Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Currency Mismatch And Balance Sheet Effects Of Exchange Rate In Turkish Non-Financial Corporations, Serkan Demirkilic

Doctoral Dissertations

Until the East Asian Crisis of 1990s, literature exclusively focused on the assumed expansionary competitiveness channel of deprecation in the domestic currency. The East Asian and Latin American Crisis of 1990s proved that depreciation in the domestic currency caused fragilities through the deterioration in firms’ balance sheet net- worth. Many have argued that excessive reliance on short-term debt and un-hedged foreign currency borrowings of firms were responsible of fragilities, and resulting poor performances of firms in these countries. The latter body of the literature introduced the contractionary balance sheet effects of foreign currency indebtedness through depreciation, and argued that if …

Essays On The Impact Of Exchange Rate Movements On Stock Return And Country Output, Junnan Zhao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Exchange rate movements are widely believed to be a major source of uncertainty at both micro- and macro-economic levels. At the microeconomic level, corporate managers controlling risk and investors seeking to hedge their portfolios are both obviously interested in estimates of a firm’s exchange rate exposure ̶ i.e., how much of the value of a firm will be affected by exchange rate movements. At the macroeconomic level, a currency appreciation may have a contractionary effect on a country's output.

Chapter 1 tests whether the launch of the euro around 1999 significantly reduced stock market volatility and exchange rate risk exposure …

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an …

Essays In International Economics: Decomposing Episodes Of Large Growth In International Trade, Brandon K. Malloy

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My thesis consists of three chapters relating to topics in International Economics. In the first essay, I use bilateral trade data from Canada, Germany, Japan, Mexico, the U.S. and the U.K. to decompose the patterns of trade growth across various goods classifications during episodes of rapid growth in bilateral trade. I find that bilateral trade growth during these episodes is granular- less than 5\% of goods classifications account for over 65\% of overall bilateral trade growth. I quantitatively assess whether ``Melitz-style" trade models, with heterogeneous productivity firms, CES demand and fixed and variable costs of exporting, can match the observed …

Three Essays On International Economics And Finance, Juan Antonio Montecino

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation studies the macroeconomic and social impacts of two increasingly common macroeconomic policies: restrictions on international capital mobility -- capital controls -- and so-called unconventional monetary policy -- often referred to as “quantitative easing.” The consensus view is that capital controls can effectively lengthen the maturity composition of capital inflows and increase the independence of monetary policy but are not generally effective at reducing net inflows and influencing the real exchange rate. The first essay presents empirical evidence that although capital controls may not directly affect the long-run equilibrium level of the real exchange rate, they may enable disequilibria …

The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On The Stock Market Returns In Developed Economies, Ian Zangrillo

Honors Theses

This paper examines the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in OECD countries specifically Canada France Germany Japan United Kingdom United States and Norway. The empirical method used is the vector autoregression (VAR) model where a generalized impulse response function is applied to the results of the VAR to determine how stock prices respond to a shock in oil prices. The VAR model uses quarterly data for the period 1994 to 2016 for the following variables: interest rates real GDP real stock returns real UK Brent crude oil and APSP crude oil index. To take into account structural …

Optimum Currency Areas And The European Experience: An Examination Of Diverging Competitiveness Among Key Eu Nations, Karol Jablonski

Honors Theses

Now in its 18th year of existence, the European single currency - 'the most daring act of integration since the launch of the European integration project' - is facing its biggest challenge yet. Greece, Portugal, and Ireland are still experiencing economic hardships, even after receiving substantial bailout packages in order to avoid defaulting on their debt. Italy and Spain - 'the third and fourth largest economies in the Eurozone' - are close behind, combining high public debts, large budget deficits, and low growth. Germany and France, considered the most robust economies of the Eurozone, are feeling the strain of supporting …

Individual And Household-Level Effects Of Energy Poverty On Human Development, Brandon Bridge

Economics ETDs

This study investigates some of the predictors of energy poverty, the interrelationships between different expressions of energy poverty, and the human development impacts of energy poverty on primarily rural individuals and households in an underdeveloped country. It uses data from four rounds of Nicaragua's Living Standards Measurement Survey, and examines the effects of energy poverty on income, education, and health.

