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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Jeffrey Keisler
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we show the importance of including both uncertainties when modeling for policy analysis. We then develop an approach for incorporating uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We define and demonstrate a protocol for bottom-up expert assessments about prospects for technologies. We then describe a method for using such assessments to derive a probability distribution over future abatement curves, and to estimate random return functions for technological investment in different areas. Finally, we show how these analytic results could be used in a variety of energy-economic models …
Allocating Contractor Risks In The Hanford Waste Cleanup, Jeffrey M. Keisler, William A. Buehring, Peter D. Mclaughlin, Mark A. Robershotte, Ronald G. Whitfield
Allocating Contractor Risks In The Hanford Waste Cleanup, Jeffrey M. Keisler, William A. Buehring, Peter D. Mclaughlin, Mark A. Robershotte, Ronald G. Whitfield
Jeffrey Keisler
Organizations may view outsourcing as a way to manage risk. We developed a decision-analytic approach to determine which risks the buyer can share or shift to vendors and which ones it should bear. We found that allocating risks incorrectly could increase costs dramatically. Between 1995 and 1998, we used this approach to develop the request for proposals (RFP) for the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) privatization initiative for the Hanford tank waste remediation system (TWRS). In the model, we used an assessment protocol to predict how vendors would react to proposed risk allocations in terms of their actions and their …