Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model, Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, Jacek J. Kugler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition …