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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Cyber Attack: A Dull Tool To Sharpen Foreign Policy, Emilio Iasiello
Cyber Attack: A Dull Tool To Sharpen Foreign Policy, Emilio Iasiello
Emilio Iasiello
This paper examines how cyber attacks, if indeed conducted by nation states, have been unsuccessful in supporting states' foreign policy objectives. By analyzing three prominent case studies, I show that as a result of geopolitical tensions, cyber attacks were implemented to further nation state objectives in support of foreign policy considerations and failed to achieve their respective outcomes despite successful deployment against their intended targets. The three case studies, hypothetical scenarios because attribution has not been confirmed, include: (1) the October 2012 distributed denial of service attacks targeting the U.S. banking sector; (2) the 2012 Stuxnet attack against Iran; and …
Political Attitudes Under Repression: Evidence From North Korean Refugees, Marcus Noland
Political Attitudes Under Repression: Evidence From North Korean Refugees, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
What do citizens of highly repressive regimes think about their governments? How do they respond to high levels of repression? This paper addresses these questions by examining the political attitudes of North Korean refugees. Unsurprisingly the evaluations of regime performance are negative, and there is some evidence that they are becoming more so, even among the core political class and government or party workers. While the sample marginally overrepresents groups with the most negative evaluation of the regime, multivariate analysis is used to generate projections of the views of the wider population; this exercise indicates that that the null hypothesis …
Economic Crime And Punishment In North Korea, Marcus Noland
Economic Crime And Punishment In North Korea, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
The penal system has played a central role in the North Korean government’s response to the country’s profound economic and social changes. As the informal market economy has expanded, so have the scope of economic crimes. Two refugee surveys—one conducted in China, one in South Korea—document that the regime disproportionately targets politically suspect groups, particularly those involved in market-oriented economic activities. Levels of violence and deprivation do not appear to differ substantially between the infamous political prison camps, penitentiaries for felons, and labor camps used to incarcerate individuals for a growing number of economic crimes. Such a system may also …
The Winter Of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks The Market, Marcus Noland
The Winter Of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks The Market, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
This paper examines North Korea’s recent confiscatory currency conversion and the subsequent prohibition on the use of foreign currency. The regime has made no attempt to veil its motivations: strengthening the socialist economy by directly attacking the market and the independence from state control that it represents. These policies, coming at an inopportune time when the country is facing economic stagnation, spiraling prices, and a resurgence of food shortages will surely reduce economic welfare. The open question is whether they have sown such discord that these moves will ultimately destabilize the country politically as well.
Repression And Punishment In North Korea: Survey Evidence Of Prison Camp Experiences, Marcus Noland
Repression And Punishment In North Korea: Survey Evidence Of Prison Camp Experiences, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
The penal system has played a central role in the North Korean government's response to the country's profound economic and social changes. Two refugee surveys--one conducted in China, one in South Korea--document its changing role. The regime disproportionately targets politically suspect groups, particularly those involved in market-oriented economic activities. Levels of violence and deprivation do not appear to differ substantially between the infamous political prison camps, penitentiaries for felons, and labor camps used to incarcerate individuals for misdemeanors, including economic crimes. Substantial numbers of those incarcerated report experiencing deprivation with respect to food as well as public executions and other …
Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments Of North Korea's Transition, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang
Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments Of North Korea's Transition, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang
Marcus Noland
Results from a survey of more than 1300 North Korean refugees in China provide insight into changing economic conditions in North Korea. There is modest evidence of slightly more positive assessments among those who exited the country following the initiation of reforms in 2002. Education breeds skepticism; higher levels of education were associated with more negative perceptions of economic conditions and reform efforts. Other demographic markers such as gender or provincial origin are not robustly correlated with attitudes. Instead, personal experiences appear to be central: a significant number of the respondents were unaware of the humanitarian aid program and the …
North Korea In 2008: Twilight Of The God?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
North Korea In 2008: Twilight Of The God?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
Marcus Noland
Following a decade-long experiment with engagement, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, inaugurated in February 2008, brought a more skeptical posture toward the North. The spring saw a recurrence of widespread food shortages in North Korea. Pyongyang initially moved to implement the roadmap for denuclearization, but wrangling over the timing of the country’s removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and verification stalled negotiations until a partial breakthrough in October. These events were overshadowed in September by the first reports that Kim Jong-il had suffered a stroke. These reports cast uncertainty over all aspects of politics and policy and …
Famine In North Korea Redux?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
Famine In North Korea Redux?, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
Marcus Noland
In the 1990s, 600,000 to 1 million North Koreans, or about 3–5 percent of the pre-crisis population perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into the future. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with direct observation …
Migration Experiences Of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence From China, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang
Migration Experiences Of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence From China, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Yoonok Chang
Marcus Noland
Chronic food shortages, political repression, and poverty have driven tens of thousands of North Koreans into China. This paper reports results from a large-scale survey of this population. The survey provides insight not only into the material circumstances of the refugees but also into their psychological state and aspirations. One key finding is that many North Korean refugees suffer severe psychological stress akin to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This distress is caused in part by experiences in China. However, we demonstrate that it is also a result of the long shadow cast by the North Korean famine and abuses suffered …
The (Non-) Impact Of Un Sanctions On North Korea, Marcus Noland
The (Non-) Impact Of Un Sanctions On North Korea, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
This study finds that North Korea’s nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea’s trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea’s trade with its two principal partners. In retrospect, North Korea may have calculated quite correctly …
Markets And Famine In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks
Markets And Famine In North Korea, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks
Marcus Noland
In the 1990s, as many as a million North Koreans died in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. Unlike the dramatic recent natural disasters in Burma and China, North Korea’s current food crisis, a product of self-destructive policies, bad weather, and global food price increases, has metastasized largely beyond public view, abetted by Pyongyang’s penchant for secrecy. Permanent resolution of North Korea’s chronic food problems requires revitalization of its industrial economy. Genuine opening would enable the country to earn foreign exchange and import bulk grain on a commercially sustainable basis, just as South Korea, China, and Japan …
North Korea On The Precipice Of Famine, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks
North Korea On The Precipice Of Famine, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard, Erik Weeks
Marcus Noland
North Korea is once again headed toward widespread food shortages, hunger, and famine. As of this writing, the prospect of hunger-related deaths occurring in the next several months is approaching certainty. The expectation is based on four pieces of evidence, which we outline in the policy brief: - Food balances are as precarious as at any time since the great famine. - Access to aid or commercial import is limited by diplomatic tensions and the word food crisis. - Domestic food prices show the kind of extreme price inflation that is typical of pre-famine or famine settings. - The domestic …
A Security And Peace Mechanism For Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
A Security And Peace Mechanism For Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
Marcus Noland
In this brief, we explore the economic dimension of multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia. We begin with a discussion of the purported security benefits of economic egnagement with North Korea. We then outline recent economic developments in North Korea, which provide a crucial background to any discussion of the issue. We raise some cautionary questions about the scope for multilateral economic cooperation in Northeast Asia before outlining how economic cooperation can complement long-run security and economic objectives on the peninsula, including economic reform in North Korea.
North Korea In 2007, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
North Korea In 2007, Marcus Noland, Stephan Haggard
Marcus Noland
The year 2007 witnessed a gradual rapprochement between North Korea and the world, reflecting changes both in the country's external environment and domestic political economy. Key markers were the resumption of the Six-Party Talks and the second North-South summit. Whether these developments will endure depends largely on North Korean intentions.
The Economic Implications Of A North Korean Nuclear Test, Marcus Noland
The Economic Implications Of A North Korean Nuclear Test, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
This essay analyzes the economic implications that a North Korean nuclear test would have on Northeast Asia. Main Argument: A North Korean nuclear test would likely have a negative, though noncatastrophic, economic impact on the region: -South Korea would likely suffer from capital flight, consequent declines in asset prices and investment, and possibly a minor budgetary loss associated with existing investment guarantees to companies operating in North Korea. - Japan’s economy would also suffer from capital flight, asset price declines, and a reduction in investment. The most radical consequence, however, would be political: a nuclear test might strengthen Japanese attitudes …
The Two Koreas: Prospects For Economic Cooperation And Integration, Marcus Noland
The Two Koreas: Prospects For Economic Cooperation And Integration, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
After nearly a half century of strident adherence to the principles of socialism and self-reliance, North Korea may be on the verge of opening itself to outside aid and advice. Motivators include a decade of economic trouble punctuated by declining output and famine as well as underdeveloped infrastructures and reduction in foreign trade and material support. The limits of national selfsufficiency may finally have become admissible in North Korea, as evidenced by recent diplomatic negotiations and cooperative commercial projects with capitalist nations. South Korea, meanwhile, is struggling to regain ground lost in the financial crisis and to correct faults in …
Opening Attempt: North Korea And The Rajin-Sonbong Free Trade And Economic Zone, Marcus Noland
Opening Attempt: North Korea And The Rajin-Sonbong Free Trade And Economic Zone, Marcus Noland
Marcus Noland
In response to its economic crisis, North Korea has intensified efforts to attract investment to its Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone. While this effort to promote the zone represents an important start, the zone clearly has a long way to go before it will be able to attract the type of investment envisioned by its supporters. Lack of infrastructure appears to be a severe impediment to the development of the zone. If the infrastructural hurdle is to be surmounted, it will likely to be due to Chinese interest in developing the zone for transshipment trade associated with the economic …