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Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.
Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.
The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Kong Weng Ho
The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Kong Weng Ho
Research Collection School of Economics
The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Singapore was more severe and protracted than the global financial crisis. Singapore responded with easing of the monetary policy stance, reinforcing financial stability, helping individuals to reduce debt obligations, easing business cashflow constraints, adjusting financial regulatory and supervisory protocols to cope with immediate challenges, and enabling the financial sectors to build long-term capabilities. Fiscal responses were unprecedented with four consecutive budgets and two ministerial statements, initially focusing on immediate assistance in respect of jobs, businesses, households, and later refined to providing more sector-specific assistance as the pandemic evolved with more detailed information …
Achieving Price Stability, Hwee Kwan Chow, Taojun Xie
Achieving Price Stability, Hwee Kwan Chow, Taojun Xie
Research Collection School Of Economics
The aim of delivering medium-term price stability is the stated objective of the Monetary Authority of Singapore. To this end, the central bank adopted an unusual exchange rate–based monetary policy framework that has served the economy well over the past decades. However, the shift from the phase of catch-up growth to a mature economy raises the question of whether the current monetary policy framework needs reformulation. Moreover, as global financial integration deepens, surges in cross-border capital flows impact Singapore’s exchange rate and asset prices, which has implications for economic dynamism and inclusion. Since a large and persistent deviation of the …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results convey an upshift in growth projections of the five largest economies in aggregate accompanied by higher inflation, especially this year and to a lesser extent next year. The aggregate “Big5” median real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022 were raised to 6.7% (up in US, CN and EA but down in IN and JP) and 4.9% (all except US), respectively. The overall “Big5” median CPI inflation forecasts were nudged up to 2.6% (higher in US, IN and EA but lower in CN) and 2.4% (in US, IN and EA some), respectively, for this year and …
Monetary Policy Surprises, Stock Returns, And Financial And Liquidity Constraints, In An Exchange Rate Monetary Policy System, John M. Sequeira
Monetary Policy Surprises, Stock Returns, And Financial And Liquidity Constraints, In An Exchange Rate Monetary Policy System, John M. Sequeira
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study examines the impact of monetary policy surprises on the stock price behaviour of a small developed economy, whose monetary policy is based on the exchange rate. We find that monetary policy surprises associated with all contractionary policy levers and a neutral policy lever, have a consistently significant and negative impact on stock returns. In comparison, only monetary policy surprises associated with a downward re-centering policy lever, has a significantly positive effect on stock returns. Using a recalibrated classification system, we also find that monetary policy surprises differ across sectors of the economy. Our results show how monetary policy …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …
Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh
Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh
Research Collection School Of Economics
A New Keynesian framework with endogenous energy production is proposed to investigate the role of monetary policy in addressing disturbances in energy markets. The novelty of the model lies in the endogenous production of energy with convex costs, explicit modeling of goods with different degrees of energy-dependency and sectoral price rigidities. Our analyses prescribe the desirable monetary responses to four types of energy price shocks, highlighting the distinct characteristics of each shock and affirming the need for diverse policy considerations. We also found several points of divergence in relation to previous studies on addressing energy supply shocks. In addition, we …
Wage Subsidies As A Tool To Fight Recessions, Hian Teck Hoon
Wage Subsidies As A Tool To Fight Recessions, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since 1981, MAS has used the exchange rate as the primary tool of macroeconomic stabilisation. An exchange rate-based policy rule not only describes very well Singapore’s actual conduct of monetary policy but it has also delivered reduced volatility in inflation and output. Yet, as the quotation above suggests, during the onslaught of the contagion effects arising from the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis when Singapore’s export demand declined precipitously, threatening a rise in the unemployment rate, exchange rate adjustment did not act alone to counteract the decline in aggregate demand (AD). Instead, the committee set up by then - Prime Minister …
Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model where the coexistence of money and a higher yielding asset is endogenously obtained when no restriction is placed on the use of either object as a medium of exchange. Due to the presence of uninsurable risks, agents have, in equilibrium, di⁄erent relative valuations of the asset to money, and hence, the use of money as a means of payment is strictly preferred. This endogenous di⁄erence in the willingness of agents to use money over the asset implies that money carries a greater liquidity premium than the asset. We obtain that the asset strictly dominates money in …
Money, Bargaining, And Risk Sharing, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Money, Bargaining, And Risk Sharing, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate the dual role of money as a self-insurance device and a means of payment when perfect risk sharing is not possible, and when the two roles of money are disentangled. We use a variant of Lagos–Wright (2005) where agents face a risk in the centralized market (CM): in the decentralized market (DM) money’s main role is as a means of payment, while in the CM it is as a self-insurance device. We show that state-contingent inflation rates can improve agents’ ability to self-insure in the CM, thereby improving the terms of trade in the DM. We then characterize …
Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson
Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson
Research Collection School Of Economics
Prior to the crisis the consensus amongst central bankers in advanced economies was that price stability, in the form of low and stable price inflation, was a top priority for monetary policy and could best be achieved by targeting interest rates (usually overnight) or monetary aggregates, such as Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2). Liquidity in the banking system could be flexibly adjusted on a daily basis through open market operations to increase or decrease the monetary base which would be transmitted to the rest of the economy through financial intermediation. Financial markets would then adjust longer-term interest rates …
A Var Analysis Of Singapore's Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Hwee Kwan Chow
A Var Analysis Of Singapore's Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Singapore economy has experienced greater business cycle fluctuations in recent years, being subject to recurrent shocks from the external environment. Given the extreme openness of the economy—Singapore’s export share of GDP is approximately 180%—it is not surprising that the main cause of the increase in economic volatility is a rise in the frequency and magnitude of exogenous shocks. These include the downswing in the global electronics industry in 1996–97, the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98, the burst of the information technology bubble in 2001, and the outbreak of the SARS respiratory disease in 2003. Such a close sequence of …
How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang
How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the finite-sample accuracy and average length of pointwise confidence intervals for impulse responses in vector autoregressive models with many variables and many lags. Our results complement existing simulation evidence based on much simpler bivariate models.