Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr

CMC Senior Theses

Using survey-based measures of future interest rate expectations from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we examine the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty, captured as the dispersion of interest rate forecasts, and fluctuations in real economic activity and core inflation. We use a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to clearly isolate the dynamic effects of shocks to monetary policy uncertainty. To further study possible a possible nonlinear relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the macroeconomic aggregates, we extract the impulse-response functions (IRF’s) estimated at each quarter in the time series, and use a …

A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont

CMC Senior Theses

Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …

A Comparative Examination Of International Carbon Trading Mechanisms, Allison Moors

CMC Senior Theses

A Comparative Examination of International Carbon Trading Mechanisms

Peer Misbehavior Effects In The Classroom, Alex Hwung

CMC Senior Theses

This paper seeks to evaluate the effects of peer misbehavior in the classroom on student learning outcomes--namely, if there is any truth behind the old saying that “one bad apple ruins the bunch”. Using experimental data, I show that there is a strong initial relationship between the level of misbehavior in a given classroom and performance on a mathematics evaluation; however, the inclusion of lagged peer achievement in the model causes most of that relationship to be absorbed away, suggesting that the bulk of peer effects stem more from the academic performance of other students than from their behavior.

Proximity To Children: A Geospatial Approach To Understanding The Relationship Between Fast Food And Schools, Andrew Atwong

CMC Senior Theses

In a time when Americans are waking up to the health consequences of consuming fast food, researchers have discovered that fast food restaurants seem to be located in greater concentrations near primary or secondary schools. While this phenomenon affects the food environments of some children and carries implications as to their short term and long term health (which has also been well researched), this paper focuses primarily on fast food restaurants that are within walking distance of schools. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to integrate geospatial, business, demographic, and food quality data, I use linear regressions to examine whether and …

How Cutting The Cost Of Using A Bank Affects Household’S Behavior Of Remittance Transfers: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Rural Malawi, Chuyuan Lu

CMC Senior Theses

Using a randomized experiment in rural Malawi, this paper finds that providing information on mobile bank buses’ services leads to a higher probability of adopting savings accounts in the treatment group. Households in the treated villages are 3.06 percentage points more likely to adopt savings accounts than households in the control group. Second, the information treatment leads to an increase of in the probability of households receiving remittances in the treated villages, as well as an increase in the amount of remittances received. In particular, the effect is strongest for households that lived at least three kilometers away from the …

An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the trading activity of a large cross section of American bank holding companies upon various sub-events associated with the introduction of Basel III. An event study methodology was applied to various sub-composite portfolios, as determined by regulatory capitalization and leverage ratios. The results suggest that statically significant abnormal negative returns occurred on the announcement to negotiate due to heightened regulatory uncertainty, especially amongst the least capitalized and highest leveraged banks. However, this effect is complemented by statically significant positive returns upon the release of the initial guidelines. Reactions to subsequent events report to be less significant.

A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett

CMC Senior Theses

I re-examine “rating shopping” and “rating catering” in the market for AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by replicating the study of Griffin and Tang (2013) using post-crisis data. I find a sharp increase in the amount of CDOs that received a single rating, suggesting that CDO underwriters were more cautious about formally soliciting multiple ratings. However, I also find a decrease in AAA rating disagreements between S&P and Moody’s, implying that issuers shopped their CDOs through informal conversations with agencies. Finally, I find investors correctly accepted tighter credit spreads for dual-rated CDOs because dual-rated CDOs experienced fewer rating downgrades …

Consumer Neuroscience: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach To Marketing Leveraging Advances In Neuroscience, Psychology And Economics, Bridget E. Blum

CMC Senior Theses

For decades, neuroscience has greatly contributed to our foundational understanding of human behavior. More recently, the findings and methods of neuroscience have been applied to study the process of decision-making in order to offer advanced insights into the neural mechanisms that influence economic and consumer choices. In this thesis, I will address how customized marketing strategies can be enriched through the integration of consumer neuroscience, an integrative field anchored in the biological, cognitive and affective mechanisms of consumer behavior. By recognizing and utilizing these multidisciplinary interdependencies, marketers can enhance their advertising and promotional mix to elicit desired neural and affective …

Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …

An Analysis Of Education Reform In Sub-Saharan Africa, Katharine Eger

CMC Senior Theses

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to fall behind other developing regions regarding educational attainment, despite recent progress in enrollment. This thesis examines a variety of external conditional factors that could contribute to a country’s relative success, in terms of years spent in school using a prediction model that compares years enrolled in secondary education as a foundation to determine over- and under-performing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

By exploring various educational policies, historical patterns, and projects executed in Rwanda, South Africa, Ghana, and Botswana, this thesis sheds light on four main challenges that can impact educational attainment: ethnic and racial tensions, an acute …

Restauración De La Diplomacia Y Sus Implicaciones: Los Próximos Pasos En Las Relaciones Entre Los Estados Unidos Y Cuba, Emily Chambard

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the implications of the recent restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba. Through historical analysis and discussion of the ‘Cuban Thaw’ beginning in 2009, it proposes certain courses of immediate and long-term action for both nations, but specifically the United States, to guarantee future collaboration and mutual gain. Its conclusions emphasize the unique nature of current circumstances, which have opened a window of opportunity never before seen in the history of US-Cuban relations. The causes are one, the succession of Fidel Castro by his brother, Raúl, who has already demonstrated more progressive policy action …

Relationships Within The Family Tree: Roots Of Recidivism, Madison Gebhard

CMC Senior Theses

This paper seeks to examine the correlation between family relations and habitual criminal activity. Building on previous research analyzing the power and influence of positive family environments on criminal behavior, I studied the effect of parent-child relationships as determinants of adult recidivism. My results corresponded with previous studies and implied a direct correlation between positive relationships and recidivism reduction. Furthermore, my findings support the research illustrating the effect of a person's family criminal history, level of education, and socioeconomic status on criminal behavior, which may ultimately have an effect on these influential ties between parents and children.

Escaping The Poverty Trap: Formal Savings And Asset Accumulation In Rural Malawi, Audrey Breitwieser

CMC Senior Theses

Formal savings accounts can be an effective device for households to accumulate assets over time and thus have more funds available to better afford an expensive one-time payment, in the form of either addressing an economic shock or paying for an important life event. I explore this relationship using a field experiment in rural Malawi conducted from 2008-2010, and find that adoption of a formal savings account has no effect on the frequency of economic shocks that a household experiences, nor does it affect how households respond to shocks. However, I find that account adoption does significantly increase the frequency …

Conditional Cash Transfers And Their Effect On Poverty, Inequality, And School Enrollment: The Case Of Mexico And Latin America, Maria Romano

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past two decades, conditional cash transfer (CCT) has become one of the most widespread approaches to social development in Latin America. Spurred in large part by the evident and immediate success of Mexico’s CCT initiative, a multitude of countries began to invest heavily in this strategy hoping to reduce poverty and inequality in the short and long run. This paper examines the relationship between CCT program breadth and poverty, inequality, and secondary school enrollment over a thirteen year span in order to determine whether or not programs with the largest coverage were the most efficient. This question is …

The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram

CMC Senior Theses

Utilizing the industry portfolio classifications that Fama and French provide in their data library, I analyze the specific effects that the 1933 Bank Holiday has on various industries. My empirical results go beyond what Silber (2009) determines to be significantly positive abnormal market returns on March 15, 1933, which is the day after the Bank Holiday and the largest ever one-day increase in the stock market. I use the CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor Model to find significant systematic risk decreases after the Bank Holiday in the Coal and Transportation industries, as well as systematic risk increases in Consumer Goods …

Paying For Performance At The Plate: An Investigation Of Variable Pay Systems In Major League Baseball, Mitchell S. Bremermann

CMC Senior Theses

Previous empirical research on variable pay systems have suggested that possible gains can come from paying for performance, but highlight the difficulty firms face in measuring performance. Using contracts signed in Major League Baseball’s free agent market, I find that over the 2010-2014 period, teams utilized variable pay schemes with players that were more productive or signaled greater risk, either in their contract terms or via overspecialization. However, not all forms of risk signaling were correlated with greater use of performance incentives, including age and proxies for injury history. These findings have significant implications for labor practices more broadly, as …