Chapter 1 provides background information on energy poverty in general, as well as the specific situation that has developed in Nicaragua. It also provides a modeling framework, both conceptual and mathematical, for the ways in which energy poverty impacts human …

Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed economic theories related to Mexicans’ motivations in …

A Good Kiwi Isn't Acidic: How Ocean Acidification Is Affecting The New Zealand Economy, Lily G. Hurley

Student Theses 2015-Present

In a country that houses a mere 4 million people, it is no wonder that agriculture has become the main facet of New Zealand’s economy. However, while the sheep and produce have flourished from land protection laws, marine life has struggled in recent years due to an increase in oceanic carbon levels. In an area of the Pacific that is so rich in coral reefs, Great White breeding areas, and a plethora of fish species, any upset of the natural preexisting chemical balance has a tangible impact. New Zealand is dealing with a crisis with huge economic and ecological ramifications. …

Ambiguity Aversion: Adoption, Uptake, And Trends, Adam Franklin

Master's Theses

What is ambiguity aversion and what is its role as a determinant of technology adoption? This study develops and implements a novel ambiguity preference instrument in the context of an ongoing RCT pilot program in southwest Uganda promoting adoption of an improved variety of sweet potato. No correlation between ambiguity aversion and crop adoption is observed, although it is suspected that RCT treatment arms including supply- and demand-side information reduced the ambiguity of the new variety, probably overcoming any ambiguity-preference-related constraints and clouding the picture. Methodological lessons learned regarding the development and implementation of an apporopriate ambiguity preference measure point …

The Impact Of Money Supply And Electronic Money: Empirical Evidence From Central Bank In China, Rui Qin

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this paper is to study the electronic money's influence on the money supply as well as the power of the central bank. We show in an illustrative theoretical model that electronic money will impact on money supply, especially affect M0 and M1. Using data of central bank in China during 1990 to 2010 and applying ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models, we find robust evidence that electronic money has a negative impact on M0, but a positive impact on M1. In addition, the central bank's abilities to control money supply can be affected by the wide application …

A Tanzanian Woman's Place Is On Top: An Exploration Of Women's Participation In Kilimanjaro's Trekking Tourism Industry, Margeaux Prinster

International Development, Community and Environment (IDCE)

While high poverty rates persist for women in Tanzania, the growing trekking tourism industry surrounding Mount Kilimanjaro and its resulting demand for labor presents these impoverished women with a potential avenue for economic empowerment. This paper examines the national and local realities of women’s work in Tanzania, analyzing culturally informed gendered patterns of employment against the colonial and sexist histories of tourism and commercial mountaineering on Mount Kilimanjaro to identify barriers to women’s economic participation in Kilimanjaro’s trekking tourism industry. This analysis is followed by a cross-cultural comparison with Nepal, focusing specifically on women’s barriers to participation in commercial mountaineering, …

Economic Forecasting With Many Predictors, Fanning Meng

Doctoral Dissertations

The dissertation is focused on the analysis of economic forecasting with a large number of predictors.

The first chapter develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed method is based on an averaging scheme applied to quantiles conditional on predictors selected by LASSO. The resulting forecasts outperform the historical average, and other existing models, by statistically and economically meaningful margins.

In the second chapter, we find that incorporating distributional and high-frequency information into a forecasting model can produce substantial accuracy gains. Distributional information is …

An Inquiry Into The Effect Of The 2014 Russian Sanctions On European Gasoline Markets, Eric S. Peters

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Does Globalization Improve Quality Of Life?, Laura E. Hirt

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Sovereign Debt Crises: Domestically Engineered Or Foreignly Influenced?, Michael C. Selfe

Senior Theses and Projects

Throughout the last half century, the world has seen its fair share of systemic banking crises covering every corner of the globe. Recently, the Eurozone crisis of 2010 and ongoing Argentinian debt crisis have continued to plague the global economy. The motivation behind this thesis is to examine what causes these sovereign debt crises. More specifically, it aims to examine whether these crises are caused by monetary and fiscal policy decisions implemented by central banks or if outside factors including the role of financial institutions are to blame. This thesis examines a number of individual case studies with regards to …

