Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Income Inequality And Household Debt: A Cointegration Test, Edmond Berisha, John Meszaros, Eric Olson

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This article employs the Johansen and Engle–Granger methodology to determine if there is a cointegrating relationship between household debt and income inequality as measured by Atkinson, Piketty and Saez (2011). The results suggest a cointegrating relationship between the two series. A vector error correction model is estimated showing that a shock to household debt has statistically significant effects on income inequality in the United States over the time period 1919–2009.

Ramsey Equilibrium With Liberal Borrowing, Robert A. Becker, Kirill Borissov, Ram Dubey

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper considers a multi-agent one-sector Ramsey equilibrium growth model with borrowing constraints. The extreme borrowing constraint used in the classical version of the model, surveyed in Becker (2006), and the limited form of borrowing constraint examined in Borissov and Dubey (2015) are relaxed to allow more liberal borrowing by the households. A perfect foresight equilibrium is shown to exist in this economy. We describe the steady state equilibria for the liberal borrowing regime and show that as the borrowing regime is progressively liberalized, the steady state wealth inequality increases. Unlike the case of a limited borrowing regime, an equilibrium …

Inflationary Dynamics In Guatemala, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Miguel Martinez, Wm. Doyle Smith, Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

Short-run price dynamics for Guatemala are analyzed using a linear transfer function methodology. This approach has previously been employed for other national economies such as the United States, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and Nigeria. The data for this study range from 1960 to 2010. Inflation is measured using the consumer price index. Explanatory variables include the monetary base, real output, interest rates, and the exchange rate. All of the estimated coefficients exhibit the arithmetic signs hypothesized by the theoretical model. Almost all of the parameter estimates satisfy the 5-percent significance criterion and all exhibit economically plausible magnitudes. Estimation results indicate that …

Cross-Listing Performance And Insider Ownership: The Experience Of U.S. Investors, Omar A. Esqueda, Dave Jackson

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

Insider-owned firms pursue U.S. cross-listings following periods of extraordinary performance. However, the long-run post-cross-listing abnormal returns become negative only for insider-controlled cross-listings. We find that the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) has mitigated the market-timing attempts as negative abnormal returns are limited to the pre-SOX period, supporting a cross-listing bonding benefit after U.S. securities regulation was enhanced. In addition, investors anticipate future operating performance as stock returns incorporate forthcoming operating outcomes one and two years ahead. Whereas capital-raising cross-listings show better operating performance than non-capital-raising, the returns of capital-raising firms are more sensitive to the potential agency problems created by insider-ownership.

Hyperbolic Memory Discounting And The Political Business Cycle, T. Scott Findley

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The vintage political business cycle framework of Nordhaus (1975) represents the idea that the macroeconomic business cycle is manipulated opportunistically by an incumbent government to achieve re-election. A key assumption in this prototypical framework is that voters discount their memories about unemployment and inflation at a constant rate. Yet starting with Ebbinghaus (1885) and Jost (1897), a large body of research in psychology documents an empirical regularity that has come to be known as Jost's Second Law of Forgetting-individuals discount recent memories at a higher rate compared to the rate at which they discount older memories. I find that incorporating …

Trade Integration, Income Divergence, And Global Imbalances, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We embed financial frictions and sector-specific minimum investment requirements (MIR) in a two-factor, two-sector, overlapping-generation model and showthat whether trade integration leads to convergence of the income levels among member states depends on their level of financial development. It helps reconcilethe mixed empirical evidence on trade integration and income dynamics in differentgroups of countries from the institutional perspective. In the recent decades, trade globalization has allowed developed countries to specialize towards the high-MIR, high-return production stages and tasks through international fragmentation of production and global sourcing. In our model, the “sectors” can be interpreted broadly as production stages and tasks. …

Financing Terrorism: A Look At The Past, Present, And Future Of Defunding Terror Organizations, Mitchell Wasmund

University Honors Program

Terrorism is a major problem facing governments across the globe in the 21st century. Terror organizations, domestic and international, are complex and vary in structure as well as how they are financed. By using various governmental and journalistic resources, this paper will examine four different terror organizations in how they are operated and financed. It will focus on what are the current practices by law enforcement officials to stop the sources of terror organizations’ funds. This paper will also examine future areas of concern related to where terror organizations will receive their financing in the future. The impacts of economic …

On Emerging Asia-Pacific Equity Markets From The Perspective Of The Dynamics Of Mean And Volatility Spillovers, Li Xu

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the dynamics of mean and volatility spillovers from the U.S. and three large (regional) Asia-Pacific stock markets to ten small (local) ones from June 2008 to May 2013.

