Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

David Hume On Monetary Policy: A Retrospective Approach, Maria Pia Paganelli

Maria Pia Paganelli

Monetary policy is a modern idea of which David Hume is generally considered a precursor. Moreover, thanks to Milton Friedman and Robert Lucas, he is often presented as one of the first and most illustrious endorser of monetarism. This paper argues against this view, and in agreement with Joseph Schumpeter, that Hume’s contribution to economics, while not insignificant, cannot claim any real novelties. It offers an interpretation of Hume as a descendant of a pre-modern understanding of money rather than a forerunner of modern monetary ideas, and as a scholar exposing common ideas of his time rather than a prophet …

Firms' Entry, Monetary Policy And The International Business Cycle, Lilia Cavallari

Lilia Cavallari

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the data while at the same time providing positive international comovements. Simulations show that the presence of imported investment goods is essential for replicating these facts. Keywords: firm entry, international business cycle, international comovements, comovement puzzles, Taylor rule, firm markups. JEL codes: E31; E32; E52

U.S. Monetary Policy: Qe3, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

The Federal Reserve’s latest round of quantitative easing (QE3) is not likely to help the U.S. economy’s recovery, which is already underway, but increases the risks of new asset bubbles and inflation.

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

Monetary Policy Games, Instability And Incomplete Information, Somnath Sen Professor

Somnath Sen

Abstract: Central banks, in executing monetary policy, while pursuing traditional objectives, such as the control of inflation, may try also to promote financial stability. In this paper, we explore a simple monetary policy game played between the central bank and the financial sector. The central bank can be of two types, one traditional and the other concerned with controlling the financial markets; however, the financial sector is unsure which, due to incomplete information. The conclusion of the paper is that for small shocks to inflation there is a pooling equilibrium, whereas for larger shocks there is separation. In the latter …

Exports And Foreign Direct Investments In An Endogenous-Entry Model, Lilia Cavallari

Lilia Cavallari

Drawing on a tractable DSGE model with nominal rigidity, this paper studies the implications of firms’ entry in domestic and foreign markets for the international business cycle. The paper shows that the decision to enter a new market as well as the choice whether to invest at home or abroad depend on global monetary and productivity conditions. I find that a domestic monetary expansion might favor or deter start-up investments, depending on whether the potential entrant is a national or a multinational firm. Moreover, a structural policy change, as an increase in the degree of monetary stabilization, has a positive …

La Política Monetaria Y Su Impacto Sobre Los Retornos Reales Del Mercado Bursátil Chileno, Jorge Muñoz, Claudio Recabal, Andres Acuña

Andrés A. Acuña

Role Of The Central Bank Of Iraq In Implimenting Monetary Policy, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

Outlines the monetary policy regime in place in the Central Bank of Iraq and its operation following the replacement of the Baathist government in 2003

Monetary Policy Issues In Post Conflict Economies, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

Post conflict environments differ considerably depending on the factors that started and brought conflict to an end, the extent of damage to infrastructure and institutions, and the nature of post conflict governance. Many post conflict countries suffer from ethnic and/or religious divisions and animosities deepened by civil war (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq). Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, all post conflict territories that have received assistance with their reconstruction from international financial institutions have sought to establish or reestablish market based economies to varying degrees. Most had relatively highly centralized economies prior to the conflict. Thus reestablishment …

Basel Accord And Financial Intermediation: The Impact Of Policy, Martin Berka, Christian Zimmermann

Martin Berka

This paper studies loan activity in a context where banks have to follow Basel Accord type rules and need to find financing with the households. Loan activity typically decreases when investment returns of entrepreneurs decline, and we study which type of policy could revigorate an economy in a trough. We find that active monetary policy increases loan volume even when the economy is in a good shape, while introducing active capital requirement policy can be effective as well if it implies tightening of regulation in bad times. This is performed with an heterogeneous agent economy with occupational choice, financial intermediation …

A Reappraisal Of The Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth", describing the interplay between nominal frictions and money growth. Whe the money supply growth in the presence of price inertia (due to staggered wage contracts with time discounting), the price adjustments to each successive change in the money supply are never able to work themselves out fully. In this context, temporary nominal rigidities let monetary policy have permanent real effects. Although our theory contains no money illusion, no permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our empirical analysis suggests …

Bank Lending And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Under A Revised Basel Accord, Kevin T. Jacques, David Schirm

Kevin T Jacques

No abstract provided.

Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve And Economic Policy, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call “frictional growth”, i.e. the interaction between money growth and nominal frictions. After presenting theoretical models of this phenomenon, we construct an empirical model of the Spanish economy and, in this context, we evaluate the long-run in‡ation-unemployment tradeo¤ for Spain and examine how recent policy changes have a¤ected it.

The Real Effects Of Money Growth In Dynamic General Equilibrium, Liam Graham, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

Dynamic New Keynesian models generally ignore steady state money growth. Within a standard New Keynesian framework, we show that the interaction between staggered nominal contracts and money growth leads to a long-run trade-off between output and money growth that is significant, and remains so when the contract length is endogenised. We show that the existence of the tradeoff depends crucially on a phenomenon we call employment cycling: firms’ substitution among different labor types over the course of the contract period. We discuss the plausibility of this phenomenon and show that when it is absent, money becomes super-neutral.

The Return Of The Long-Run Phillips Curve, Liam Graham, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper shows that the interaction between money growth and staggered nominal contracts gives rise to a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff.

An Anatomy Of The Phillips Curve, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

The paper examines how the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff depends on the degree to which wage-price decisions are backward- versus forward-looking. When economic agents, facing time-contingent, staggered nominal contracts, have a positive rate of time preference, the current wage and price levels depend more heavily on past variables (e.g. past wages and prices) than on future variables. Consequently, the long-run Phillips curve becomes downward-sloping and, indeed, quit flat for plausible parameter values. This paper provides an intuitive account of how this long-run Phillips curve arises.

Applied Monetary Policy And Bank Supervision By The Ecb, Mads Andenas, Lazaros E. Panourgias

Mads Andenas

Monetary policy and banking supervision are closely related and interdependent concepts. Monetary policy and central banking are not defined in such a manner in the Maastricht Treaty that it precludes the European Central Bank from taking on a wider responsibility for financial stability and the handling of banking crises. The article introduced the term 'macro-prudential supervision', explained as 'supervision with a view to safeguarding systemic stability', in a section with the heading 'Default Supervision of Central Banks'.

Credit Crunch As An Optimal Decision Of Risk-Averse Banks Under Uncertainty., Martin Berka

Martin Berka

No abstract provided.