Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Re-Emerging Dragon, Dylan Kissane

Dylan Kissane

Remarks prepared for the CEFAM China Conference, 22 January 2013.

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China: Re-Emerging, Not Rising, Dylan Kissane

Dylan Kissane

In late 1993 Nicholas Kristof argued in the pages of Foreign Affairs that “the rise of china, if it continues, may be the most important trend in the world for the next century”. Fifteen years later two things are clear: there is no longer any reason to wonder if China’s rise will continue and the impact of this surge in the East is now clearly the most important trend in international politics this century.

Forecasting The Storm: Power Cycle Theory And Conflict In The Major Power System, Dylan Kissane

Dylan Kissane

Unpredicted and unpredictable storms have cut a disastrous swathe through coastal communities in recent years. If the international relations system can be imagined as a peaceful coast, then conflict is the storm that wrecks havoc upon those in its path. One goal, then, of those within the discipline who study conflict is to forecast these international storms and, in power cycle theory, there exists a method which is of some utility to this end. This paper re-introduces power cycle theory, explaining its components and methodology before introducing the specific changes to the method that are the result of the author’s …

2015 And The Rise Of China: Power Cycle Analysis And The Implications For Australia, Dylan Kissane

Dylan Kissane

Research undertaken at the University of South Australia has produced a reformulated power cycle theory which balances both military and economic capabilities of actors, producing a graphical representation of the relative distribution of power. For the period between 2000 and 2030, this model suggests that China will continue to rise in power at the expense of the United States, achieving power parity in 2014 and overtaking the sole remaining superpower in 2015. This article introduces the power cycle method, extrapolates forecasts from collected sampling and suggests implications for Australia of an international environment where its principal ally is no longer …