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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Hazardous Weather And Human Response In The Southeastern United States, Daniel Burow
Hazardous Weather And Human Response In The Southeastern United States, Daniel Burow
Doctoral Dissertations
Effectively mitigating the human costs of future hazardous weather events requires examining meteorological threats, their long-term patterns, and human response to these events. The southeastern United States is a region that has both a high climatological risk and a high societal vulnerability to many different meteorological hazards. In this dissertation, I study hazardous weather and human response in the Southeast through three different lenses: identifying uniquely simultaneous hazards posed by tropical cyclones, assessing precipitation and synoptic weather patterns on hazardous weather days, and examining patterns in intended response to tornado watches. I find that simultaneous and collocated tornado and flash …
Human Fatigue Predictions In Complex Aviation Crew Operational Impact Conditions, Suresh Rangan
Human Fatigue Predictions In Complex Aviation Crew Operational Impact Conditions, Suresh Rangan
Doctoral Dissertations
In this last decade, several regulatory frameworks across the world in all modes of transportation had brought fatigue and its risk management in operations to the forefront. Of all transportation modes air travel has been the safest means of transportation. Still as part of continuous improvement efforts, regulators are insisting the operators to adopt strong fatigue science and its foundational principles to reinforce safety risk assessment and management. Fatigue risk management is a data driven system that finds a realistic balance between safety and productivity in an organization. This work discusses the effects of mathematical modeling of fatigue and its …
Spatio-Temporal Modeling Of Crime In Chicago, Illinois, Shelby Scott
Spatio-Temporal Modeling Of Crime In Chicago, Illinois, Shelby Scott
Doctoral Dissertations
Gun crime is a major public health concern in the United States. In Chicago, Illinois, gun crime incurs a significant cost of life along with monetary costs and community unrest. Due to past legislation, there is limited research applying quantitative methods to gun crime in Chicago. The overall purpose of this work is to create a cellular automata model to observe and project the epidemic spread of gun crime in Chicago. To create that model, t-test analyses of temporal patterns, a Bayesian point process model, a negative binomial Bayesian subset selection, and a k-selection algorithm are used. The cellular automata …
Modeling Time Series With Conditional Heteroscedastic Structure, Ratnayake Mudiyanselage Isuru Panduka Ratnayake
Modeling Time Series With Conditional Heteroscedastic Structure, Ratnayake Mudiyanselage Isuru Panduka Ratnayake
Doctoral Dissertations
"Models with a conditional heteroscedastic variance structure play a vital role in many applications, including modeling financial volatility. In this dissertation several existing formulations, motivated by the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model, are further generalized to provide more effective modeling of price range data well as count data. First, the Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) model is generalized by introducing a composite range-based multiplicative component formulation named the Composite CARR model. This formulation enables a more effective modeling of the long and short-term volatility components present in price range data. It treats the long-term volatility as a stochastic component that in …