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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper re-examines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification bias, allows general forms of heterogeneous membership effects, and addresses potential hidden selection bias. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects that are robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative GATT/WTO indicators, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, inclusion of multilateral resistance terms, and different matching methodologies.
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper reexamines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment effects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, different matching methodologies, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms.
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Rose (2004) showed that the WTO or its predecessor, the GATT, did not promote trade, based on conventional econometric analysis of gravity-type equations of trade. We argue that conclusions regarding the GATT/WTO trade effect based on gravity-type equations are arbitrary and subject to parametric misspecifications. We propose using nonparametric matching methods to estimate the 'treatment effect' of GATT/WTO membership, and permutation-based inferential procedures for assessing statistical significance of the estimated effects. A sensitivity analysis following Rosenbaum (2002) is then used to evaluate the sensitivity of our estimation results to potential selection biases. Contrary to Rose (2004), we find the effect …