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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™

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Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Selected Works

2003

Applied Econometrics

Articles 1 - 2 of 2

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Oil And Product Price Dynamics In International Petroleum Markets, Alessandro Lanza, Matteo Manera, Massimo Giovannini Jan 2003

Oil And Product Price Dynamics In International Petroleum Markets, Alessandro Lanza, Matteo Manera, Massimo Giovannini

Matteo Manera

In this paper we investigate crude oil and products price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten price series of crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products, considering four distinct market areas (Mediterranean, North Western Europe, Latin America and North America) over the period 1994-2002. We provide first a complete analysis of crude oil and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models. Subsequently we use the error correction specification to predict crude oil prices over the horizon January 2002-June 2002.The main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: a) differences in quality are crucial …

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Modelling The Load Curve Of Aggregate Electricity Consumption Using Principal Components, Matteo Manera, Angelo Marzullo Jan 2003

Modelling The Load Curve Of Aggregate Electricity Consumption Using Principal Components, Matteo Manera, Angelo Marzullo

Matteo Manera

Since oil is a non-renewable resource with a high environmental impact, and its most common use is to produce combustibles for electricity, reliable methods for modelling electricity consumption can contribute to a more rational employment of this hydrocarbon fuel. In this paper we apply the Principal Components (PC) method to modelling the load curves of Italy, France and Greece on hourly data of aggregate electricity consumption. The empirical results obtained with the PC approach are compared with those produced by the Fourier and constrained smoothing spline estimators. The PC method represents a much simpler and attractive alternative to modelling electricity …

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