Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Efficient Estimation Of Average Derivatives In Npiv Models: Simulation Comparisons Of Neural Network Estimators, Jiafeng Chen, Xiaohong Chen, Elie Tamer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can be viewed as \emph{nonlinear sieves} that can approximate complex functions of high dimensional variables more effectively than linear sieves. We investigate the computational performance of various ANNs in nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) models of moderately high dimensional covariates that are relevant to empirical economics. We present two efficient procedures for estimation and inference on a weighted average derivative (WAD): an orthogonalized plug-in with optimally-weighted sieve minimum distance (OP-OSMD) procedure and a sieve efficient score (ES) procedure. Both estimators for WAD use ANN sieves to approximate the unknown NPIV function and are root-n asymptotically normal …

Lessons Learned: Lewis "Lee" Sachs, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Lewis “Lee” Sachs was counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and head of the Obama administration’s Financial Crisis Response Team in the US Department of the Treasury. Mr. Sachs led the development and coordination of the Obama administration’s Financial Stability Plan to stabilize the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). He was tasked with continued coordination with the outgoing Bush administration, as well as putting together a team to develop further restructuring plans and oversee their execution. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Sachs.

Lessons Learned: William Nelson, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

William Nelson was deputy director, Division of Monetary Affairs, at the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). As the nation’s central bank, chief financial regulator, and lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve Board took the lead in setting monetary policy and stabilizing the financial system during the crisis.

Nelson’s responsibilities at the Fed during the crisis included analysis of monetary policy and discount window policy as well as financial institution supervision, and he regularly briefed the board and the Federal Open Market Committee. He developed special expertise in designing liquidity facilities and was a …

Lessons Learned: Timothy Massad, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Timothy Massad was assistant secretary for financial stability at the US Department of the Treasury between 2009 and 2014. He oversaw the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), which was passed by Congress in October 2008 to enable the Treasury to buy assets of and invest in banks and companies to stem the financial crisis. Massad was involved in the implementation of TARP as well as its winding down; it ultimately invested $439 billion. This “Lessons Learned” is based on a phone interview with Mr. Massad.

Lessons Learned: Andreas Lehnert, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andreas Lehnert was chief of the Federal Reserve’s Household and Real Estate Finance Section at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC) and played a key role in implementing the Fed’s research and policy agenda on financial stability. He developed and helped run the Fed’s first regulatory bank stress tests in 2009, and in 2010 played a role in launching the Office of Financial Stability Policy and Research, which became the Division of Financial Stability. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Lehnert.

Lessons Learned: Jenni Lecompte, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Jenni LeCompte was deputy assistant secretary in charge of public affairs operations at the Treasury Department during the Global Financial Crisis and later became assistant secretary, public affairs. She coordinated communications, served as a spokesperson, and advised Secretary Timothy Geithner during the crisis. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Ms. LeCompte.

Lessons Learned: Jason Furman, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Jason Furman was a top economic adviser to the successful presidential campaign of Barack Obama in 2008. He played a key role in most of President Obama’s major economic policies during and in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09. Furman, who had served at both the Council of Economic Advisers and National Economic Council during the Clinton administration, served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from August 2013 to January 2017, acting as President Obama’s chief economist and a member of the cabinet. He is currently Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at the …

The Effect Of A Financial Crisis On Household Finances: A Case Study Of Iceland’S Financial Crisis, Axel Hall, Andri S. Scheving, Gylfi Zoega

Journal of Financial Crises

Iceland experienced a financial crisis in 2008–2009 when its banking system collapsed, the currency lost half its value, most businesses became technically insolvent, house prices fell, and household debt increased due to indexation to foreign currencies or the price level. This paper tells the story of the crisis and maps the losses to households using a dataset from tax returns that includes all taxpayers in the country and contains the value of housing, mortgage debt, disposable income, and net worth. For relative losses in net worth, the results show that families with children, especially those with parents aged between 24 …

