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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore
Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data …
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set For Macroeconomists, Dean D. Croushore, Tom Stark
A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set For Macroeconomists, Dean D. Croushore, Tom Stark
Economics Faculty Publications
Economic policies are set and forecasts are made based on data that policymakers and forecasters have available to them. But such data are often revised — at times significantly. As a result, when policies and forecasts are viewed from the perspective of today's data, they may not seem sensible. Recognizing this problem, the Research Department at the Philadelphia Fed created a real-time data set so that economists today have the same data that were available to policymakers and forecasters in the past. In this article, Dean Croushore and Tom Stark tell how the data set was constructed, show how large …
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.
The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years, Dean D. Croushore
The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy.
Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?, Dean D. Croushore
Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think.