Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Computational Decision Support For Socio-Technical Awareness Of Land-Use Planning Under Complexity—A Dam Resilience Planning Case Study, Andreas Tolk, Jennifer A. Richkus, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

Land-use planning for modern societies requires technical competence as well as social competence. We therefore propose an integrative solution enabling better land-use planning and management through better-informed decision-making. We adapt a method developed for cross-disciplinary team building to identify the stakeholders and their various objectives and value systems. We use these results to populate artificial societies embedded into a dynamic data analytics framework as a tool to identify, explore, and visualize the challenges resulting from the different objectives and value systems in land-use planning and management. To prove the feasibility of the proposed solution, we present two use cases from …

Understanding And Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting From Extreme Heat Exposure Due To Lack Of Tree Canopies In Norfolk, Va Using Agent-Based Modeling, Virginia Zamponi, Kevin O'Brien, Erik Jensen, Brandon Feldhaus, Russell Moore, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature trees with large canopies a simple and effective way to reduce urban heat. We develop a demographically representative 1 (agent): 1 (person) agent-based model to understand the extent to which different demographics of residents in Norfolk, VA are equitably shaded …

Combining Green Metrics And Digital Twins For Sustainability Planning And Governance Of Smart Buildings And Cities, Casey R. Corrado, Suzanne M. Delong, Emily G. Holt, Edward Y. Hua, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

Creating a more sustainable world will require a coordinated effort to address the rise of social, economic, and environmental concerns resulting from the continuous growth of cities. Supporting planners with tools to address them is pivotal, and sustainability is one of the main objectives. Modeling and simulation augmenting digital twins can play an important role to implement these tools. Although various green best practices have been utilized over time and there are related attempts at measuring green success, works in the published literature tend to focus on addressing a single problem (e.g., energy efficiency), and a comprehensive approach that takes …

Human Ergonomic Simulation To Support The Design Of An Exoskeleton For Lashing/De-Lashing Operations Of Containers Cargo, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Vittorio Solina, Virginia D' Augusta, Stefan Venzl, Roberto Calbi, Michele Bartuni, Ornella Anastasi, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Lashing and de-lashing operations of containers cargo on board containerships are considered as quite strenuous activities in which operators are required to work continuously over a 6 or 8 hours shift with very limited break. This is mostly because containerships need to leave the port as soon as possible and containers loading and unloading operations must be executed with very high productivity (stay moored in a port is a totally unproductive time for a ship and a loss-making business for a shipping company). Operators performing lashing and de-lashing operations are subjected to intense ergonomic stress and uncomfortable working postures. To …

Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Knowledge Representation Of Hazardous Industrial Operations, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Letizia Nicoletti, Caterina Fusto, Mohaiad Elbasheer, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Hazardous industrial operations are highly stochastic, still human-dependent, and risky. Operators working in such an environment must understand the complex interrelation between several factors contributing to safe and effective operations. Therefore, being able to predict the effects of their actions on provoking or mitigating possible accidents is crucial. This study aims to utilize fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to model the expert’s reasoning about occupational health and safety (OHS) in confined space. This knowledge is used by operators to build their mental models. The developed FCM displays all the possible incidents of a confined space and links these incidents with all …

Human Factors, Ergonomics And Industry 4.0 In The Oil & Gas Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Lucia Gazzaneo, Jessica Frangella, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Over the last few years, the Human Factors and Ergonomics (HF/E) discipline has significantly benefited from new human-centric engineered digital solutions of the 4.0 industrial age. Technologies are creating new socio-technical interactions between human and machine that minimize the risk of design-induced human errors and have largely contributed to remarkable improvements in terms of process safety, productivity, quality, and workers’ well-being. However, despite the Oil&Gas (O&G) sector is one of the most hazardous environments where human error can have severe consequences, Industry 4.0 aspects are still scarcely integrated with HF/E. This paper calls for a holistic understanding of the changing …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …

Incorporating Diegetic Elements To Increase Engagement In Games For Engineering Education, Katherine Smith, Yuzhong Shen, Anthony W. Dean