A Game-Theoretic Analysis Of Childhood Vaccination Behavior: Nash Versus Kant, Philippe De Donder, Humberto Llavador, Stefan Penczynski, John E. Roemer, Roberto Vélez

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Whether or not to vaccinate one’s child is a decision that a parent may approach in several ways. The vaccination game, in which parents must choose whether to vaccinate a child against a disease, is one with positive externalities (herd immunity). In some societies, not vaccinating is an increasingly prevalent behavior, due to deleterious side effects that parents believe may accompany vaccination. The standard game-theoretic approach assumes that parents make decisions according to the Nash behavioral protocol, which is individualistic and non-cooperative. Because of the positive externality that each child’s vaccination generates for others, the Nash equilibrium suffers from a …

The Us-China Trade War And Global Reallocations, Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal, Daria Taglioni

Discussion Papers

We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses, rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in the products targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt global trade growth.

Aggregate Implications Of Barriers To Female Entrepreneurship, Gaurav Chiplunkar, Pinelopi K. Goldberg

Discussion Papers

We develop a framework for quantifying barriers to labor force participation (LFP) and entrepreneurship faced by women in developing countries, and apply it to the Indian economy. We find that women face substantial barriers to LFP. The costs for expanding businesses through the hiring of workers are also substantially higher for women entrepreneurs. However, there is one area in which female entrepreneurs have an advantage: the hiring of female workers. We show that this is not driven by the sectoral composition of female employment. Consistent with this pattern, we find even without promoting female LFP, policies that boost female entrepreneurship …

The Measuring Of Assortativeness In Marriage, Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa-Dias, Costas Meghir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Measuring the extent to which assortative matching
differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of the characteristic along which sorting takes place (e.g. education) also changes for either or both sexes. Drawing from the statistics literature we define simple conditions that any index has to satisfy to provide a measure of change in sorting that is not distorted by changes in the marginal distributions of the characteristic. While our characterisation of indices of assortativeness is not complete, and hence cannot exclude the possibility of multiple indices providing contradictory results, in an empirical application to US data we …

A Structural Model Of Organizational Buying For B2b Markets: Innovation Adoption With Share Of Wallet Contracts, Navid Mojir, K. Sudhir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The paper develops the first structural model of organizational buying to study innovation diffusion in a B2B market. Our model is particularly applicable for routinized exchange relationships, whereby centralized buyers periodically evaluate and choose contracts, then downstream users or- der items on contracted terms. The model captures different utility tradeoffs for users and buyers while accounting for how buyer and user choices interact to impact user adoption/usage and buyer contracting. Further, the paper considers the dynamics induced by share of wallet (SOW) pricing contracts, commonly used in B2B markets to reward customer loyalty with discounts for buying more than a …

Incorporating Search And Sales Information In Demand Estimation, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose an approach to modeling and estimating discrete choice demand that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers then solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estimation approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data and measures of consumer search intensity. After presenting simulation studies, we consider an empirical application of air travel demand where product-level sales …

Endogenous Spatial Production Networks: Quantitative Implications For Trade & Productivity, Piyush Panigrahi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Larger Indian firms selling inputs to other firms tend to have more customers, tend to be used more intensively by their customers, and tend to have larger customers. Motivated by these regularities, I propose a novel empirical model of trade featuring endogenous formation of input-output linkages between spatially distant firms. The empirical model consists of (a) a theoretical framework that accommodates first order features of firm-to-firm network data, (b) a maximum likelihood framework for structural estimation that is uninhibited by the scale of data, and (c) a procedure for counterfactual analysis that speaks to the effects of micro- and macro- …

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study how organizational boundaries affect pricing decisions using comprehensive data from a large U.S. airline. We document that the firm’s advanced pricing algorithm, utilizing inputs from different organizational teams, is subject to multiple biases. To quantify the impacts of these biases, we estimate a structural demand model using sales and search data. We recover the demand curves the firm believes it faces using forecasting data. In counterfactuals, we show that correcting biases introduced by organizational teams individually have little impact on market outcomes, but coordinating organizational outcomes leads to higher prices/revenues and increased deadweight loss in the markets studied.

