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An Analysis Of The Linkage Between Inflation Rate, Foreign Debt, Unemployment And Economic Growth In Sudan, Yagoub Elryah Dr.

Yagoub Elryah (PhD)

After secession of South Sudan, Sudan economy was decline due to losing of oil revenue. The government introduced the austerity measures and fault to recover the economy. The inflation was risen, the unemployment increased among Sudanese. The aim of this article was to analyze the relationship between inflation, unemployment, external debt and economic growth in Sudan. We considered Unit root technique (Augmented Dickey – Fuller Test) to find out long run equilibrium among using time series between 1980 and 2013. We show that all two public debts and unemployment have a direct and significant influence on economic growth. It was …

Immigration And African American Wages And Employment: Critically Appraising The Empirical Evidence, Patrick Leon Mason

Patrick L. Mason

This paper critically assesses the empirical evidence on the relationship between immigration and African American employment. Studies using various methodologies and data are reviewed: natural experiments, time series, and cross-sectional studies of local labor markets and intertemporal changes in the national labor market. We find that for African Americans as a whole, immigration may have little effect on mean wages and probability of employment. However, there is some evidence that immigration may have had an adverse impact on the labor market outcomes of African Americans belonging to low education-experience groups. However, even this modest conclusion must be qualified: the literature …

Inflation And Unemployment: Is The Trade-Off Dead Or Alive In Pakistan?, Najid Ahmad, Kausar Yasmeen, Arsalan Ahmad

Najid Ahmad

The aim of this paper is to identify the relationship betweeninflation and unemployment in Pakistan perspective of Phillips curve. A time series data is used for the period of 1984- 2012. Inflation rate is taken as dependent variable while unemployment rate, exchange rate, trade (percentage of GDP) is taken as independent variables. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is used after assuring the stationary of the variables with the help of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The paper has found significant results: there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rate in Pakistan. Concept of Phillips curve holdtrue in case of …

Unemployment And Endogenous Reallocation Over The Business Cycle, Ludo Visschers, Carlos Carrillo-Tudela

Ludo Visschers

We build an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model of unemployment in heterogeneous labor markets. Facing search frictions within markets and reallocation frictions between markets, workers endogenously separate from employment and endogenously reallocate between markets, in response to changing aggregate and local conditions. Empirically, using the 1986-2008 SIPP panels, we document the occupational mobility patterns of the unemployed, finding notably that occupational change of unemployed workers is procyclical. The heterogeneous-market model yields highly volatile countercyclical unemployment, and is simultaneously consistent with procyclical reallocation, countercyclical separations and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve. Moreover, the model exhibits unemployment duration dependence, which (when …

Regional Unemployment Dynamics In Poland. A Convergence Approach, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik

Joanna Tyrowicz

In this paper we approach the regional unemployment dynamics in Poland. Using policy relevant NUTS4 level data for 1999 till 2006 we employ tools typically applied to income convergence analyses to inquire the patterns of unemployment distribution. We apply diverse analytical techniques to seek traces of convergence, including beta and sigma convergence as well as pass-through analysis.

We demonstrate that it is highly stable over time, while only weak "convergence of clubs" is supported by the data and only for the high unemployment regions. Results suggest no support in favour of beta-type convergence, i.e. convergence of levels. Even controlling for …

Nonlinear Stochastic Convergence Analysis Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Poland, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper analyzes convergence of unemployment rates in Poland at NUTS4 level by testing nonlinear convergence, applying the modified KSS-CHLL for each pair of territorial units. The results suggest that actually the convergence is a rare phenomenon and occurs only in 1916 cases out of potential over 70 000 combinations. This paper inquires what systematic reasons contribute to this phenomenon.

There are some circumstances under which unemployment convergence should be more awaited than in the others. These include sharing a higher level territorial authority, experiencing similar labour market hardship or sharing the same structural characteristics. For each of these three …

A Reappraisal Of The Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth", describing the interplay between nominal frictions and money growth. Whe the money supply growth in the presence of price inertia (due to staggered wage contracts with time discounting), the price adjustments to each successive change in the money supply are never able to work themselves out fully. In this context, temporary nominal rigidities let monetary policy have permanent real effects. Although our theory contains no money illusion, no permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our empirical analysis suggests …

Unemployment In The European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are viewed as the outcome of the interplay between labor market shocks and prolonged lagged adjustment processes. We present an empirical analysis that distinguishes between unemployment movements arising from long-run equilibrium changes and those arising from lagged intertemporal adjustments. This analysis has far-reaching policy implications. Our analysis shows that the rise in EU unemployment over the 1970s and first part of …

The Return Of The Long-Run Phillips Curve, Liam Graham, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper shows that the interaction between money growth and staggered nominal contracts gives rise to a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff.

Unemployment Scarring In High Unemployment Regions, Claudio Lupi, Patrizia Ordine

Claudio Lupi

This paper investigates the effect of individual unemployment experiences on re-employment wages. The empirical analysis is carried out on a panel of Italian individuals. The main result is that while in the northern regions the effect is similar to the one estimated for the UK, in the southern area of the country the impact is not significant. We link this result to the particular socio-economic environment in which the unemployment spells are experienced. We argue that this might be due to the fact that in a high unemployment environment individual unemployment experiences are perceived as "normal" and do not necessarily …

Policy Complementarities: The Case For Fundamental Labor Market Reform, Dennis Snower, David T. Coe

Dennis Snower

The paper analyzes complementarities among a variety of labor market policies. It shows that (a) a wide range of labor market institutions (.e.g unemployment benefits, job security legislation, and payroll taxes) have complementary effects on unemployment and thus (b) policies aimed at reforming these institutions are also complementary. These policy complementarities imply that partial labor market reform (directed at one institution, while leaving the other institutions in place) is unlikely to achieve significant reductions in unemployment. Rather labor market reform becomes particularly effective only once a broad range of institutional rigidities are dismantled simultaneously and the distributional objectives of the …

Expanding The Welfare System, Michael J. Orszag, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

The proposal involves the establishment of “welfare accounts” for every person in a country. There are to be four accounts: a retirement account (covering pensions), an unemployment account (covering unemployment support), a human capital account (covering education and training), and a health account (covering insurance against sickness and disability). Instead of the current welfare state systems - where welfare services are financed predominantly out of general taxes - people would make ongoing, mandatory contributions to each of these welfare accounts. The balances in these accounts would cover people’s major welfare needs. The government is to set mandatory minimum contribution rates …

Analysis Of Us Real Gnp And Unemployment Relations, Riccardo Fiorito, Masanao Aoki

riccardo fiorito

Instead of the more common unemployment rate, the time series data of the US unemployment level is used with real GNP and money stock too. The commonly perceived Okun's Law disappears when moving from the bivariate model to the trivariate model including also money.