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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 4 of 4
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Cellulosic Biofuels: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Cellulosic Biofuels: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series
In this paper we structure, obtain and analyze results of an expert elicitation on the relationship between U. S. government Research & Development funding and the likelihood of achieving advances in cellulosic biofuel technologies. While there was disagreement among the experts on each of the technologies, the patterns of disagreement suggest several distinct strategies. Selective Thermal Processing appears to be the most promising path, with the main question being how much funding is required to achieve success. Thus, a staged investment in this path looks promising. With respect to gasification, there remains fundamental disagreement over whether success is possible even …
Battery Technology For Electric And Hybrid Vehicles: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Battery Technology For Electric And Hybrid Vehicles: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series
In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with lithium metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150M/yr lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost …
Carbon Capture And Storage: Combining Economic Analysis With Expert Elicitations To Inform Climate Policy, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Carbon Capture And Storage: Combining Economic Analysis With Expert Elicitations To Inform Climate Policy, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series
The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in carbon capture and storage. We find a significant amount of disagreement between experts, even over the most mature technology; and this disagreement is most pronounced in regards to cost estimates. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the …
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
College of Management Working Papers and Reports
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we show the importance of including both uncertainties when modeling for policy analysis. We then develop an approach for incorporating uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We define and demonstrate a protocol for bottom-up expert assessments about prospects for technologies. We then describe a method for using such assessments to derive a probability distribution over future abatement curves, and to estimate random return functions for technological investment in different areas. Finally, we show how these analytic results could be used in a variety of energy-economic models …