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International Economics

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Research Collection School Of Economics

Risk

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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Growth And Risk: A View From International Trade, Pravin Krishna, Andrei A. Levcheko, Lin Ma, William F. Maloney Jan 2023

Growth And Risk: A View From International Trade, Pravin Krishna, Andrei A. Levcheko, Lin Ma, William F. Maloney

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality growth and the corresponding cross-sectional variance of quality growth in a country are positively correlated. Second, both the mean and variance of quality changes are positively correlated with the country’s level of financial development. We then test these two hypotheses using data on disaggregated (HS10) bilateral exports to the United States. The patterns in the …


Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu Mar 2012

Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI—firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical patterns of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing firms.


Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu Aug 2011

Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical pattern of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing firms.


Using Financial Econometrics To Measure Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels Oct 2010

Using Financial Econometrics To Measure Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.


Risk, Learning, And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu Feb 2010

Risk, Learning, And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper builds a dynamic model of catching up to examine the policy stance of developing countries in attracting inward FDI. We show that the observably evident risk of FDI failure sets a minimum threshold on the South's technology capacity and furthermore creates a limit on the technology content of inward FDI. We provide economic foundations for the determinants of the FDI risk and formalize how the risk factor evolves over time as the South moves up its technology ladder. The model offers an insightful and tractable framework for empirical studies with a dynamic content, and reconciles many relevant empirical …