Lessons Learned: Matthew Kabaker, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

During the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, Matthew Kabaker was senior adviser to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Treasury deputy assistant secretary, capital markets. He helped design the Treasury’s policy response to the financial crisis; design and implement the Dodd-Frank financial reforms; and address housing finance reform, including reforms at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mr. Kabaker also served on the Treasury’s Financial Stability Policy Council and Housing Policy Council. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Mr. Kabaker.

Lessons Learned: William “Bill” Dudley, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

William “Bill” Dudley was the executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Markets Group from 2007–09 and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee from 2009 to 2018. In January 2010, Dudley was named the 10th president of the New York Fed, succeeding Timothy Geithner. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Mr. Dudley.

The Us Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (Scap) And Capital Assistance Program (Cap), Aidan Lawson

Journal of Financial Crises

Due to continued stress during the Global Financial Crisis, the US Treasury released a series of additional measures in February 2009 that included a mandatory stress test for major U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), backed by government capital. The stress test, known as the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP), tested the capital adequacy of the 19 U.S. BHCs that had more than $100 billion in assets. A large interagency team of regulators and other experts estimated losses and income under two hypothetical scenarios for the group of BHCs: a baseline that reflected the consensus belief about the course of the …

Us Capital Purchase Program, Aidan Lawson, Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

During the fall of 2008, the US government was faced with a financial crisis of unprecedented scope. Having already exercised the authority to put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship in September, the stage was set for the US government to intervene more broadly in strained financial markets. This intervention would ultimately come in the form of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA), which was passed on October 3, 2008. The main provision of EESA was the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, a $700 billion program initially designed to purchase troubled assets off the balance sheets …

Us Community Development Capital Initiative (Cdci), Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

The United States Department of the Treasury responded to the Global Financial Crisis with an economy-wide stimulus package called the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Within the portion of TARP’s budget dedicated to bank investments, about $570.1 million was disbursed to community development financial institutions (CDFIs)—specifically, banks and credit unions (depositories)—in a program called the Community Development Capital Initiative (CDCI). Through the CDCI, Treasury provided capital to CDFI depositories, encouraged them to lend to small businesses, and promoted other community-oriented goals. The CDFI depositories issued either preferred shares or unsecured subordinated debentures to Treasury at low (2%) interest rates for …

Us Reconstruction Finance Corporation: Preferred Stock Purchase Program, Aidan Lawson

Journal of Financial Crises

By March 1933, the early collateralized lending programs of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) had failed to prevent the recurrence of bank runs and panic in US financial markets. These conditions forced newly elected President Franklin Delano Roosevelt to call for a nationwide bank holiday from March 6 to March 9. On the final day of the holiday, a special session of Congress passed the Emergency Banking Act (EBA), which gave the RFC the power to make investments via preferred equity of distressed institutions. Under the EBA, the RFC could subscribe to and make loans on cumulative non-assessable preferred stock …

Uk Bank Recapitalisation Scheme, Alec Buchholtz

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing global credit crunch in late 2008, Her Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) announced a large economic package to provide support to the UK banking sector. As part of the package, the eight largest banks committed themselves to raising their total Tier 1 capital by £25 billion through either private fundraising or government assistance. Thus, the economic package featured a new Bank Recapitalisation Scheme to invest up to £50 billion in capital into UK banking and credit institutions that could not raise their assets in the private sector. Government capital was invested into either …

Turkey Saving Deposit Insurance Fund Bank Recapitalization (2000–2001), Natalie Leonard

Journal of Financial Crises

Throughout the 1990s, Turkey’s macroeconomy featured high and fluctuating inflation and oscillating GDP growth rates. After Turkey’s April 1999 elections, Turkey adopted a new economic program in coordination with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with three goals: fiscal adjustment, structural reform, and an exchange rate commitment. By the end of the third quarter of 2000, concerns over the pace of structural reform mounted and short-term interest rates remained high. The new Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) revealed significant corruption within several small banks taken over by the Saving Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF). In November 2000, Demirbank, a private bank …

