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Developing A Best Practice Model For Forecasting Annual Franchise Fee Revenue: The Case Of The Lexington-Fayette Urban-County Government, Ian K. Banta

MPA/MPP/MPFM Capstone Projects

The LFUCG currently forecasts their revenues internally and has their forecasts validated by the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at the University of Kentucky. However, it does not have a well-developed method of forecasting franchise fee revenue. They are not alone, as the literature on revenue forecasting that finds that between 50 and 75 percent of local governments rely on informal, judgmental approaches to forecast revenue instead of more formal, quantitative techniques. However, the literature also indicates that these judgmental approaches are less accurate.

Inspired by a study of St. Petersburg, Florida by Gianakis et al., and in …