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Articles 1 - 30 of 92
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Automated Update Tools To Augment The Wisdom Of Crowds In Geopolitical Forecasting, Amy Summerville, Cara Widmer, Brandon Minnery, Ion Juvina, Subashini Ganapathy
Automated Update Tools To Augment The Wisdom Of Crowds In Geopolitical Forecasting, Amy Summerville, Cara Widmer, Brandon Minnery, Ion Juvina, Subashini Ganapathy
Psychology Faculty Publications
Despite the importance of predictive judgments, individual human forecasts are frequently less accurate than those of even simple prediction algorithms. At the same time, not all forecasts are amenable to algorithmic prediction. Here, we describe the evaluation of an automated prediction tool that enabled participants to create simple rules that monitored relevant indicators (e.g., commodity prices) to automatically update forecasts. We examined these rules in both a pool of previous participants in a geopolitical forecasting tournament (Study 1) and a naïve sample recruited from Mechanical Turk (Study 2). Across the two studies, we found that automated updates tended to improve …
The Effects Of Actions And Characteristics In The Perception Of Aggressive Intentions : The Case Of Russia Border States After The 2022 Invasion Of Ukraine, Noah Duteil
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How alliance structures form and why states balance, bandwagon, or remain neutral against other states is an enduring and important question in international relations. This thesis adds to the discussion of how states make alliance decisions by testing whether perceptions matter in predicting state balancing behavior and by proposing a new theoretical framework which allows for a better understanding of the mechanisms which drive the perception of aggressive intentions as a factor within Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory. In this thesis, I explore the construction of threat through a comparative case study analysis of border states of Russia following …
The Complex Landscape Of Lgbtq+ Inclusion Within The Politics Of Africa And The Dynamics Of Anti-Lgbtq+ Laws And Development, Barbara Agyapong
The Complex Landscape Of Lgbtq+ Inclusion Within The Politics Of Africa And The Dynamics Of Anti-Lgbtq+ Laws And Development, Barbara Agyapong
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The politics of LGBTQ+ inclusion has undergone significant transformations worldwide, reflecting evolving societal attitudes, advancements in human rights, and the increasing global recognition of LGBTQ+ rights. However, the politics of LGBTQ+ inclusion in Africa presents a diverse and intricate landscape, characterized by variations in attitudes, legal frameworks, and societal acceptance across the continent. This study explores the complex and evolving dynamics of Anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa, with some countries making strides towards LGBTQ+ inclusion by repealing colonial-era legislation, while others have become more repressive. Notably, countries such as Angola, Cape Verde, Lesotho, Mozambique, Sao Tome and Principe, and Seychelles have …
Maximizing Social Equity As A Pillar Of Public Administration: An Examination Of Cannabis Dispensary Licensing In Pennsylvania, A. Lee Hannah, Daniel J. Mallinson, Lauren Azevedo
Maximizing Social Equity As A Pillar Of Public Administration: An Examination Of Cannabis Dispensary Licensing In Pennsylvania, A. Lee Hannah, Daniel J. Mallinson, Lauren Azevedo
Political Science Faculty Publications
Public administration upholds four pillars of an administrative practice: economy, efficiency, effectiveness, and social equity. The question arises, however, how do administrators balance effectiveness and social equity when implementing policy? Can the values contributing to administrative decisions be measured? This study leverages the expansion of medical cannabis programs in the states to interrogate these questions. The awarding of dispensary licenses in Pennsylvania affords the ability to determine the effect of social equity scoring on license award decisions, relative to criteria that represent the other pillars. The results show that safety and business acumen were the most important determining factors in …
Facebook Algorithm Changes May Have Amplified Local Republican Parties, Kevin Reuning, Anne Whitesell, A. Lee Hannah
Facebook Algorithm Changes May Have Amplified Local Republican Parties, Kevin Reuning, Anne Whitesell, A. Lee Hannah
Political Science Faculty Publications
In this research note we document changes to the rate of comments, shares, and reactions on local Republican Facebook pages. Near the end of 2018, local Republican parties started to see a much higher degree of interactions on their posts compared to local Democratic parties. We show how this increase in engagement was unique to Facebook and happened across a range of over a thousand local parties. In addition, we use a changepoint model to identify when the change happened and find it lines up with reported information about the change in Facebook’s algorithm in 2018. We conclude that it …
