Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Using Actual Betting Percentages To Analyze Sportsbook Behavior: The Canadian And Arena Football Leagues, Rodney Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach, Kristin K. Paul

Falk College Research Center

Sportsbook behavior is tested for the Canadian and Arena Football Leagues using real sportsbook betting percentages from on-line sportsbooks. The balanced book hypothesis of the traditional sportsbook models does not appear to hold for these leagues, as favorites and overs attract more than 50 percent of the betting dollars. Although there is some slight evidence toward shading the line in these directions, there is also no overwhelming evidence supporting the Levitt (2004) hypothesis, as sportsbooks do not appear to be actively pricing to maximize profits. In general, the results seem more consistent with the sportsbook pricing as a forecast, content …