Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

An Overview Of Elements And Relations: Aspects Of A Scientific Metaphysics, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A talk on my book, Elements and Relations: Aspects of a Scientific Metaphysics. Book description:

This book develops the core proposition that systems theory is an attempt to construct an “exact and scientific metaphysics,” a system of general ideas central to science that can be expressed mathematically. Collectively, these ideas would constitute a non-reductionist “theory of everything” unlike what is being sought in physics. Inherently transdisciplinary, systems theory offers ideas and methods that are relevant to all of the sciences and also to professional fields such as systems engineering, public policy, business, and social work. To demonstrate the generality …

Reconstructability Analysis: Discrete Multivariate Modeling, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

An introduction to Reconstructability Analysis for the Discrete Multivariate Modeling course and for other purposes.

Planning For Future Fire: Scenario Analysis Of An Accelerated Fuel Reduction Plan For The Western United States, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Fermin J. Alcasena, Rachel Houtman

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Recent fire seasons brought a new fire reality to the western US, and motivated federal agencies to explore scenarios for augmenting current fuel management and forest restoration in areas where fires might threaten critical resources and developed areas. To support this effort, we modeled the scheduling of an accelerated forest and fuel management scenario on 76 western US national forests. Specifically, we modeled a 10-year ramp up of current forest and fuel management that targeted the source of wildfire exposure to developed areas and simulated treatment in areas that accounted for 77% of the predicted exposure. We used a sample …

Representation Justice As A Research Agenda For Socio-Hydrology And Water Governance, Melissa Haeffner, Dana E. Hellman, Alida Cantor, Idowu Ajibade, Vinka Oyanedel-Craver, Maura Kelly, Laura Schifman, Lisa Weasel

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We propose representation justice as a theoretical lens for socio-hydrology and water governance studies. An exploratory survey of 496 water sector employees in the United States revealed that self-identifying females felt more strongly discriminated against due to their gender and other social factors, compared to self-identifying males. Responses unveiled how macro- and microaggressions impede career pathways to leadership positions and, therefore, representation. We identify ways in which socio-hydrology can benefit from a representation justice lens by considering the following: (1) how power and politics shape the composition of the water sector and decision-making processes; (2) how available quantitative data do …

Graphical Models In Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Networks, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) are both probabilistic graphical modeling methodologies used in machine learning and artificial intelligence. There are RA models that are statistically equivalent to BN models and there are also models unique to RA and models unique to BN. The primary goal of this paper is to unify these two methodologies via a lattice of structures that offers an expanded set of models to represent complex systems more accurately or more simply. The conceptualization of this lattice also offers a framework for additional innovations beyond what is presented here. Specifically, this paper integrates RA and …

Sensitivity Analysis Of An Agent-Based Simulation Model Using Reconstructability Analysis, Andey M. Nunes, Martin Zwick, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability analysis, a methodology based on information theory and graph theory, was used to perform a sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model. The NetLogo BehaviorSpace tool was employed to do a full 2^k factorial parameter sweep on Uri Wilensky’s Wealth Distribution NetLogo model, to which a Gini-coefficient convergence condition was added. The analysis identified the most influential predictors (parameters and their interactions) of the Gini coefficient wealth inequality outcome. Implications of this type of analysis for building and testing agent-based simulation models are discussed.

Hypergraph Analysis Of Structure Models, Cliff A. Joslyn, Teresa D. Schmidt, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Theoretical discussion on the analysis of hypergraph networks; application of analysis methods to hypergraph networks derived by applying Reconstructability Analysis to health care data (the PhD dissertation work of Teresa Schmidt).

