Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Disequilibrium Of Fire-Prone Forests Sets The Stage For A Rapid Decline In Conifer Dominance During The 21st Century, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Charles Maxwell, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Danelle M. Laflower, Adam D. Miller, Alan J. Tepley, Howard E. Epstein, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Jonathan R. Thompson

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

As trees are long-lived organisms, the impacts of climate change on forest communities may not be apparent on the time scale of years to decades. While lagged responses to environmental change are common in forested systems, potential for abrupt transitions under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath mountains (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) are currently dominated by carbon rich and hyper-diverse temperate conifer forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability– regeneration and fire tolerance— via shifts in the fire regime in conjunction …