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Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2022, Michael W. Clark, James P. Ziliak, Simon Sheather

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of Kentucky’s economy as directed by the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738). The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from a discussion of Kentucky’s current economic climate to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

The report covers numerous dimensions of Kentucky’s economy including the effects of COVID-19. As the pandemic approaches its third year, COVID-19 continues to dominate the economic narrative. Many aspects of the economy have improved substantially …

Kentucky's Economic Recovery, Ashli Watts, Michael W. Clark

Kentucky Economic Update

Highlights of this first release of “Kentucky Economic Update” include:

• Kentucky’s GDP bounced back during the 3rd quarter of 2020 but was still below pre-pandemic levels.
• While employment was still down 5.2% in December compared to a year ago, Kentucky has recovered 65% of jobs lost during initial months of the pandemic.
• As of December 2020, Kentucky’s unemployment rate stood at 6%, down from 16.6% in April 2020.
• Kentucky’s labor participation rate, which was 59.6% just before the pandemic dropped to 57.5% in December 2020.

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2021, Michael W. Clark, James P. Ziliak, Simon Sheather

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of Kentucky’s economy as directed by the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738). The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from a discussion of Kentucky’s current economic climate to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

The report covers numerous dimensions of Kentucky’s economy and COVID-19’s effects are evident across many of these dimensions. The pandemic brought the longest running economic expansion to an abrupt end. By April, Kentucky’s employment declined …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2020, Michael W. Clark, William H. Hoyt, Simon Sheather, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of the Kentucky economy. The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from an economic forecast for Kentucky in 2020 to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

The Effects Of Opioids On Kentucky's Workforce, Michael W. Clark, Jenny A. Minier, Charles J. Courtemanche, Bethany L. Paris, Michael T. Childress

CBER Research Report

From the executive summary:

Opioid abuse represents a significant and growing public health issue for both the nation and Kentucky. In 2016, opioids contributed to more than 62,000 deaths nationally and 1,406 deaths in Kentucky. National studies have placed the societal costs of opioid abuse at $55.7 billion in 2007 and $78.5 billion in 2013 (Birbaum et al. (2011) and Florence et al. (2016)). These costs included increased health care expenditures, higher criminal justice costs, and lost earnings due to reduced employment and premature deaths. The While House Council of Economic Advisors (2017) estimated the societal costs of opioid abuse …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2019, Michael T. Childress, Jenny Minier, William H. Hoyt, Simon Sheather

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission as specified in the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738) to examine various aspects of the Kentucky economy. The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from an economic forecast for Kentucky in 2019 to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

Effects Of Shifts In The Local Tax Base On Economic Outlook, Shelby Buckman

Posters-at-the-Capitol Presentations

In Kentucky, local governments can impose taxes on property and income. Tax options and maximum rates are limited by the classification of the city, which is loosely based on population size. In the summer of 2017, the City of Henderson, Kentucky’s City Council passed an ordinance that lowered real estate tax rates and raised the occupational payroll tax rates. This shift is forecasted to be net neutral for city revenue, which raised the question of how changes in the local tax burden affect a Kentucky city’s long run economic outlook.

In a theoretical model, the businesses and population would move …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2018, Christopher R. Bollinger, William H. Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission as specified in the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738) to examine various aspects of the Kentucky economy. The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from an economic forecast for Kentucky in 2018 to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2017, Christopher R. Bollinger, William H. Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

No abstract provided.

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2016, Christopher R. Bollinger, William H. Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

No abstract provided.

Want A Job? Get A College Degree, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

While it is well known that a positive relationship exists between educational attainment and earnings for those who are in the labor market, an important part of how education impacts the well-being of families in Kentucky is the access to employment that it provides. In this brief, we examine the relationship between education and two measures of employment status: unemployment and labor force participation. What we find is quite striking: not only do those with higher education experience less unemployment, they are far more likely to be participating in the labor market. Education leads to better access to employment.

Education Pays Everywhere!, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

Economists and other researchers have long demonstrated the relationship between education and earnings. In this brief, we focus on the relationship between educational attainment and earnings in the state of Kentucky. Our results, in many ways, are unsurprising, as the old ad campaign said, “Education Pays.” What may be surprising is that we demonstrate that education pays not only in the big cities of Lexington and Louisville, but also in the more rural parts of the state, such as eastern Kentucky and western Kentucky.

Moving People Off Public Assistance Programs Through Education, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

Two of the largest federal transfer programs are the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Federal expenditures on SNAP exceeded $74 billion in 2014, and SSI exceeded $3 billion. While these programs provide families in distress with important support, ideally we desire that Kentucky families would not require this kind of assistance. In 2014, over 800,000 Kentuckians received SNAP assistance each month while over 190,000 received SSI. This brief examines the relationship between participation in these programs and educational attainment for Kentuckians. We find that education is highly related to participation and that those with higher …

Crime And Punishment And Education, Christopher R. Bollinger, Bethany L. Paris

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

Crime impacts the lives of Kentuckians in myriad ways. It has direct costs to victims and indirect costs through property values and business activity. Citizens and policymakers alike desire to reduce and limit crime. In this brief, we investigate the link between crime rates in Kentucky’s counties and the aggregate level of education. Perhaps surprisingly, higher education, and specifically the percent of the population with a Bachelor’s degree, is associated with lower crime. We find that increasing educational attainment in Kentucky to the U.S. levels could reduce the costs of crime by over $3 million annually.

How To Raise State Revenue Without Raising Taxes, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

A positive relationship exists between educational attainment and earnings, which has been well established in the literature through multiple studies. This, in turn, influences the revenues generated for the state of Kentucky through the personal income tax. We predict even the modest change of increasing Associate’s and Bachelor’s degree holders by 1% would increase revenue by $37 million. Kentucky loses between $300 million and $500 million in state tax revenues every year because our educational attainment is lower than the national average.

Impact Of Education On Medicaid Eligibility, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

The individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) coupled with the Medicaid expansion in Kentucky makes reducing Medicaid eligibility rates of crucial importance. This brief examines the link between education and eligibility for Medicaid for the citizens of Kentucky. In general, the relationship is nearly mechanical in that higher education leads to higher incomes. Since income is the key determining factor of Medicaid eligibility, and because of the individual mandate eligibility is mostly equivalent to participation, our estimates show that higher education reduces the likelihood that an adult will be on Medicaid or have children and family members on …

Education For Your Health!, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

The health of the people of Kentucky is of high concern for policymakers and citizens alike. Individuals want to live healthy, productive lives, while policymakers recognize that chronic illnesses cost the state in myriad ways. In this brief, we examine the link between educational attainment and health outcomes. We focus on two groups of health outcomes. The first are behavioral and include choices: tobacco use, alcohol use, obesity, and exercise. The second group are outcomes highly associated with these behaviors: heart attack, angina, stroke, and diabetes. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that these four diseases may cost Kentuckians …

The Effects Of Education Across The Kentucky Economy, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) (Gatton College, University of Kentucky) was commissioned by Kentucky’s Council for Postsecondary Education to examine the implications of education across the Kentucky economy. This study used data on Kentuckians from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The focus on Kentucky is unique, as most studies of this kind have used only national data. The results have allowed us to examine how education is related to important outcomes related …

We Saw Not Clearly Nor Understood: The Economic Background Of The Ethiopian-Eritrean War, Trace C. Lasley

Kaleidoscope

In 1991 hope reigned in Ethiopia. There was a peaceful transition of governments after a long period of civil strife. The main guerrilla movements in Ethiopia, the TPLF and the EPLF emerged from the war as brothers-in-arms ready to embark on a new era of peace and prosperity. Just seven years later, Eritrea invaded Ethiopia and a war ensued that cost 70,000 lives and did incalculable damage. This paper explores the economic relations between the two countries to show their significance in the eruption of the Ethiopian-Eritrean War.

There are three recurring themes in the recent economic history of these …

The Impact Of Education Cascading Through The Economy, Center For Business And Economic Research, Gatton College Of Business And Economics, University Of Kentucky

CBER Infographic Posters

Research confirms what common sense suggests, higher levels of education are associated with better economic outcomes like higher wages and lower unemployment. And by improving health, increasing technology use, expanding volunteerism, and reducing public assistance, higher education levels have long-lasting effects on the economy. Eighty years ago, Kentucky's per capita personal income was just over 50% of the U.S. average; today it is just over 80%. Kentucky's educational position has improved significantly over the last twenty-five years, but the state still lags the U.S. in college attainment (23% compared to 30%) and academic achievement gaps continue to mute overall educational …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2015, Christopher R. Bollinger, William H. Hoyt, David Blackwell, Michael T. Childress, James M. Sharpe

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

No abstract provided.

The Changing Nature Of Manufacturing, Christopher R. Bollinger

Issue Brief on Topics Affecting Kentucky’s Economy

No abstract provided.

50 Economic Facts And Figures About Kentucky, 2014, Center For Business And Economic Research, Gatton College Of Business And Economics, University Of Kentucky

CBER Infographic Posters

No abstract provided.

Why Are So Many Americans On Food Stamps? The Role Of The Economy, Policy, And Demographics, James P. Ziliak

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

1 in 7 Americans received assistance from SNAP in FY2012, which is a rate 141 percent higher than in FY2000, but only 59 percent higher than in FY1980. In this chapter I describe the socioeconomic and policy climate in recent decades that had bearing on SNAP participation, along with a formal empirical analysis of those determinants and detailed simulations of the relative contributions of the economy, policy, and demographics to changes in SNAP participation over time. The results suggest that SNAP is operating effectively as an automatic fiscal stabilizer—nearly 50 percent of the increase in participation from 2007-2011 is due …