VMASC Publications

One of the difficulties in developing educational games is maintaining player engagement. This engagement is critical for games to provide effective learning experiences. One way to increase engagement in games is to limit interruptions during game play. In educational games, this can be accomplished by incorporating learning or problem-solving elements diegetically. Diegetic elements are those that are part of the game scene. With this in mind, a series of games for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education has been developed focusing on content in courses that are prerequisites to the engineering curriculum. These games cover topics in pre-calculus, calculus, …

Forecasting Changes In Religiosity And Existential Security With An Agent-Based Model, Ross J. Gore, Carlos Lemos, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) …

Integrating A Simple Traffic Incident Model For Rapid Evacuation Analysis, Andrew J. Collins, R. Michael Robinson, Peter Foytik, Craig Jordan, Barry C. Ezell

VMASC Publications

Road transportation networks are a segment of society's critical infrastructure particularly susceptible to service disruptions. Traffic incidents disrupt road networks by producing blockages and increasing travel times, creating significant impacts during emergency events such as evacuations. For this reason, it is extremely important to incorporate traffic incidents in evacuation planning models. Emergency managers and decision makers need tools that enable rapid assessment of multiple, varied scenarios. Many evacuation simulations require high-fidelity data input making them impractical for rapid deployment by practitioners. Since there is such variation in evacuation types and the method of disruption, evacuation models do not require the …

Panic That Spreads Sociobehavioral Contagion In Pedestrian Evacuations, Terra Elzie, Erika Frydenlund, Andrew J. Collins, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

Crowds are a part of everyday public life, from stadiums and arenas to school hallways. Occasionally, pushing within the crowd spontaneously escalates to crushing behavior, resulting in injuries and even death. The rarity and unpredictability of these incidents provides few options to collect data for research on the prediction and prevention of hazardous emergent behaviors in crowds. This study takes a close look at the way states of agitation, such as panic, can spread through crowds. Group composition—mainly family groups composed of members with differing mobility levels—plays an important role in the spread of agitation through the crowd, ultimately affecting …

Exploring A Toll Auction Mechanism Enabled By Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology, Andrew J. Collins, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, Mecit Cetin

VMASC Publications

High-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes—an increasingly popular solution for congested roadway networks—give drivers the option to access express lanes. The cost of entry often varies with demand, although no standard method of optimizing these price points exists. Using the principles of a Vickrey auction that incentivizes true-value bids, this paper proposes a tolling system that uses vehicle-to-infrastructure technology to optimize toll operator revenue with HOT lane usage. In the scenario, a roadway network consists of a HOT lane and a general-purpose lane, each with identical physical properties. Drivers can access the HOT lane at the start of the facility or at …

Toward A Formalism Of Modeling And Simulation Using Model Theory, Saikou Y. Diallo, Jose Padilla, Ross Gore, Heber Herencia-Zapana, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

This article proposes a Modeling and Simulation (M&S) formalism using Model Theory. The article departs from the premise that M&S is the science that studies the nature of truth using models and simulations. Truth in models and simulations is relative as they seek to answer specific modeling questions. Consequently, truth in M&S is relative because every model is a purposeful abstraction of reality. We use Model Theory to express the proposed formalism because it is built from the premise that truth is relative. The proposed formalism allows us to: (1) deduce formal definitions and explanations of areas of study in …

Generic Incident Model For Investigating Traffic Incident Impacts On Evacuation Times In Large-Scale Emergencies, Andrew J. Collins, Peter Foytik, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, Craig A. Jordan

VMASC Publications

Traffic incidents cause a ripple effect of reduced travel speeds, lane changes, and the pursuit of alternative routes that results in gridlock on the immediately affected and surrounding roadways. The disruptions caused by the secondary effects significantly degrade travel time reliability, which is of great concern to the emergency planners who manage evacuations. Outcomes forecast by a generic incident model embedded in a microscopic evacuation simulation, the Real-Time Evacuation Planning Model (RtePM), were examined to quantify the change in time required for an emergency evacuation that results from traffic incidents. The incident model considered vehicle miles traveled on each individual …