The Balance Of Convertibility: Manipulating External Support In Civil War, Kimberly L. Wolfe
The Balance Of Convertibility: Manipulating External Support In Civil War, Kimberly L. Wolfe
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Despite the pervasive trend in civil war of multiple sponsors backing rebels or the government, there is surprisingly minimal analysis on how the balance of support influences conflict duration. Building on the research of Sawyer et al. (2017), who find that the “fungibility” of external support leads to longer civil war, this thesis contributes a new scoring method for analyzing the balance of “fungible” (hereafter “convertible”) support among combatants (rebels versus government), discovering that a balance of convertibility contributes to shorter conflict. Convertible resources are those that combatants manipulate to enhance their warfighting capacity, such as funding, while troops or …
What Makes States Comply With Their Environmental Treaty Commitments : A Comparative Case Analysis Of Australia And Canada During The Kyoto Protocol, Brandon Enric Weeber
What Makes States Comply With Their Environmental Treaty Commitments : A Comparative Case Analysis Of Australia And Canada During The Kyoto Protocol, Brandon Enric Weeber
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Climate change, or global warming at the time, made a significant public outcry in the 1970s. Two major international treaties, the Montreal Protocol of 1987 and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, were created from the spark of international demand for action. Why is it that after such a movement, the global community still fails to cooperate on climate change action? What makes a state comply with its international environmental treaty commitments, like the Kyoto Protocol? This thesis' research findings indicate that neither public opinion, elite framing of climate change as a threat, nor a state's capacity impact a state's compliance …
All Infrastructure Projects Lead To Beijing : How The Belt And Road Initiative Has Influenced China's Regional Policy, Katherine Grof
All Infrastructure Projects Lead To Beijing : How The Belt And Road Initiative Has Influenced China's Regional Policy, Katherine Grof
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What are Beijing’s intentions behind the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? China’s foreign policy efforts between 2010 and 2017 are analyzed by comparing five indicators to BRI project spending to understand the goals driving the initiative. Five indicators are used to compare how China’s interest between Belt participants and Road participants: image building, economic volatility, public opinion, energy resources, and geostrategic location. These indicators are applied to four case study BRI participants to rate China’s interest and then compare that to overall BRI project spending. The four case studies are Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from the Belt portion of BRI and …
The Level Of Trust Between International Election Observers And Incumbents In Unconsolidated Democracies, Rogers Mtui
The Level Of Trust Between International Election Observers And Incumbents In Unconsolidated Democracies, Rogers Mtui
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A great deal of research focuses on the question of why incumbents invite IEOs but do not explicitly explored the root cause of why cheating in elections occurs despite the presence of IEOs. The occurrence when incumbents in young democracies invite international election observers (IEOs) and nevertheless cheat in elections has not been fully explored. This research advances the following expectation: incumbents seeking international benefits and whose electoral institutions are not fully mature are more likely to invite IEOs and cheat in an election. This is due to the ability of the incumbents who are seeking for the reelection to …
Clinging To Power: Authoritarian Leaders And Coercive Effectiveness, Christian J. Wolfe
Clinging To Power: Authoritarian Leaders And Coercive Effectiveness, Christian J. Wolfe
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This study identifies three tactics authoritarian leaders use to attempt to effectively coerce their citizens without losing power: 1) performance legitimacy, 2) nationalist legitimacy, and 3) institutional legitimacy. To demonstrate these tactics of what I call “coercive effectiveness,” the author employs a most-different-systems analysis on the regimes of Xi Jinping (2012 2015) and Bashar al-Assad (2000-2004). The author finds that coercion is more likely to be effective under the following conditions: 1) when leaders use economic performance and institutionalist strategies rather than nationalist tactics, 2) when an authoritarian leader climbs the ladder to power rather than inheriting leadership and 3) …
The State And Cannabis : What Is Success? A Comparative Analysis Of Cannabis Policy In The United States Of America, Uruguay, And Canada, Gideon C. Cunningham
The State And Cannabis : What Is Success? A Comparative Analysis Of Cannabis Policy In The United States Of America, Uruguay, And Canada, Gideon C. Cunningham