Pre-Emptive Detection Of Mature Pine Drought Stress Using Multispectral Aerial Imagery, Nancy Grulke, Jason Maxfield, Phillip Riggan, Charlie Schrader-Patton

Biology Faculty Publications and Presentations

Drought, ozone (O₃), and nitrogen deposition (N) alter foliar pigments and tree crown structure that may be remotely detectable. Remote sensing tools are needed that pre-emptively identify trees susceptible to environmental stresses could inform forest managers in advance of tree mortality risk. Jeffrey pine, a component of the economically important and widespread western yellow pine in North America was investigated in the southern Sierra Nevada. Transpiration of mature trees differed by 20% between microsites with adequate (mesic (M)) vs. limited (xeric (X)) water availability as described in a previous study. In this study, in-the-crown morphological traits (needle chlorosis, …

Disturbance Refugia Within Mosaics Of Forest Fire, Drought, And Insect Outbreaks, Meg A. Krawchuk, Garrett W. Meigs, Jennifer M. Cartwright, Jonathan D. Coop, Raymond Davis, Andres Holz, Crystal Kolden, Arjan Jh Meddens

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Disturbance refugia – locations that experience less severe or frequent disturbances than the surrounding landscape – provide a framework to highlight not only where and why these biological legacies persist as adjacent areas change but also the value of those legacies in sustaining biodiversity. Recent studies of disturbance refugia in forest ecosystems have focused primarily on fire, with a growing recognition of important applications to land management. Given the wide range of disturbance processes in forests, developing a broader understanding of disturbance refugia is important for scientists and land managers, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate …

Diverse Autonomic Nervous System Stress Response Patterns In Childhood Sensory Modulation, Jacquelyn Christensen, Heather Wild, Erin S. Kenzie, Wayne Wakeland, Deborah Budding, Connie Lillas

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The specific role of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) in emotional and behavioral regulation—particularly in relation to automatic processes—has gained increased attention in the sensory modulation literature. This mini-review article summarizes current knowledge about the role of the ANS in sensory modulation, with a focus on the integrated functions of the ANS and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and their measurement. Research from the past decade illustrates that sympathetic and parasympathetic interactions are more complex than previously assumed. Patterns of ANS activation vary across individuals, with distinct physiological response profiles influencing the reactivity underlying automatic behavioral responses. This review article advances …

Forests And Mental Health In South Africa: Panel Data Evidence, Dambala Gelo

Forest Collaborative Research

Slides from a presentation that examines the linkages between the green environment (urban forests, green open urban space) and mental health in South Africa. The author used representative panel data from the National Income Dynamics Survey, including the Center for Epidemiological Studies Short Depression Scale, to uncover these links.

Economics Of Afforestation: A Global Leadership Opportunity For Efd, Jeffrey R. Vincent

Forest Collaborative Research

Slides from a presentation that examines the economics of afforestation and forest restoration in light of climatic changes, rising CO₂ levels, carbon sequestration and other factors. Provides directions for further research, including retrospective analysis of previous afforestation projects, and targeted analysis of impediments to institutional investment in afforestation.

Concept Note: Mexico, Danae Hernandez, Alejandro López-Feldman, Fernanda Márquez-Padilla

Forest Collaborative Research

Slides from a presentation that explores the connections between forest cover and deforestation on human health. The authors analyze medical records from the Mexican National Social Security Institute (IMSS) to determine the extent to which health outcomes are related to proximity to forests or deforested areas.

Forest And Health: China Case, Shilei Liu, Jintao Xu

Forest Collaborative Research

Slides from a presentation that examines the relationship between ecosystem change and human health in China. The authors reviewed data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and other sources to search for links between afforestation, forest protection and human health.

