Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Will The Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 Targets Be Met?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

EARLY THIS YEAR, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. signed the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 (PDP). The document contains hundreds of targets. Some of the key targets to be attained by 2028 are as follows (in fact, the Plan provides yearly targets):

1.) an annual growth rate of 6.5-8% (since 2024); 2.) a gross national income per capita of $6,044-$6,571 (50% higher than that in 2023); 3.) inflation between 2%-4% (from 2.5%-4.5% in 2023); 4.) a government fiscal deficit of 3% (from 6.1% in 2023); 5.) a debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%-53% (from 60%-62% in 2023); 6.) an unemployment rate of 4%-5% (from …

Cross-Border Technology Investments In Recession, Juliana Yu Sun, Huanhuan Zheng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Utilizing industry-level foreign direct investment (FDI) from 72 source markets to 122 destination markets between 2003 to 2018, we evaluate how cross-border technology investments respond to economic recessions. We find that FDI embedded with intensive research and development (R&D) drops when the destination market is in a recession and the source market is in a normal state and recovers to the pre-recession levels when both destination and source markets are in recession. However, there is little evidence that recessions affect cross-border investments in other aspects of technology measured by the penetration of robots, intellectual property products and information and communications …

Religion And Growth, Sascha O. Becker, Jared Rubin, Ludger Woessmann

ESI Working Papers

We use the elements of a macroeconomic production function—physical capital, human capital, labor, and technology—together with standard growth models to frame the role of religion in economic growth. Unifying a growing literature, we argue that religion can enhance or impinge upon economic growth through all four elements because it shapes individual preferences, societal norms, and institutions. Religion affects physical capital accumulation by influencing thrift and financial development. It affects human capital through both religious and secular education. It affects population and labor by influencing work effort, fertility, and the demographic transition. And it affects total factor productivity by constraining or …

The Administration’S Objective To Reduce The Fiscal Deficit To 3% Of Gdp By 2028: Why And How?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

A few weeks ago, the author attended a presentation on the Philippine economy and prospects for 2023. A discussant from the Department of Finance indicated that the Administration aims at reducing the fiscal deficit from 8.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2021 (the result of the COVID pandemic) to 3 percent by 2028. She referred to this reduction as “solid fiscal management” that “will promote long-term growth". This article argues that this is a dubious target because the government cannot control the deficit. Moreover, claiming that this reduction will promote long-term growth is poor economics. So is the idea …

Annual Growth Of 6.5-8% Until 2028: How?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

THE KEY outcomes of President Bongbong Marcos’ Philippine Development Plan 2023–2028—to increase income per capita, reduce poverty, and create employment—rest on a necessary condition: to attain a 6.5-8% annual growth rate through 2023 to 2028. If achieved, the Philippines would resemble its East Asian neighbors, which attained similarly high growth rates decades ago. This is much needed given the still low wages and per capita income of the country. Yet, this “target” poses several questions.

Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.

Economic Freedom And One-Way Truck Rental Prices: An Empirical Note, Alexander Cardazzi, Robert A. Lawson

Economics Faculty Publications

This study examines the one-way truck rental prices for 378 cities. There are large price differentials in one-way rental prices between city pairs. The pull of people toward higher economic freedom locales and push away from lower economic freedom locales is found to be an important determinant of the city-pair price differentials.

Is Democracy Good For Growth? | Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.