Path Clearance For Emergency Vehicles Through The Use Of Vehicle-To-Vehicle Communication, Craig Jordan, Mecit Cetin, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The study described in this paper evaluated and tested a new strategy to enable emergency response vehicles (EVs) to navigate through congestion at signalized intersections more efficiently. The proposed strategy involves the use of vehicle-to-vehicle communication to send messages to alert vehicles to the approach of the EV and to provide specific instructions on maneuvering to allow the EV to proceed through congested signalized intersections as quickly as possible. This movement is achieved by creation of a split in the vehicle queue in one lane at a critical location to allow the EV to proceed at its desired speed but …

A System Dynamics Model For Simulating Ambulatory Health Care Demands, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Mandar Tulpule

VMASC Publications

Introduction: This article demonstrates the utility of the system dynamics approach to model and simulate US demand for ambulatory health care service both for the general population and for specific cohort subpopulations over the 5-year period, from 2003 to 2008. A system dynamics approach that is shown to meaningfully project demand for services has implications for health resource planning and for generating knowledge that is critical to assessing interventions.

Methods: The study uses a cohort-component method in combination with structural modeling to simulate ambulatory health care utilization. Data are drawn from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the National …

The Value Of Modeling And Simulation Standards, Andrew J. Collins, David Meyr, Solomon Sherfey, Andreas Tolk, Mikel Petty

VMASC Publications

In the current economic climate, there is a requirement to justify all government spending by demonstrating the added-value that the expenditure gives. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) community is not exempted from this rule. This paper focuses on attempts to value standards and demonstrates that even though a myriad of different standards exist in the United States today, no one has "cracked the nut" on determining their value. This does not mean that standards are without value. The paper highlights their importance to our society and human development as a whole. Thus if we cannot give a value to M&S standards, …

Distribution Analysis Of Freight Transportation With Gravity Model And Genetic Algorithm, Jun Duanmu, Peter Foytik, Asad Khattak, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The application of a gravity model in freight modeling work on both short-haul and long-haul trips is discussed. A commodity-based gravity model was developed to assess the distribution of freight by long-haul trucks in southeastern Virginia. Although gravity models have been used extensively in transportation studies, little work has been done to address the special characteristics of freight transportation, such as the definition of friction factors and the differences between long-haul and short-haul trips. Results of a recent study of these and similar problems provide valuable insight into freight distribution modeling. A new calibration method that used a genetic algorithm …

Evacuee Route Choice Decisions In A Dynamic Hurricane Evacuation Context, R. Michael Robinson, Asad Khattak

VMASC Publications

Very high traffic volumes may lead to extensive congestion during hurricane evacuations. Evacuation planners reduce this congestion by careful planning for multiple hurricane scenarios and assignment of evacuation routes and timing. This planning may be for naught if obstructions block key roadways. An advanced traveler information system (ATIS) may be used to guide evacuees to alternate routes, but how effective will that guidance be? Should the use of alternate routes be encouraged? How are drivers likely to respond to delays and information? Will information shorten or improve the reliability of travel times in emergency conditions? Integration of a dynamic evacuation …

Colonel Blotto Games And Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination, Andrew Collins, Patrick T. Hester

VMASC Publications

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using …

Selection Of Source And Use Of Traffic Information In Emergency Situations, R. Michael Robinson, Asad Khattak

VMASC Publications

The access and the use of advanced traveler information systems (ATISs) by drivers during normal commuting have been extensively assessed and analyzed. Emergency managers and transportation officials have extended the results of studies of ATIS use under routine conditions to emergency scenarios under the assumption that drivers' responses to information under emergency conditions mimic those seen under normal driving conditions. A recent survey of potential hurricane evacuees suggests the need to revisit this assumption. Results indicate that although commercial radio reports and variable message signs continue to be the sources of traffic information cited the most frequently, other information sources …

Route Change Decision Making By Hurricane Evacuees Facing Congestion, R. Michael Robinson, Asad Khattak

VMASC Publications

Successful evacuations of metropolitan areas require overcoming unexpected congestion that reduces traffic flows. Congestion may result from accidents, incidents, or other events that reduce road capacity. Traffic professionals and emergency managers may promote deviations from planned routes to bypass an area of congestion and speed mass exit. However, some route changes may actually reduce traffic flow rates, and in these cases decision makers may want to discourage use of alternate routes. By using results of a behavioral survey of potential hurricane evacuees, this study identifies variables associated with the decision to alter routes and also identifies frequently used information sources. …