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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Xtreme Credit Risk Models: Implications For Bank Capital Buffers, David E. Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert J. Powell, Abhay K. Singh
Xtreme Credit Risk Models: Implications For Bank Capital Buffers, David E. Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert J. Powell, Abhay K. Singh
Research outputs 2011
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of measuring and understanding extreme credit risk. This paper applies Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) techniques, traditionally used in the insurance industry to measure risk beyond a predetermined threshold, to four credit models. For each of the models we use both Historical and Monte Carlo Simulation methodology to create CVaR measurements. The four extreme models are derived from modifications to the Merton structural model (which we term Xtreme-S), the CreditMetrics Transition model (Xtreme-T), Quantile regression (Xtreme-Q), and the author’s own unique iTransition model (Xtreme-i) which incorporates industry factors into transition matrices. For …
Bank Risk: Does Size Matter?, David Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert Powell, Abhay K. Singh
Bank Risk: Does Size Matter?, David Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert Powell, Abhay K. Singh
Research outputs 2011
The size of banks is examined as a determinant of bank risk. A wide range of banks are examined across four regions, including Australia, Canada, Europe and the USA. Four risk metrics are considered including Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, which measures risk beyond VaR), Probability of Default (PD) using Merton structural methodology, and Conditional Probability of Default (CPD, the author’s own model which measures risk based on extreme asset value fluctuations. Daily equity and asset value fluctuations are included in the analysis, including pre-GFC and GFC periods. In addition to examining size in isolation as …