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Urban Adaptation To Mega-Drought: Anticipatory Water Modeling, Policy, And Planning For The Urban Southwest, Patricia Gober, David A. Sampson, Ray Quay, Dave D. White, Winston T. L. Chow

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This paper uses ‘Medieval’ drought conditions from the 12th Century to simulate the implications of severe and persistent drought for the future of water resource management in metropolitan Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies are not sustainable over …