study uses the concept of balancing …

Bigger Is Better? Re-Evaluating Nato Enlargement In The Post-Cold War Period, Matthew Mccracken

Senior Honors Theses

Since the end of the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance has grown substantially from its pre-1990 boundary between the two Germanys to encompass 15 new members with its border pressing eastward toward the former Soviet states and up to Russia proper. At the same time, East-West relations have sunk from a high point in the 1990s to a new low unseen since the Cold War culminating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Top-ranking officials on both sides of the Atlantic cautioned successive U.S. administrations against heedlessly seeking to admit new members into NATO for fear that it …

From The Acting Editor In Chief, Conrad C. Crane

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Spring 2023 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary and the SRAD Director’s Corner focused on Afghanistan, three forums, and two Reviews and Replies.

Countering Terrorism On Tomorrow’S Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security And Resiliency (Nato Coe-Dat Handbook 2), Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, Frank J. Kuzminski, Marcus Mohlin, Aleksander Olech, Wuraola Oyewusi, Gabriel T. Raicu, Silke Ruhl, Sabrina Schulz, Máté Tóth, Megan A. Ward

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing …

What Ukraine Taught Nato About Hybrid Warfare, Sarah J. Lohmann, Chuck Benson, Vytautas Butrimas, Georgios Giannoulis, Gabriel Raicu, Michael Bervell, Milagro Castilleja, Chris Clyde, Christopher J. Eaton, Alex Elmore, Ryan Fisk, Erin Hodges, Frank J. Kuzminski, Vishwa Padigepati, Caitlin Quirk, Brenton M. Riddle, Shuo Zhang, Lucas Cox, Samira Oakes

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states.

Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green …

Securing Russia: Seeking Ontological Security In The Arctic, Brian W. Cole

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced an abrupt discontinuity in its sense of identity. This break in identity, and a more profound lost sense of self, creates a strong need to reestablish continuity. The need to regain that sense of self is strong and can supersede other concerns. Ontological security theory proposes that the need to maintain identity can outweigh physical security considerations. This study uses game theory methodology and the Arctic as a contextual example to demonstrate that ontological security-seeking actors are willing to sacrifice physical security. Today, the current conditions in the Arctic reflect a …

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Parameters Summer 2022, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Dysfunctional Warfare: The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine, Rob Johnson

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was based on false premises, faulty assumptions, and a weak strategy. As the conflict has unfolded, heavy losses have imposed a strain on available Russian manpower. The Russian army reached a culminating point outside Kyiv and has exhibited little sign of operational learning. By contrast, Ukrainians have fought an existential war, making good use of dispersed light infantry tactics with high motivation levels. Western support has allowed them to compensate for their deficiencies in armaments and munitions. This commentary also shows military and policy leaders how the political context continues to impose limitations on the Ukrainians.

Putin’S Invasion Of Ukraine In 2022: Implications For Strategic Studies, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This special commentary examines critical issues for the field of strategic studies raised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including the waning of major war, strategic coercion, and “War Amongst the People.” Drawing on previous scholarship and current events, this commentary considers the questions raised by the first major war of the twenty-first century. It provides recommendations for scholars and senior leaders on how to work together to address the questions of strategy and policy that have and continue to arise as the war progresses.

Srad Director's Corner: Russia’S Strategy And Its War On Ukraine, George Shatzer

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In this contribution, Colonel George Shatzer, director of the Strategy Research and Analysis Department of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses books of relevance to US Joint planners and strategists, as well as those of allies and strategic partners. He applies his experience and education as a US Army senior strategist to extract insights useful to anyone contemplating how to confront the challenges of today’s strategic environment.

‘Vox Populi?:’ Assessing Nato Popularity Relative To Political And Economic Indicators In Selected Member Nations, Zachary W. Cheek

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper seeks to identify the impact of political and economic conditions on a nation’s popularity/favorability ratings towards North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the world’s most powerful military alliance. It is found that in random-effect models there exists a significant positive relationship between a country’s democratic strength and favorability, as well as a negative relationship regarding unemployment. In fixed-effect models, however, there is slight evidence of a positive relationship with per-capita GDP, as well as negative relationships with the unemployment rate and the trade index. Overall, differences in member-nations largely account for whether democratic or macroeconomic conditions influence support.