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Globally, the policies that states engage in concerning the cultivation, production, distribution, and sale of recreational cannabis in the 21st century is changing rapidly. Three countries have now legalized, regulated, and implemented recreational cannabis frameworks, albeit in starkly different ways. These countries are The United States of America, Uruguay, and Canada. This research identifies the contradictory nature of cannabis policy goals and compares the similarities and differences of each countries’ recreational cannabis framework. It proposes a theory of understanding the contradictory nature of creating cannabis policies post-legalization and presents a framework from which to analyze the success of individual cannabis …
A Model Of Regime Change: The Impact Of Arab Spring Throughout The Middle East And North Africa, Omar Khalfan Bizuru
A Model Of Regime Change: The Impact Of Arab Spring Throughout The Middle East And North Africa, Omar Khalfan Bizuru
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This study examined the catalysts for social movements around the globe; specifically, why and how the Arab Spring uprisings led to regime change in Tunisia, why they transformed into civil war in some countries of the Middle East and North Africa (Syria), and why they did not lead to significant change at all in other places (Bahrain). The overall results of the study confirmed that political and socio-economic grievances caused the Arab uprisings in Tunisia, Bahrain, and Syria. Tunisian protesters succeeded in regime change because of a united and structured social movement leading to an effective transitional democracy in the …
China’S Legal Environment For Domestic Ngos: Standardized Policies For Greater Party-State Control Over Civil Society, Kelly E. Tursic
China’S Legal Environment For Domestic Ngos: Standardized Policies For Greater Party-State Control Over Civil Society, Kelly E. Tursic
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This thesis examines one angle of state-society relations in authoritarian states through the lens of Chinese nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and their legal environment. While grassroots organizations have not prompted political liberalization in China, they have not been entirely co-opted by the party-state either. Through an examination of policy changes, a study of 120 organizations, and a case study of a non-profit incubator, this thesis explores whether the political environment for China’s domestic NGOs varies by geographic region and issue area. The findings suggest there is not significant variation as the party-state has implemented standardized policies for increased control over civil …
Offensive Cyber Operations: An Examination Of Their Revolutionary Capabilities, Madelyn Wardle
Offensive Cyber Operations: An Examination Of Their Revolutionary Capabilities, Madelyn Wardle
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Since the cyber realm has become a prevalent area in society, states have been developing ways to use this realm to their advantage. Popular literature asserts that cyber attacks are equalizing, frequently-occurring events that make them “revolutionary” tools of warfare; however, this study hypothesizes that cyber operations are not as revolutionary as the literature asserts. This study examines the revolutionary capabilities of offensive cyber operations by studying documented cases of state-sponsored offensive cyber operations from 2005-2019. By utilizing statistical methods, first the paper examines the documented cases and analyzes which states conduct most of these operations. Then, the paper will …
Exploitation And Domination: A Marxist Analysis Of The Impact Of Class Structure On State Terrorism, Joseph J. Hammons
Exploitation And Domination: A Marxist Analysis Of The Impact Of Class Structure On State Terrorism, Joseph J. Hammons
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This study qualitatively examines the impact of three socio-economic inequalities on state terrorism: (1) income inequality; (2) unequal collective labor rights; and (3) land inequality. It proposes a theory of class structure and state terrorism based on the Marxist theory of exploitation and domination and uses Marxist class analysis in the comparison of two case studies, Brazil (1985-1990) and the Philippines (1986-1992), to determine which of the three socio-economic inequalities is most likely to lead to class struggle that will prompt the state to respond with terrorism. Findings from this study indicate that issues concerning land inequality may be a …
How Will Covid 19 Impact The 2020 Election, A. Lee Hannah, Craig Woolley, Laura M. Luehrmann
How Will Covid 19 Impact The 2020 Election, A. Lee Hannah, Craig Woolley, Laura M. Luehrmann
Political Science Faculty Publications
This is the second installment in the Shelter in Place (SiP) Lecture series. This installment deals with the impact and implications of the Shelter in Place order on the 2020 presidential election. It covers topics ranging from changes in implications on campaigning, the incumbent advantage, fundamental changes, policy effects, and more.
