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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams
A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams
Publications and Research
Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …
The New York Police Officer: Democratic And Moral Accountability In Conflict, Sarah Ryan, Dan Williams
The New York Police Officer: Democratic And Moral Accountability In Conflict, Sarah Ryan, Dan Williams
Publications and Research
The following case draws upon two views of accountability. One is democratic accountability the other is accountability to one's own moral conscience. As the story unfolds, other facts may get in the way but these central views should not be forgotten. The focus of this case is on the individual. However, the material also covers institutional decisions and policies that deserve considering. The institutional story is the background, not the foreground, of this case. Yet, when the institutional features are considered, they may give new insight to the individuals' decisions.