Social and Behavioral Sciences | Open Access Articles

Emerging Hot Spot Analysis To Indicate Forest Conservation Priorities And Efficacy On Regional To Continental Scales: A Study Of Forest Change In Selva Maya 2000-2020, Nicholas Cuba, Laura A. Sauls, Anthony J. Bebbington, Denise Humphreys Bebbington, Avecita Chicchon, Pilar Delpino Marimón, Oscar Diaz, Susanna Hecht, Susan Kandel, Tracey Osborne, Rebecca Ray, Madelyn Rivera, John Rogan, Viviana Zalles

Geography

Despite the importance of preserving contiguous tropical forest areas to maintain biodiversity and terrestrial carbon stocks, methodological challenges continue to hinder broad-scale analysis of threats to these forests. Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) is a spatial-statistical method that conveys complex information about the temporal dynamics of deforestation across a range of moderate to coarse spatial scales. Using Global Forest Change (GFC) data as inputs, EHSA produces spatially comprehensive, gridded outputs that represent a standardized, reproduceable way to instantiate contiguous forest tracts as spatial objects. Doing so allows aggregation of other GFC-derived values and analysis of alternative geographic configurations besides sub-national …

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Middle-Range Theories Of Land System Change, P. Meyfroidt, Rinku Roy Chowdhury, A. De Bremond, E. C. Ellis, K. H. Erb, T. Filatova, R. D. Garrett, J. M. Grove, A. Heinimann, T. Kuemmerle, C. A. Kull, E. F. Lambin, Y. Landon, Y. Le Polain De Waroux, P. Messerli, D. Müller, J. Nielsen, G. D. Peterson, V. Rodriguez García, M. Schlüter, B. L. Turner, P. H. Verburg

Geography

Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land-cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, …

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Criteria To Confirm Models That Simulate Deforestation And Carbon Disturbance, Robert Gilmore Pontius

Geography

The Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) recommends the Figure of Merit (FOM) as a possible metric to confirm models that simulate deforestation baselines for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The FOM ranges from 0% to 100%, where larger FOMs indicate more-accurate simulations. VCS requires that simulation models achieve a FOM greater than or equal to the percentage deforestation during the calibration period. This article analyses FOM's mathematical properties and illustrates FOM's empirical behavior by comparing various models that simulate deforestation and the resulting carbon disturbance in Bolivia during 2010-2014. The Total Operating Characteristic frames FOM's mathematical properties as …

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Design And Interpretation Of Intensity Analysis Illustrated By Land Change In Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, Robert Gilmore Pontius, Yan Gao, Nicholas M. Giner, Takashi Kohyama, Mitsuru Osaki, Kazuyo Hirose

Geography

Intensity Analysis has become popular as a top-down hierarchical accounting framework to analyze differences among categories, such as changes in land categories over time. Some aspects of interpretation are straightforward, while other aspects require deeper thought. This article explains how to interpret Intensity Analysis with respect to four concepts. First, we illustrate how to analyze whether error could account for non-uniform changes. Second, we explore two types of the large dormant category phenomenon. Third, we show how results can be sensitive to the selection of the domain. Fourth, we explain how Intensity Analysis' symmetric top-down hierarchy influences interpretation with respect …

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Statistical Methods To Partition Effects Of Quantity And Location During Comparison Of Categorical Maps At Multiple Resolutions, R. Gil Pontius

Geography

New generalized statistical methods to measure agreement between two maps at multiple-resolutions, where each cell in each map has a multinomial distribution among any number of categories, are presented. This methodology quantifies agreement between any two categorical maps, where either map uses fuzzy or crisp classification. The method measures the agreement at various resolutions by aggregating neighboring cells into an increasingly coarse grid. At each resolution, the method partitions the overall agreement into correct due to chance, correct due to quantity, correct due to location, error due to location, and error due to quantity. In addition, the method computes six …

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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Geography

Geography

Criteria To Confirm Models That Simulate Deforestation And Carbon Disturbance, Robert Gilmore Pontius

Geography

Design And Interpretation Of Intensity Analysis Illustrated By Land Change In Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, Robert Gilmore Pontius, Yan Gao, Nicholas M. Giner, Takashi Kohyama, Mitsuru Osaki, Kazuyo Hirose

Geography

Statistical Methods To Partition Effects Of Quantity And Location During Comparison Of Categorical Maps At Multiple Resolutions, R. Gil Pontius

Geography