After a brief introduction to the main purposes and contributions of my research in Chapter 1, I examine the impact of lagged American and regional returns on the local markets in Chapter 2. By building up a univariate autoregressive model and treating lagged U.S. and regional returns as exogenous variables, I find that the local markets have statistically significant exposure to lagged returns of their own and the U.S. …

Assessing The Impact Of Investment Shortfalls On Unfunded Pension Liabilities: The Allure Of Neat, But Faulty Counterfactuals, Robert M. Costrell

Education Reform Faculty and Graduate Students Publications

In this paper I provide a methodological critique of the conventional method for assessing the impact of investment shortfalls and other contributors to unfunded pension liabilities, and offer a methodologically sound replacement with substantive policy implications. The conventional method – simply summing the annual actuarial gain/loss figures over time – provides a neat, additive decomposition of the sources of the rise in the Unfunded Accrued Liability (UAL). In doing so, however, it implicitly assumes that in the counterfactual exercise, amortization would adjust dollar-for-dollar with the interest on additional UAL. That is, even if the total (and average) shortfall from covering …

Optimal Taxation And Debt With Uninsurable Risks To Human Capital Accumulation, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider an economy where individuals face uninsurable risks to their human capital accumulation and analyze the optimal level of linear taxes on capital and labor income together with the optimal path of government debt. We show that in the presence of such risks, it is beneficial to tax both labor and capital and to issue public debt. We also assess the quantitative importance of these findings, and show that the benefits of government debt and capital taxes both increase with the magnitude of idiosyncratic risks and the degree of relative risk aversion.

Remittances Without Borders, Tan Swee Liang, S. N. Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora

Research Collection School Of Economics

A Pan-Asian Mobile Remittance Platform might just be the next big disruption in global remittances. One out of every 28 people lives in a country that they were not born in. As migrants, they are estimated by The World Bank to send home US$636 billion in 2017, with three-quarters remitted to developing countries. These remittances form a significant percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of many of these developing countries. Given their magnitude and contribution to national economies, even a small reduction in remittance cost adds billions to these local economies. Mobile-to-mobile cross border remittances have recently shown that …

Competition Of The Informed: Does The Presence Of Short Sellers Affect Insider Selling?, Massimo Massa, Wenlan Qian, Weibiao Xu, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how the presence of short sellers affects the incentives of the insiders to trade on negative information. We show it induces insiders to sell more (shares from their existing stakes) and trade faster to preempt the potential competition from short sellers. An experiment and instrumental variable analysis confirm this causal relationship. The effects are stronger for "opportunistic" (i.e., more informed) insider trades and when short sellers' attention is high. Return predictability of insider sales only occurs in stocks with high short-selling potential, suggesting that short sellers indirectly enhance the speed of information dissemination by accelerating trading by insiders. …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Financial And Housing Wealth, Expenditures And The Dividend To Ownership, Sheng Guo Ph.D., William G. Hardin Iii

Economics Research Working Paper Series

For a household, home ownership provides necessary shelter, potential investment returns associated with property appreciation and a hedge against increased housing related cash outlays. In addition to potential appreciation, individual households benefit over time from a housing dividend defined as the difference between the market rent for the individual household’s housing unit and the household’s actual house ownership costs. The purchase of a house can substantially fix a household’s recurring housing related expenditures and generates a hedge (implied housing dividend) that increases with ownership tenure. This expenditure hedge (dividend) to home ownership is documented using pooled, cross-year samples from the …

Wealth Inequality And Financial Development: Revisiting The Symmetry Breaking Mechanism, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Antipsychotic Quality Reporting On Antipsychotic And Psychoactive Medication Use, John R. Bowblis, Judith A. Lucas, Christopher Brunt

Finance and Economics Faculty Publications

Objective

The objective of this study is to examine how nursing homes changed their use of antipsychotic and other psychoactive medications in response to Nursing Home Compare's initiation of publicly reporting antipsychotic use in July 2012.

Research Design and Subjects

The study includes all state recertification surveys (n = 40,415) for facilities six quarters prior and post the initiation of public reporting. Using a difference-in-difference framework, the change in use of antipsychotics and other psychoactive medications is compared for facilities subject to public reporting and facilities not subject to reporting.

Principal Findings

The percentage of residents using antipsychotics, hypnotics, …

Referrals: Peer Screening And Enforcement In A Consumer Credit Field Experiment, Gharad Bryan, Dean Karlan, Jonathan Zinman

Dartmouth Scholarship

Empirical evidence on peer intermediation lags behind both theory and practice in which lenders use peers to mitigate adverse selection and moral hazard. Using a referral incentive under individual liability, we develop a two-stage field experiment that permits separate identification of peer screening and enforcement. Our key contribution is to allow for borrower heterogeneity in both ex ante repayment type and ex post susceptibility to social pressure. Our method allows identification of selection on repayment likelihood, selection on susceptibility to social pressure, and loan enforcement. Implementing our method in South Africa we find no evidence of screening but large enforcement …

Signaling In Online Credit Markets, Kei Kawai, Ken Onishi, Kosuke Uetake

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how signaling affects equilibrium outcomes and welfare in markets with adverse selection. Using data from an online credit market, we estimate a model of borrowers and lenders where low reserve interest rates can signal low default risk. Comparing a market with and without signaling relative to the benchmark case with no asymmetric information, we find that adverse selection destroys as much as 16% of total surplus, up to 95% of which can be restored with signaling. We also find the credit supply curves to be backward-bending for some markets, consistent with the prediction of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981).