Twin Crises And The Financial Accelerator, Andrew Calabrese

Senior Theses and Projects

The incidence of simultaneous banking and currency crises is a recurring theme in emerging economies operating under fixed or quasi-fixed exchange rates. This thesis conducts an empirical analysis of the underlying determinants of so called “twin crises” by applying a probit econometric model to a sample of 48 emerging economies during the 1980-2013 period. Current account deficits are found to be a robust driver of twin crises, with vulnerability increasing in the size of the deficit relative to GDP. There is also evidence that real exchange rate appreciation and higher levels of short-term debt relative to reserves increase crisis probability. …

Essays On The Law Of One Price In Financial Markets And The Recent Financial Crisis, Igor Sorkin

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Essay 1: The theory of the Law of One Price (LOOP) is one of the most important theories in International Economics. I use financial markets to revisit the validity of the LOOP in the short run, and then extend the analysis into the long-run to examine whether events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 can lead to the failure of the LOOP or worsen deviations from it. Using the data on Canadian companies cross-listed on the New York Stock Exchange, I find strong support that the LOOP holds in a cross-sectional framework despite the fact that the sample includes …

Three Essays On Fiscal Policy, Sinem Buber Singh

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the domestic and international effects of fiscal policy shocks on country risk, stock markets returns and trading partners. There are three essays in this study.

First essay examines the relative impacts of macroeconomic, financial and political variables on country risk for five advanced economies; the US, the UK, Canada and Singapore for 1984:M1-2014:M12 and Germany for 1990:M9-2014:M12 time periods. To do so, I follow a two stage estimation procedure. In the first stage, a CAPM is used to estimate time-variant country betas which are used as a proxy for country risk by using a DCC-GARCH model. Then, …

Behind Germany’S Willkommenskultur And Hungary’S Xenophobic Sentiments: Responses To The Syrian Refugee Crisis Within The European Union, Mia Kelliher

International Political Economy Theses

The movement of over 4.5 million Syrian refugees and other migrants fleeing the Syrian civil war has put significant strain on the European Union’s (EU) member states both politically, socially, and economically. This tests a state’s ability and willingness to continue to accept refugees. This paper aims to answer the question of what determines the willingness and the ability of certain EU member states, specifically Germany and Hungary, to accept refugees. While there are many factors that vary from state to state, there are factors that dominate and heavily influence a state’s willingness and ability to accept refugees. Germany’s historical …

Winning The Virtuous Battle, But Losing The War? The Tradeoffs Of Humanitarian Aid And Its Impact On Human Development, Sierra Miller

International Political Economy Theses

This paper addresses the question of what conditions best enable recipient countries to harness humanitarian aid to create long term human development. In an examination of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka, it becomes clear that the conditions that limit humanitarian aid’s potential for human development are more apparent than those that enable it. Political conflict, instability, inequalities, and social divisions in the recipient countries contribute to the limited effect of humanitarian aid on development, but institutional weakness, inconsistency, and competition within the international humanitarian aid community have a larger impact on …

The Viability Of Profit-Loss Sharing Models To Finance Small And Medium Enterprises: The Case Of Saudi Arabia, Alhanoof Alghamdi

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study aims to explore the role of profit-loss sharing (PLS) models to alleviate access to finance for small and medium enterprises in Saudi Arabia, in the light of the stringent requirements of traditional financial institutions, to ensure the growth and development of the SME sector. A central question of this study is the extent to which Islamic banks can adopt profit-loss sharing modes to finance SMEs. The main results present the barriers preventing Islamic banks from the application of profit-loss sharing that increase incidence of agency problems for such institutions. High asymmetry of information and the nature of Islamic …

Governing Militaries In Liberalizing Economies: China, Iran, Egypt, Loosineh Markarian Senagani