Social Vulnerability To Large Wildfires In The Western Usa, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures …

Do Corporate Owned Adaptive Learning Platforms Perpetuate Banking Style Learning? Integrating Technology For Activism Into Transformational Sustainability Education, Tina M. Garner

Leadership for Sustainability Education Comprehensive Papers

We live in a world that tends to be controlled by corporations. The public school system should be wary of the problems that corporate control has on education. Even though public schools should not have corporate influence, the fact remains that they do, and this perpetuates Freire's banking style learning. Through time, the corporate influence in education was through educational materials such as book sales. Since the decline of the use of books and the growth of the use of technologies, corporations have followed suit through the sales of Adaptive Learning Platforms. Through leveraging the technology which students enjoy using, …

The Impact Of Framing On Acceptance Of Cultured Meat, Christopher Bryant, Courtney Dillard

University Studies Faculty Publications and Presentations

Cultured meat can be produced from growing animal cells in-vitro rather than as part of a living animal. This technology has the potential to address several of the major ethical, environmental, and public health concerns associated with conventional meat production. However, research has highlighted some consumer uncertainty regarding the concept. Although several studies have examined the media coverage of this new food technology, research linking different frames to differences in consumer attitudes is lacking. In an experimental study, we expose U.S. adults (n = 480) to one of three different frames on cultured meat: “societal benefits,” “high tech,” and “same …

Equity In The Grain System: Corn, Masa And Tortillas In The Pacific Northwest, Pedro Ferbel-Azcarate

Black Studies Faculty Publications and Presentations

Slides from a presentation given at the Cascadia Grains Conference, South Puget Sound Community College, Olympia, Wash. in January 2019.

Estimating The Present Value Of Carbon Sequestration In U.S. Forests, 2015–2050, For Evaluating Federal Climate Change Mitigation Policies, Robert T. Haight, Randall Bluffstone, Jeffrey D. Kline, John D. Coulston, David N. Wear, Kate Zook

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We demonstrate an application evaluating carbon sequestration benefits from federal policy alternatives. Using detailed forest inventory data, we projected carbon sequestration outcomes in the coterminous 48 states for a baseline scenario and three policy scenarios through 2050. Alternatives included (1) reducing deforestation from development, (2) afforestation in the eastern United States and reforestation in the western United States, and (3) reducing stand-replacing wildfires. We used social cost of carbon estimates to evaluate the present value of carbon sequestration benefits gained with each policy. Results suggest that afforestation and reforestation would provide the greatest marginal increase in carbon benefit, far exceeding …

Patterns And Drivers Of Recent Disturbances Across The Temperate Forest Biome, Andreas Sommerfeld, Cornelius Senf, Brian Buma, Anthony W. D'Amato, Tiphaine Despres, Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal, Shawn Fraver, Lee E. Frelich, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Sarah J. Hart, Brian J. Harvey, Hong S. He, Tomáš Hlásny, Andrés Holz, Multiple Additional Authors

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and …

Landscape Drivers Of Recent Fire Activity (2001- 2017) In South-Central Chile, David B. Mcwethy, Aníbal Pauchard, Rafeal García, Andrés Holz, Mauro E. Gonzales, Thomas T. Veblen, Julian Stahl, Bryce Currey

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent decades large fires have affected communities throughout central and southern Chile with great social and ecological consequences. Despite this high fire activity, the controls and drivers and the spatiotemporal pattern of fires are not well understood. To identify the large-scale trends and drivers of recent fire activity across six regions in south-central Chile (~32–40° S Latitude) we evaluated MODIS satellite-derived fire detections and compared this data with Chilean Forest Service records for the period 2001–2017. MODIS burned area estimates provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive record of fire activity across an important bioclimatic transition zone between dry Mediterranean …

More Than The Sum Of Its Parts: How Disturbance Interactions Shape Forest Dynamics Under Climate Change, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Brian R. Sturtevant, Eric J. Gustafson, Alec M. Kretchun, Jane R. Foster

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Interactions among disturbances are seldom quantified, and how they will be affected by climate change is even more uncertain. In this study, we sought to better understand how interactions among disturbances shift under climate change by applying a process-based landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II) to project disturbance regimes under climate change in north-central Minnesota, USA. Specifically, we (1) contrasted mortality rates and the extent of disturbance for four individual (single) disturbance regimes (fire, insects, wind, or forest management) vs. all four disturbance regimes operating simultaneously (concurrent) under multiple climate change scenarios and (2) determined how climate change interacts with …

