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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Trade Margins And Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence From A Panel Varx, Lilia Cavallari, Stefano Daddona
Trade Margins And Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence From A Panel Varx, Lilia Cavallari, Stefano Daddona
Lilia Cavallari
This paper studies output and trade margin dynamics in the aftermath of external shocks in fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Using a panel VARX model, it traces the mean responses of output, terms of trade, extensive and intensive margins to real and nominal shocks in 22 developed economies over the period 1988-2011. It clarifies the role of trade margins for the transmission of shocks. A business cycle expansion abroad implies positive output spillovers through the trade channel in any exchange rate regime. Yet in the sample of peggers, there is a switch from trade of previously traded goods towards …
Business Cycle Determinants Of Us Foreign Direct Investments, Lilia Cavallari, Stefano D'Addona
Business Cycle Determinants Of Us Foreign Direct Investments, Lilia Cavallari, Stefano D'Addona
Lilia Cavallari
This article investigates the role of output fluctuations and exchange rate volatility in driving US FDIs. Using a sample of 46 economies over the period 1982 to 2009, we provide the evidence of a positive relation between US FDI and host country’s cyclical conditions. Allowing for asymmetry over the business cycle, we find that the output elasticity of foreign investments is higher in booms than in recessions. An increase in exchange rate volatility, on the other hand, has a strong deterrent effect on US foreign investments. This effect is fairly stable over the business cycle.
A Note On Firm Entry, Markups And The Business Cycle, Lilia Cavallari
A Note On Firm Entry, Markups And The Business Cycle, Lilia Cavallari
Lilia Cavallari
This paper proposes a monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the difficulties of real business cycle models in reproducing the smoothness and persistence of macroeconomic variables together with the volatility of profits and markups. Simulations show that my baseline model matches the unconditional moments of consumption, output, hours, markups and profits in US data fairly well. In addition, it implies a positive e¤ect of a monetary expansion on business formation as in the data. Allowing for differences in the composition of the investment and the consumption baskets is essential for these results.
Wage Bargaining Under An Employment Target, Lilia Cavallari
Wage Bargaining Under An Employment Target, Lilia Cavallari
Lilia Cavallari
This short paper introduces an employment target for trade unions in a model of strategic wage bargaining à la Lippi (2003). It shows that the first best equilibrium can be replicated if and only if the employment target is higher than the competitive level.