Chinese Nationalism And The South China Sea, Jordan M. Sandy
Chinese Nationalism And The South China Sea, Jordan M. Sandy
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What role do domestic audiences play in authoritarian policy making? This study examines the relationship between newspapers and assertive foreign policy. Specifically, this study conducts content analyses of state-published newspapers during periods of unprecedented assertiveness in the South China Sea. Borrowing from Galtung’s theory of peace journalism, this study analyzes valence patterns used in 99 separate articles published in Xinhua, China Daily, People’s Daily, and Global Times. Additionally, this study examines the visibility of these articles, to better understand their prominence in national coverage. This study discusses nationalism in the case of China, as well as the overwhelming control that …
How Does Relative Deprivation Cause People To Condone Political Violence? A Case Study Of Bangladesh, Md Mamunur Rashid
How Does Relative Deprivation Cause People To Condone Political Violence? A Case Study Of Bangladesh, Md Mamunur Rashid
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How does relative deprivation cause people to condone political violence? This thesis investigates this question by utilizing survey data conducted in Bangladesh. Scarcity of public resources, lethal political confrontation and poor resource allocation make Bangladesh a fertile ground for violence. Although the survey suggests a relationship exists between relative deprivation and the public attitude toward condoning political violence, the regression analysis reveals that the relationship is imprecise. Small sample size, lack of technical capacity, and limited applicability of the foundational theory may have caused this imprecise outcome. The study concludes by providing recommendations for future research to undertake a mixed …
Game Of Survival: External Actors' Support For Separatists, Joshua C. Underwood
Game Of Survival: External Actors' Support For Separatists, Joshua C. Underwood
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This research develops a novel model for external actors’ support for separatists.Three variables measuring external actors’ support are identified through two case studies, Kosovo Liberation Army and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, with an emphasis on Military Aid’s impact. The variables are then applied to a quantitative analysis of external actors’ support in a dataset of 75 observations during the years 1991-2020, utilizing the Uppsala Conflict Data Program External Support Dataset. The findings for this research show that Military Aid and Moral Support improve the probability of survival for a separatist group. A deeper analysis reveals that military aid among …
Targeting The Minority: A New Theory Of Diversionary Violence, Nathaniel M. Arnold
Targeting The Minority: A New Theory Of Diversionary Violence, Nathaniel M. Arnold
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This research develops a novel theory for domestic diversionary violence, contending that the main drivers for this type of conflict are the specific characteristics of state-targeted domestic minority groups. Seven new variables measuring minority group characteristics are identified through a case study of the Kurdish minority in the Turkish Republic, then applied to a quantitative analysis of domestic diversionary violence in a dataset of 284 observations across 117 countries during the years 2004-2005, utilizing data from the University of Maryland’s Minorities at Risk Project, the University of Illinois Cline Center SPEED Database, and World Bank. A proportional odds logistic regression …
The Homeward Bound-Ness Of Crimean Tatars: A Clash Of National Identity, The State, And The Crimean Peninsula, Nicholas Daniel Higgins
The Homeward Bound-Ness Of Crimean Tatars: A Clash Of National Identity, The State, And The Crimean Peninsula, Nicholas Daniel Higgins
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State repressions of minority groups threaten human rights, undermining their development and survival. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, countless minority groups found themselves living in a new country as a result of annexation, redefined territorial boundaries and migration, with some suffering repression from the states in which they now resided. This thesis examines the interactions and conditions necessary for such repressions from the state to take place with the central research question: why and how might a state, having just acquired an ethnic or minority group, repress the said group following its acquisition. Through the combination of Benedict …
The Use Of Force: Hard Offensive Counterterrorism, Daniel Thomas
The Use Of Force: Hard Offensive Counterterrorism, Daniel Thomas
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In the following research, I investigate whether hard offensive counterterrorism results in the failure or success of a counterterrorism strategy. In the second chapter, the academic literature of counterterrorism strategies is examined. Next, a hypothesis is put forth that if a hard offensive counterterrorism strategy is utilized, indicators such as high troop levels, more civilian casualties, more negative public opinion, and an increased rate of terrorism, will point to a failed counterterrorism strategy. Then, I put forth a methodology to test the hypothesis while introducing troop level databases, various public opinion polling sources, and terrorist attack databases to investigate the …
Evaluating The Evaluators, Jakob Puckett
Evaluating The Evaluators, Jakob Puckett
The University Honors Program
Various news shows use different methods to report the same stories. In an attempt to understand this better, I watched and compared three news shows airing simultaneously on various networks, as well as viewing the front page of the New York Times, all from the same day – October 5, 2017. ABC World News Tonight, Fox News Special Report with Bret Baier, and PBS NewsHour were the shows under scrutiny, and while each show covered a large amount of the same material, they allotted varying amounts of time to certain subjects. Interestingly, while three of them largely focused on the …
Explaining Nuclear Rollback: Examining The Cessation Of Nuclear Weaponization In Argentina And Brazil From 1964 - 1994, Billy Michael Douglas
Explaining Nuclear Rollback: Examining The Cessation Of Nuclear Weaponization In Argentina And Brazil From 1964 - 1994, Billy Michael Douglas
