Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A New Agent-Based Model Provides Insight Into Assumptions In Modeling Forest Management Under Deep Uncertainty, Garry Sotnik, Robert M. Scheller, Brooke Alyce Cassell, Matthew Joshua Duveneck

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Context: Exploratory modeling in forestry uses a variety of approaches to study forest management questions. One key assumption that every approach makes is about the degree of deep uncertainty—the lack of knowledge required for making an informed decision—that future forest managers will face. This assumption can strongly influence simulation results and the conclusions drawn from them, but is rarely studied.

Objectives: Our objective was to measure the degree of deep uncertainty within a forest management simulation to compare alternative modeling approaches and improve understanding of when a specific approach should be applied. Methods We first developed a method for measuring …