Assessing The Potential Of Land Use Modification To Mitigate Ambient No2 And Its Consequences For Respiratory Health, Meenakshi Rao, Linda A. George, Vivek Shandas, Todd N. Rosenstiel

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO₂ random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, …

Assessing The Impacts Of Federal Forest Planning On Wildfire Risk Mitigation In The Pacific Northwest, Usa, Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Karen C. Short, Cody R. Evers

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent …

Mechanisms Of Methane Transport Through Populus Trichocarpa, Ellynne Marie Kutschera, M. A. K. Khalil, Andrew Rice, Todd Rosenstiel

Physics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Although the dynamics of methane (CH4) emission from croplands and wetlands have been fairly well investigated, the contribution of trees to global CH4 emission and the mechanisms of tree transport are relatively unknown. CH4 emissions from the common wetland tree species Populus trichocarpa (black cottonwood) native to the Pacific Northwest were measured under hydroponic conditions in order to separate plant transport mechanisms from the influence of soil processes. Roots were exposed to CH4 enriched water and canopy emissions of CH4 were measured. The average flux for 34 trials (at temperatures ranging from 17 to 25 °C) was 2.8 ± 2.2 …

Creating Protected Areas On Public Lands: Is There Room For Additional Conservation?, Rodrigo A. Arriagada, Cristian M. Echeverria, Danisa E. Moya

Forest Collaborative Research

Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily …

The Conflict Resolution Case Study In Urban Life: Bull Run Watershed Case, Chang-Yu Hong

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The City of Portland and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service are working together, along with citizens, to formulate a comprehensive new policy to guide joint management of the Bull Run watershed at Mt. Hood National Forest. This process has brought about four decades of conflict, resulting from differences between the federal view of multiple use and the local view of exclusive use for producing high quality water. The new policy is being formulated by the City of Portland and the Forest Service through negotiation of a comprehensive Memorandum of Understanding that structures the parties’ roles, responsibilities, …

Climate And Bark Beetle Effects On Forest Productivity — Linking Dendroecology With Forest Landscape Modeling, Alec M. Kretchun, E. Louise Loudermilk, Robert M. Scheller, Matthew Hurteau, Soumaya Belmecher

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at multiple spatial scales and is essential for understanding regional forest response to changing climate. The mixed conifer forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, provide an opportunity to analyze biotic and abiotic influences on ANPP. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of moisture stress (climatic water deficit, CWD) and …

Forest Park Ecosystems Services Inventory: An Exploratory Study, Pablo Barreyro, Jenny Dempsey Stein

Institute for Sustainable Solutions Publications and Presentations

This report presents both qualitative and quantitative survey data concerning resident perceptions of ecosystem services in Portland’s Forest Park. Focus group best practices and ecosystem services in urban parks literature are reviewed. Representative focus groups were conducted to ascertain local awareness and understanding of the urban wilderness area’s ecosystem services, identify concurrent challenges and measure interest in a potential interpretive center. Individual surveys were also administered in order to connect issues with demographics and recreational use information. Regression analyses were conducted to examine related park usage, access and economic trends.

While the study is preliminary, the results reveal opportunities for …

Levels Of Altruism, Martin Zwick, Jeffrey Alan Fletcher

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The phenomenon of altruism extends from the biological realm to the human socio-cultural realm. This paper sketches a coherent outline of multiple types of altruism of progressively increasing scope that span these two realms and are grounded in an ever-expanding sense of"self." Discussion of this framework notes difficulties associated with altruisms at different levels. It links scientific ideas about the evolution of cooperation and about hierarchical order to perennial philosophical and religious concerns. It offers a conceptual background for inquiry into societal challenges that call for altruistic behavior, especially the challenge of environmental and social sustainability.