Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Power Of Weakness: Coercion In The American Alliance Network In Asia, Noelle Claire Troutman

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents from University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

How can a weaker ally, or ‘protégé’ coerce their stronger partner, or ‘patron’ for greater autonomy? My primary argument is that protégés have agency; they can and do coerce their patron. I ask two interrelated questions within this study. First, when can allied preferences diverge? Second, if allied disagreement is likely, how can a protégé coerce their patron for greater autonomy? I argue that protégés with insecure regimes can threaten their own collapse to get their patron to give into their demands. This is a tough lie to get away with; patrons are therefore likely to concede when their protégé …

Brazilian Alliance Perspectives: Towards A Brics Development–Security Alliance?, Zhen 'Arc' Han, Mihaela Papa

Political Science & Global Affairs Faculty Publications

Scholars studying BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have traditionally argued that it is a development-focused partnership and not a military/security-based alliance. Yet BRICS members have been deepening their security integration, and Russia and China have been creating an alliance in the background. Although BRICS middle powers have traditionally demonstrated an aversion towards alliances, Brazil actively deepened security cooperation among BRICS members during its BRICS presidency in 2019. How does Brazil view alliances in contemporary power competition? This study examines Brazil’s perceptions by introducing and analysing a new data set of Brazilian expert discourses on alliances since 1990 …

Nato Enlargement And Us Grand Strategy: A Net Assessment, Rajan Menon, William Ruger

Publications and Research

NATO did not dissolve following the Soviet Union’s collapse and the end of the Cold War. Instead, the alliance expanded, in stages—from 16 members at its Cold War peak to 30 in 2020. While NATO enlargement alone did not cause the deterioration of US–Russian relations, it did contribute significantly to that outcome. Champions of NATO expansion aver that it maintains peace in Europe and promotes democracy in East-Central Europe. They add that Russia has nothing to fear. But Russia’s leaders have always seen NATO expansion differently. The article also examines NATO’s enlargement as it relates to US post-Cold War grand …

Alliance Cohesion: Connecting The Disconnect In Alliance Reliability, Noelle Troutman

Department of Political Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Alliances are important to understanding international peace and conflict, but disagreement exists among scholars regarding alliance reliability with findings of allies fulfilling alliance obligations 25-75% of the time (Sabrosky, 1980; Leeds, et al., 2000; Berkemeier and Fuhrmann, 2018). What mechanism ultimately lies at the center of this puzzle? I argue that alliance cohesion, specifically differences in cohesion relating to internal dynamics of alliance structure and power distribution, lie at the center of this empirical disconnect. I define alliance cohesion as the ability of allies to agree on security preferences and appropriate methods to meet these ends. In this study I …

Shield Or Glue? Key Policy Issues Constraining Or Enhancing Multinational Collective Ballistic Missile Defense, Marxen Kyriss

Department of Political Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This dissertation explores a series of eleven political factors nations would have to consider should they contemplate joining a military coalition or alliance that uses ballistic missile defense (BMD); which of these factors incentivize or dissuade states from joining this coalition, and whether they vary from region to region, or state to state. It uses a two-stage case-study-based qualitative research design, in which the first theory generation phase was comprised of 21 experimentation events over a ten-year period with BMD policy experts from 24 nations led by the United States Strategic Command known as NIMBLE TITAN. The results of these …

Theory, Data, And Deterrence: A Response To Kenwick, Vasquez, And Powers, Brett Ashley Leeds, Jesse C. Johnson

Political Science Faculty Publications

Kenwick, Vasquez, and Powers question whether empirical evidence supports the claim that defense pacts deter conflict as our prior research has concluded. We review the theoretical argument for why defense pacts should deter conflict and consider the challenges inherent in evaluating deterrence using observational data. We then consider whether the research design choices of Kenwick et al. improve upon our research design. We demonstrate that claims that defense pacts deter conflict are robust to many of these changes in research design, and we argue that the consequential difference, while perhaps appropriate for testing the Steps-to-War argument, is not appropriate for …

The Role Of Iran Policy The Saudi-American Rift, Christopher Parmly

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores what effect Saudi and American policy differences towards Iran have had on their bilateral relations. It is based on the recent thaw in Iran-U.S. relations, and the critical reaction of the Saudi government towards this policy. The question has two components – first, how severe the current Saudi-American rift is, and second, to what extent it can be traced to their differences over Iran. The topic will be addressed through process-tracing methods.

The thesis concludes that there is indeed a rift in Saudi-U.S. relations marked by an increasingly assertive and independent Saudi foreign policy, though its alliance …

Careful Commitments: Democratic States And Alliance Design, Daina Chiba, Jesse C. Johnson, Brett Ashley Leeds

Political Science Faculty Publications

Evidence suggests that leaders of democratic states experience high costs from violating past commitments. We argue that because democratic leaders foresee the costs of violation, they are careful to design agreements they expect to have a high probability of fulfilling. This may cause democratic leaders to prefer flexible or limited commitments. We evaluate our argument by analyzing the design of alliance treaties signed by countries of the world between 1815 and 2003. We find that alliances formed among democratic states are more likely to include obligations for future consultation rather than precommitting leaders to active conflict, and defense pacts formed …