Bitcoin: Implications For The Developing World, Makari Krause

CMC Senior Theses

Bitcoin has become notorious as the first cryptocurrency to gain widespread media attention, however, despite its many benefits over the existing financial system it remains a volatile fringe currency. This thesis examines the validity of bitcoin as a currency and whether it can play a role in circumventing extractive economic and political institutions in developing countries. The analysis compares bitcoin usage to the level of financial openness, the inflation rate, and the percentage of the population with a bank account in 21 different countries. The correlation is found to be both statistically and economically significant for all of these variables, …

Compounding The Sacred And The Profane: How Economic Theory Brings New Insight To The Growth And Decline Of American Protestantism, Bretton Chad

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, economic theory and models will be used to analyze trends of religious growth and decline within the United States. These theories and models, such as Rational Choice Theory, will be applied in order to better understand and gain new insight into shifts and changes within the religious landscape of the United States. Recent trends of growth and decline within Protestantism, the most prominent Christian tradition in America, will be the focus of the investigation. As its main focus, this thesis will ultimately demonstrate that the trends of decline in the mainline Protestant tradition opposed to the trends …

The Economics Of Hosting The Olympic Games: The Miscalculation Of Cost-Benefit Analyses And Why Cities Continue To Bid, Zachary E. Mobilian

CMC Senior Theses

The Olympic Games have become one of the world’s largest and most popular sporting events. With its massive scale, the costs that come with hosting the Games are elevating to unprecedented levels, leaving host cities with massive financial debt. So why do cities continue to bid for the rights to host the Games? In this paper I will attempt to answer this question by providing an overview of the bidding process and the economic impact of the Games and I will argue that the costs of hosting the Olympics are often underestimated while the benefits are greatly overestimated. I will …

Who Will Be The First To Buy Autonomous Vehicles? An Application Of Everett Rogers’ Diffusion Of Innovations Theory, Reilly Jackson Umberger

CMC Senior Theses

Autonomous, otherwise known as self-driving, vehicles represent the future of transportation. Vehicles that drive themselves offer far reaching benefits from increased leisure and productivity for individuals to significant improvements in congestion and infrastructure for governments. The autonomous car will radically change the way we look at transportation, and they are right around the corner. However, the question remains: are we ready? Are we, as a society, ready to hand over the steering the wheel and trust autonomous vehicles with our safety? This paper predicts how the autonomous car will spread through society by analyzing and applying the product qualities and …

Craft Beer Expansion In The United States, Alex J. Herrera

CMC Senior Theses

For centuries the world’s biggest breweries, including Anheuser-Busch InBev and MillerCoors, have been producing America’s favorite beers like Budweiser and Coors Light. However, more recently smaller, craft breweries have seen significant expansion as a growing number of Americans are drinking craft beers. How has this recent trend affected the beer market in the United States? More specifically, how has the recent success of craft breweries affected Anheuser-Busch InBev and MillerCoors? I examine the economic factors that have led to craft beer’s success in a highly competitive market, and further, how this success has impacted Anheuser-Busch InBev and MillerCoors. My study …

"And The Winner Is..." Predicting Presidential Elections, Amanda Lin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016 United States Presidential Election by analyzing two distinctive approaches: predicting election wins through voting function, and using approval ratings as proxy for votes. I examine and replicate previous models for vote share of the Democratic Party and of the government for elections from 1948 to 2012. Then, I construct a model for approval ratings based on economic and non-economic variables. My findings have direct implications for forecasting elections and the political business cycle.

"I Voted": Examining The Impact Of Compulsory Voting On Voter Turnout, Nina A. Kamath

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past few decades, falling voter turnout rates have induced governments to adopt compulsory voting laws, in order to mitigate issues such as the socioeconomic voter gap and to bring a broader spectrum of voters into the fold. This paper presents evidence that the introduction of mandatory voting laws increases voter turnout rates by 13 points within a particular country through an entity- and time-fixed effect panel model. Moreover, it includes a discussion of the implications of adopting mandatory voting policies within the United States, finding that compelling citizens to vote would have increased participation rates to over 90 …

The Drivers Of Success In The Nfl: Differences In Factors Affecting The Probability Of Winning Based On First Half Performance, Zach Alleva

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.