Institutional Investors In Corporate Governance, Edward B. Rock

All Faculty Scholarship

This chapter of the Oxford Handbook on Corporate Law and Governance examines the role of institutional investors in corporate governance and the role of regulation in encouraging institutional investors to become active stewards. I approach these topics through asking what lessons we can draw from the U.S. experience for the E.U.’s 2014 proposed amendments to the Shareholder Rights Directive.

I begin by defining the institutional investor category, and summarizing the growth of institutional investors’ equity holdings over time. I then briefly survey how institutional investors themselves are governed and how they organize share voting. This leads me to two central …

Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

A Greek exit could spell the euro zone's disintegration. The Greek referendum last Sunday resoundingly backed its embattled government over its tortuous negotiations with the Troika of the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Greece is now back at the negotiating table, which may ease the terms of loan repayment and lighten the reforms demanded or it may lead to a Grexit.

Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.

Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.

Role For Singapore In Mobile Phone Remittances, Tan Swee Liang, Singanallore Narayanan Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora

Research Collection School Of Economics

As sending money home this way takes off, the country can provide a Pan-Asian platform

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Business Cycle Effects On Us Sectoral Stock Returns, Keran Song

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

My dissertation investigated business cycle effects on US sectoral stock returns.

The first chapter examined the relationship between the business cycle and sectoral stock returns. First, I calculated constant correlation coefficients between the business cycle and sectoral stock returns. Then, I employed the DCC GARCH model to estimate time-varying correlation coefficients for each pair of the business cycle and sectoral stock returns. Finally, I ran regression of sectoral returns on dummy variables designed to capture the four stages of the business cycle. I found that though sectoral stock returns were closely related to the business cycle, they did not share …

The Economics Of Counterfeiting, Elena Quercioli, Lones Smith

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

We develop a strategic theory of counterfeiting as a multi-market large game. Bad guys choose whether to counterfeit, and what quality to produce. Opposing them is a continuum of good guys who select a costly verification effort. In equilibrium, counterfeiters produce better quality at higher notes, but verifiers try sufficiently harder that verification still improves. We develop a graphical framework for deducing comparative statics. Passed and counterfeiting rates vanish for low and high notes. Our predictions are consistent with time series and cross-sectional patterns in a unique data set assembled largely from the Secret Service

Effect Of Weather Delays On Shareholder Value: Evidence From The Airline Industry, Jayendra Gokhale, Sunder Raghavan

Publications

Airlines measure service quality based on different factors such as on-time performance, delays and cancellations, mishandled baggage and denied boardings. Among the above factors, recent studies show that long delays and cancellations have a major impact on airlines bottom line not only in terms of current costs but also in terms of loss of future revenue. Finance literature tells us that stock prices reflect the present value of future cash flows. In this paper we use event study methodology to examine how weather delay and cancellations affect current stock market returns for our sample airlines. We find some evidence that …

The Invisible Hand Of Short Selling: Does Short Selling Discipline Earnings Management?, Massimo Massa, Bohui Zhang, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We hypothesize that short selling has a disciplining role vis-a-vis firm managers that forces them to reduce earnings management. Using firm-level short-selling data for thirty-three countries collected over a sample period from 2002 to 2009, we document a significantly negative relationship between the threat of short selling and earnings management. Tests based on instrumental variable and exogenous regulatory experiments offer evidence of a causal link between short selling and earnings management. Our findings suggest that short selling functions as an external governance mechanism to discipline managers.

The New Synthesis Of Bank Regulation And Bankruptcy In The Dodd-Frank Era, David A. Skeel Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

Since the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, U.S. bank regulation and bankruptcy have become far more closely intertwined. In this Article, I ask whether the new synthesis of bank regulation and bankruptcy is coherent, and whether it is likely to prove effective.

I begin by exploring some of the basic differences between bank resolution, which is a highly administrative process in the U.S., and bankruptcy, which relies more on courts and the parties themselves. I then focus on a series of remarkable new innovations designed to facilitate the rapid recapitalization of systemically important financial institutions: convertible contingent capital …

The Federal Reserve And A Cascade Of Failures: Inequality, Cognitive Narrowness And Financial Network Theory, Emma Coleman Jordan

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

The recent financial crisis hollowed out the core of American middle-class financial stability. In the wake of the financial crisis, household net worth in the U.S. fell by 24%, for a loss of $16 trillion. Moreover, retirement accounts, the largest class of financial assets, took a steep drop in value, as did house prices, and these two classes of assets alone represent approximately 43% of all household wealth. The losses during the principal crisis years, 2007–2009, were devastating, “erasing almost two decades of accumulated prosperity,” in the words of a 2013 report. By the Federal Reserve. Beyond these direct household …