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Why have some economically-active militaries of autocratic regimes gained more autonomy vis-à -vis their civilian elite as a consequence of economic liberalization processes adopted in 80s and 90s, whereas others have remained subordinate to civilian control? This dissertation examines the impact of economic liberalization since 1980s on civil-military relations (CMR) in autocratic regimes. Prior to liberalization, the centrally- planned governments of Egypt, Iran, and China utilized their militaries to implement economic development projects. Post-liberalization, these militaries expanded into new economic sectors like finance, banking, and trade. The expansion impacted the balance of CMR differently in each case. Egypt's military took …

Modernization Losers, Political Winners: Assessing The Role Of The Declining Position Of Labor In Right-Wing Electoral Successes Across Western Europe, Eva-Marie C. Quinones

Senior Projects Spring 2017

This Senior Project advances the modernization losers thesis, wherein the electoral successes of the far right in Western Europe are attributable to neoliberal fiscal policy, labor market shifts, and the institutional structure of the euro. Building on an existing body of literature that primarily assesses voting behavior through survey research, this paper assesses the relationship between right-wing electoral successes and the socioeconomic status of semi-skilled, blue-collar laborers thought to comprise the core voting base of extreme right parties, by using panel data at the national and provincial levels to answer the question, “To what extent has the declining position of …

Why Did China Do This? An Analysis On China's New Gasoline "Price Floor" Policy, Youhan Ding

Scripps Senior Theses

Why did China choose certain policy over others that would achieve similar impact? Because China has a significant presence in the modern international community, it is difficult yet critical to understand the policy implications of the Chinese government under its unique political and socioeconomic context. This thesis shows the impact of a specific “price floor” policy China chose to employ in its oil and gasoline market, and identifies the factors concerning the Chinese regime that it took into consideration in the decision making process, through analysing data and official statements released by the government. After different parties affected by this …

Three Essays On Food Safety Regulations And International Trade Of Agricultural Products, Jun Ho Seok

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

This dissertation investigates food safety regulations and international trade of agricultural products dividing into three aspects: the signalling effect from U.S. strict food safety regulations on U.S. vegetable exports, political determinants of sanitary and photosanitary non-tariff barriers, and the impact of trade barriers on employment in developing countries. In chapter 2, we investigate the impact of high U.S. maximum residue limit (MRL) standards on U.S vegetable exports to 102 countries utilizing the hierarchical model. MRL, which is one of non-tariff barriers with respect to food safety, is applied to home and foreign countries at the same time. Thus, firms in …

Geography, Trade, And Macroeconomics, Hao Guo

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation studies the effects of external integration and internal liberalization on the economic geography within a country when regions within the country have different access to the world market.

The first paper introduces internal geography into the Melitz (2003) model to examine how external and internal liberalizations affect the economic geography within a country. By dividing a country into a coastal region and an inland region, the model shows that trade leads the coastal region have a higher than proportional share of industry, and causes firms in the coastal region to be larger and more productive than firms in …

Three Essays On Population Dynamics, Trade And Growth, Anna Maximova

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

Changes in immigration patterns and differential fertility choices shape the economies of both developed and developing countries. However, these changes affect the economies of developed and developing nations in different ways. This study aims to understand the changes in population dynamics, brought about by differences in cross--country differential fertility choices and migration patterns, and how these changes affect economic development via the channels of international trade and cross--country human capital accumulation.

Chapter 1 discusses the background, data and literature on the patterns and composition of immigration and international trade, which are further explored in Chapter 2 for the world sample …

Are Immigrants The Next Great Appliance? The Effects Of Immigration On Female Labor Force Participation, Logan Daniel Callahan

Senior Projects Spring 2017

This paper argues the burgeoning idea that an inflow of low-skilled immigrants into a receiving country can provide benefits for high-skilled native women. In considering the often increased responsibilities held by women in the household, when compared to men, the introduction of immigrants of certain occupations can help ease these responsibilities. A series of regressions explain that the effect is statistically significant, especially when considering low-skilled female immigrants. Policy implications are discussed as well as areas for future research. The paper concludes with a brief secondary theory and discourse on the labor constraints of women.