Cold Turkey: Will The Recent Freeze In Turkish Nato Relations Spiral Into A Bigger Problem?, Ashlyn Cowell, Reagan Nelson, Paul Prentice, Brent Schuliger, Nathan Waite

Liberty University Journal of Statesmanship & Public Policy

Situated in a strategic location bridging the gap between Europe and Asia, Turkey has been a valuable member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for decades. However, recent events have inflamed underlying tensions between Turkey and other NATO member states. This research seeks to determine if the escalation will cause Turkey to withdraw from the alliance within the next five years. In order to accomplish this, our team conducted both quantitative and qualitative research on current and historical economic, political, and cultural conditions driving the conflict. Following this research, our team synthesized the data using structured analytic techniques (SATs) …

Reversing The Readiness Assumption: A Proposal For Fiscal And Military Effectiveness, Jason W. Warren, John A. Bonin

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Looming budget cuts will necessitate adept management to retain a military capable of competing and winning by avoiding the mistakes made in prior drawdowns. This article presents a framework for government and defense leaders to prepare for the coming drawdown and plan for the necessary capacity of tomorrow across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic framework.

Europe: A Strategy For A Regional And Middle Power, Jean-Yves Haine, Cynthia Salloum

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

As the European Union deals with yet another crisis— the COVID-19 pandemic—it must adopt a grand strategy based on unity, policy, and proportionality: cohesion over inaction, policy over process, and regional imperatives over global ambitions. An analysis of past strategy documents and a study of current international trends stress the need for a Union capable of shaping its own environment rather than reacting to it. The pandemic should accelerate Europe’s journey toward power maturity and responsibility.

Greater Security Cooperation: Us Allies In Europe And East Asia, Tongfi Kim, Luis Simón

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Growing Sino-Russian coordination necessitates greater security cooperation between US Allies in Europe and East Asia. US Allies in both regions face remarkably similar threats requiring similar operational concepts, capabilities, and technologies. Further, these Allies must hedge against the specter of US abandonment. An exploration of the links between the two geographically distant US Alliance networks illustrates the Allies’ perspectives on US extended deterrence and highlights opportunities to devise better policies for cooperation.

A Hard Look At Hard Power: Assessing The Defense Capabilities Of Key Us Allies And Security Partners—Second Edition, Gary J. Schmitt Mr.

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

With the United States facing two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as additional security threats from North Korea, Iran, and jihadist terrorism, a critical advantage for the United States is its global network of alliances and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy states, “Alliances and partnerships are crucial to our strategy, providing a durable asymmetric strategic advantage that no competitor or rival can match.”

The advantage of having military allies and partners is enhanced by the core capacity of the American military having remained largely the same over the past decade, though the global security …

Security Threats, American Pressure, And The Role Of Key Personnel: How Nato’S Defence Planning Process Is Alleviating The Burden-Sharing Dilemma, John R. Deni

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

In 2017, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, none of the capability targets identified in NATO’s quadrennial NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) were left on the negotiating table. Previously, capability targets were identified by the alliance’s secretariat, but they remained unfilled as allies failed to assume responsibility for them.

This monograph examines the 2014–18 iteration of the NDPP, which represented a stunning turnaround in transatlantic burden sharing. The analysis reveals a combination of factors—the changed threat environment, political pressure from Washington, and the role of “policy entrepreneurs” working within NATO—best explain the alliance’s success in …

Turkey And The United States On The Brink: Implications For Nato And The Us-Turkish Strategic And Military Partnership, Kamal A. Beyoghlow

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

This monograph analyzes the current political tensions between the United States and Turkey and suggests ways to manage them. The two countries have been strategic allies since at least the end of World War II—Turkey became a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member and participated with its military forces in the Korea War, and during the Cold War protected NATO’s southern flank against Soviet communism, and Turkey’s military and intelligence services maintained close relationships with their Western and Israeli counterparts. These relationships were not without problems, due mostly to differences over minority and civil rights in Turkey and over Turkey’s invasion …