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Seventy years after the first use of nuclear weapons in World War II, the proliferation of these apocalyptic munitions remains a key policy issue on the international stage. The available literature on nuclear proliferation suggests a strong correlation between the threat of rival a state seeking nuclear weapons and a state's own decision to pursue its own nuclear weapons. Regional rivals Argentina and Brazil both initiated nuclear weapons programs and were also developing nuclear delivery systems; however, these countries were able to step out of this dyadic proliferation spiral and renounced their nuclear weapons programs. Often assumed a success of …
Abandoned By Home And Burden Of Host: Evaluating States' Economic Ability And Refugee Acceptance Through Panel Data Analysis, Ummey Hanney Tabassum
Abandoned By Home And Burden Of Host: Evaluating States' Economic Ability And Refugee Acceptance Through Panel Data Analysis, Ummey Hanney Tabassum
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This research examines the relationship between the number of refugees hosted by states and the economic ability of host states by using UNHCR’s refugee data and World Bank’s GNI per capita data. To identify the relationship between these two variables, this study uses two sets of panel data covering 145-178 countries, around 43-55 years and 3000-5000 observations. For the two sets of panel data, four models are produced to test the null and alternative hypotheses. In all four cases, results show that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the number of refugees hosted by states and GNI per …
Japan's Article 9 And Japanese Public Opinion: Implications For Japanese Defense Policy And Security In The Asia Pacific, Julie Jo Tollefson
Japan's Article 9 And Japanese Public Opinion: Implications For Japanese Defense Policy And Security In The Asia Pacific, Julie Jo Tollefson
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The Asia Pacific power structure is facing numerous challenges. Scholarship demonstrates Japan has encountered arduous obstacles as it balances Chinese and North Korean activity. As Japan attempts to expand its military capabilities, polling data shows that defense policy has conflicted with Japan's citizens and neighboring countries. The focal point of these contentions is Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which restrains the Japanese military to self-defense purposes. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed to revise Article 9 by 2020. However, revising Article 9 is no simple task. Research demonstrates that for decades Japanese public opinion has been opposed to the …
Red Skies: The Impact Of Environmental Protests In The People's Republic Of China, 2004-2016, Porter Lyons
Red Skies: The Impact Of Environmental Protests In The People's Republic Of China, 2004-2016, Porter Lyons
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How do increases in environmental protests in China impact increases in the implementation of environmental policies? Environmental protests in China are gaining traction. By examining these protests, this study analyzes forty-one protests and their impact on government enforcement of environmental regulations. Stratifying this study according to five areas (Beijing, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan), patterns began to emerge according to each area. Employing a framework William Gamson introduced (2009), this study analyzes the outcomes of environmental contention, including the use of co-optation and preemptive measures. It finds that the success or failure of a protest has much to do with …
Europe's Parallel Media Universe: Cross-National Analysis Of Populist Media Oppression In The Eu, Csongor Bajnoczki
Europe's Parallel Media Universe: Cross-National Analysis Of Populist Media Oppression In The Eu, Csongor Bajnoczki
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This research is to show that populist parties in the European Union attempt to oppress the traditional established media as soon as they come in to power. The multiple regressions test the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the political power of populist parties and degree of media freedom. For the assessment and clarification of the relationship between the level of media freedom and the political power of populist parties, political rights and civil liberties country scores from Freedom House's Freedom in the World reports, GDP per capita from World Bank, corruption perception indexes from Transparency International, and Grigorii V. …
Nationalism And Regional Relations In Democratic Transitions: Comparing Nepal And Bhutan, Deki Peldon
Nationalism And Regional Relations In Democratic Transitions: Comparing Nepal And Bhutan, Deki Peldon
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Democracy is facing crisis as its values including political rights and civil liberties are declining around the world. If democracy is to prevail, the reasons for the decline need to be addressed. To this end, the research question is: how nationalism and regional influences affect the political transitions of Bhutan and Nepal. The research question is answered by analyzing leadership stability, ethnicity and the caste system, as well as the roles of regional giants India and China in Bhutan's and Nepal's political transitions. The findings show that the contested conceptions of nationalism in Nepal and strong internal nationalism in Bhutan …
Chinese Satellite Diplomacy: China's Strategic Weapon For Soft And Hard Power Gains, Nicholas Jackman
Chinese Satellite Diplomacy: China's Strategic Weapon For Soft And Hard Power Gains, Nicholas Jackman
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China signed its first turn-key communication satellite contract with Nigeria in 2004. The contract stipulated that China would design, build, integrate, launch, and complete in-orbit checkout for the Nigcomsat-1 communication satellite and then transfer control over to Nigeria. By 2018, China had contracted and launched another six communication satellites for various foreign customers. The customers, who are foreign governments, are geographically dispersed throughout South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. The satellite sales have occurred during China's unprecedented economic growth, a time in which China has been granted additional foreign policy options as its power increases relative to others. This thesis …