Thailand Capital Support Facilities 1998, Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

After the floatation of the baht on July 2, 1997, the Thai economy endured a financial crisis from massive currency devaluation, exchange rate losses, and non-performing loans (NPLs). In response, the Thai government employed two types of restructuring programs: (1) the alleviation of NPLs and distressed assets, (2) the correction of financial institution insolvency and capital inadequacy. To help recapitalize private institutions with public funds, the government introduced tier-1 and tier-2 capital support facilities. The tier-1 facility aimed to attract private capital, and the tier-2 facility aimed to stimulate lending and corporate debt restructuring. Capital injections took the form of …

Sweden 1991 Bank Support Authority (Bankstödsnämnden), Natalie Leonard

Journal of Financial Crises

Sweden’s economic downturn and growing unemployment in the early 1990s led to increased uncertainty about banks’ risks. Turbulence in foreign exchange markets and speculation against the Swedish krona caused significant problems in the housing paper market. The ensuing banking crisis affected six of the seven largest Swedish banks. Loan losses peaked in 1992 at nearly SEK 80 billion while the banking sector recorded an operating loss of almost SEK 50 billion. In the fall of 1992, the government guaranteed all banks’ liabilities, took over two of the largest banks, and announced it would create the Bank Support Authority to manage …

Spain – Fondo De Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria (Frob) Capital Injections, Priya Sankar

Journal of Financial Crises

The Spanish government created the Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria (FROB), known in English as the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) in 2009 to perform temporary capital injections that facilitated the restructuring and mergers and acquisitions of struggling institutions. The FROB used preferred shares, ordinary shares, and contingent convertible bonds to recapitalize struggling Spanish credit institutions. The FROB injected a total of €54.4 billion of capital in three rounds. FROB I in 2010 injected capital to support the mergers of 25 insolvent regional savings banks, or cajas, into seven larger, more solvent banks through the subscription of convertible preferred …

Russian Bank Capital Support Program, Sean Fulmer

Journal of Financial Crises

At the start of 2014, the Russian Federation had experienced several years of decelerating growth rates as a result of weak investment, poor governance, and failed structural reforms. During 2014, the dual shocks of rapidly declining oil prices and increasingly stringent international sanctions led to significant financial instability, as Russian firms lost access to international markets and net capital outflows accelerated. As part of the response to this crisis, the Russian government unveiled a RUB 1 trillion (US $17.2 billion) bank capital support program, which it later revised down to RUB 838 billion. The program, operated by the Deposit Insurance …

Polish Fundusz Pomocy Instytucjom Kredytowym, Junko Oguri

Journal of Financial Crises

Between September and December 1925, the Second Polish Republic faced a so-called twin-crisis: the złoty, the Polish currency, collapsed, and the financial system faced bank runs and flights of deposits. On November 28, 1925, the Polish Government established Polish Fundusz Pomocy Instytucjom Kredytowym (FPIK), injecting over PLN 60 million capital through Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), a national development bank. The government-led capital injection scheme kept supporting the unstable Polish financial system during the inter-war period. Furthermore, in the 1930s, the FPIK served not only the large banks but also smaller financial institutions, and sometimes, non-financial companies. While the FPIK successfully …

Norwegian State Finance Fund (Gfc), Natalie Leonard

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008, Norway’s banking system experienced a significant liquidity squeeze. Norwegian banks had relied extensively on short-term funding from foreign funding markets and as the financial crisis evolved, foreign funding dried up. To alleviate pressure, Norwegian authorities responded with a number of emergency programs. In early 2009, the government created the State Finance Fund (SFF) to recapitalize banks. The SFF was capitalized with a NOK 50 billion ($7.07 billion) equity investment from the Finance Ministry. In total, 34 banks applied for capital injections totaling NOK 6.7 billion. By the end of 2009, six banks …