Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, …

Monetary Policy And Systemic Risk-Taking In The Euro Area Banking Sector, Alain Kabundi, Francisco Nadal-De Simone

WCBT Faculty Publications

Available empirical evidence on the significance of the (micro) risk-taking channel of monetary policy is not enough to indicate a threat to financial stability. Evidence of risk-taking with systemic risk implications is necessary. Statistical measures that capture systemic risk in all its forms within a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive model suggest that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have resulted in systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector. Systemic risk has taken the form of an increase in the banking sector’s vulnerability via contagion and interconnectedness. Banks’ balance sheets, however, do not account for the full transmission from (micro) risk …

Market Risk And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Carolyne Cebrian Soper

WCBT Faculty Publications

We examine interactions between market risk and market-implied inflation expectations. We argue that these interactions are asymmetric and varied in time. Specifically, market risk becomes elevated by expectations of either very low or high expected inflation. Market risk does not react to expectations of moderate, stable inflation. In our analysis, market risk is proxied by VIX and market-implied inflation expectations are reflected by five- and ten-year breakeven inflation. We use daily data for 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation and VIX for the sample period January 3, 2003 – January 24, 2019 for empirical testing. We employ asymptotic VAR, multiple …

Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low-income economy when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence from a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of conventional commercial banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the bad loan ratio in this market has dropped from 41% in 1999 to only 10% in 2012. We find that at a micro level, this dramatic improvement is associated with bank management quality and internal governance that were substantially enhanced during a decade of large-scale regulatory reforms. The …

Wavering Interactions Between Commodity Futures Prices And Us Dollar Exchange Rates, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Monika Sywak

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper examines the intricate impact of commodity futures settlement prices on USD exchange rates. The daily data on changes in logs of futures prices and changes in logs of US dollar in euro and USD trade weighted exchange rate are tested with Bayesian VAR, multiple breakpoint regression and two-state Markov switching. Commodities include West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, as well as copper and gold. The tests imply prevalence of an inverse relationship between changes in commodity futures prices and USD exchange rates, but their interactions become positive at stressful market conditions. Strengths, statistical significance and causal interactions …

Sunshine, Fertility And Racial Disparities, Karen Smith Conway, Jennifer Trudeau

WCBT Faculty Publications

This research investigates the effect of sun exposure on fertility, with a special focus on how its effects and consequences for birth outcomes may differ by race. Sun exposure is a key mechanism for obtaining Vitamin D, but this process is inhibited by skin pigmentation. Vitamin D has been linked to male and female fertility and risk of miscarriage, and Vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent among blacks than whites. Using 1989–2004 individual live births data from the Natality Detail Files, county-level, monthly conceptions are estimated as a function of monthly solar insolation, temperature and humidity, as well as month, …

Does The Legal System Affect The Cost Of External Financing? Evidence From Ipo Underpricing Of Foreign Firms Listed In U.S. Stock Markets, Shaokang Wang, Jing Jiang

WCBT Faculty Publications

To study the effect of the legal system on the cost of external financing, we examine the degree of underpricing of the IPOs by foreign companies listed in U.S. We find that firms from highly corrupted countries have larger IPO underpricing. The quality of the home-country public law enforcement reduces the degree of IPO underpricing. In particular, the criminal sanction for violations of securities laws is the most significant factor in reducing underpricing. The evidence shows that even when a non-U.S. firm meets sophisticated U.S. regulations and goes public in a U.S. exchange, the degree of underpricing is still influenced …

Volatility Of Commodity Futures Prices And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study examines intricate interplay between crude oil, copper and gold futures prices, and market-implied inflation expectations that are proxied by the breakeven inflation derived from the 5-year US Treasury Note yields. We perform the Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint tests, Bayesian VAR with impulse response functions and GARCH with GED parameterization tests on daily data for the sample period January 3, 2003 – March 26, 2015. The results show a strong causal impact of shocks in the breakeven inflation on West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil as well as copper futures prices, albeit to varied degrees during the examined sample …

The Effectiveness And Effects Of Alcohol Regulation: Evidence From India, Dara Lee Luca, Emily Owens, Gunjan Sharma

WCBT Faculty Publications

We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effects of alcohol regulation on alcohol consumption and associated public health outcomes using detailed individual level and aggregate data from India, where state level laws generate substantial variation in the availability of commercially produced alcohol across people of different ages. We find that despite significant law evasion, men who are legally allowed to drink are substantially more likely to consume alcohol. Further, men who are legally allowed to drink are significantly more likely to commit violence against their partners, suggesting a causal channel between alcohol consumption and domestic violence. We also examine the effects …

Monetary Expansion And Bank Credit: A Lack Of Spark, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the Federal Reserve monetary expansion over thepast 15 years on the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. To do so, we analyze the allocation of the Fed vast liquidity injections by the U.S. banks. The underlying hypothesis is that the considerable monetary expansion neutralized the bank credit expansion as banks channeled borrowed liquidity into other assets.

The monetary expansion was propelled by the financial crisis of 2007–2008. The crisis led to the rapid deterioration of asset performance and liquidity of the banking system. Among the key factors contributing to the crisis was …

Integration Of Central And Eastern European And The Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions From The Global Financial Crisis, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Anna Tsibulina

WCBT Faculty Publications

We examine integration of financial markets and banking sectors in Central and Eastern Europe and the euro area. We study co-movements between government bond and equity markets of Germany and those of Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, as well as Slovenia and Slovakia (the two recent euro members). We assume that financial integration is essential for subsequent monetary convergence, as it will enable the euro candidates to mitigate systemic risk and avert potentially destabilizing shocks. Government bond yields of the Czech Republic and Poland show high correlation with German yields, in contrast to those of the remaining countries. Equity returns of …

Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low income country when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence of a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of domestic banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the share of nonperforming loans in this market has dropped six fold, from above 41% in 1999 to below 7% in 2010. Notably, this dramatic improvement did not involve the creation of any centralized asset management facilities but relied on the bank management and governance reforms. We find that …

A Theory Of Vertical Political Interaction In Cigarette Taxation, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper examines the political interdependence of federal and state cigarette tax rates. We develop a lobby group model where a state’s endogenous reaction to a federal cigarette tax hike depends crucially on the political responses of the cigarette producer and anti-smoking lobby groups.

Extreme Risks In Financial Markets And Monetary Policies Of The Euro-Candidates, Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study investigates extreme tail risks in financial markets of the euro-candidate countries and their implications for monetary policies. Our empirical tests show the prevalence of extreme risks in the conditional volatility series of selected financial variables, that is, interbank rates, equity market indexes and exchange rates. We argue that excessive instability of key target and instrument variables should be mitigated by monetary policies. Central banks in these countries will be well-advised to use both standard and unorthodox (discretionary) tools of monetary policy while steering their economies out of the financial crisis and through the euro-convergence process.

Introduction To The Symposium On 'Financial Risks And Economic Stability In Emerging Market Economies', Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

Developing resilience to contagion effects from global financial crises and economic recessions has been an ongoing crucial task for policymakers in emerging market economies. The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has underscored the importance of pursuing disciplined macroeconomic policies and of devising sound macroprudential regulations that would strengthen the immunity of emerging markets and their institutions to various types of risks, including credit, default, sovereign, liquidity and market risks. The studies included in this symposium are not intended to provide a comprehensive overview of financial vulnerabilities in a broad spectrum of emerging markets. Rather, they share a common aim …

First Price Auctions, Lotteries, And Risk Preferences Across Institutions, Russell P. Engel

WCBT Faculty Publications

There is an unsettled debate in experimental economics literature regarding the consistency of individuals' risk preferences in varying institutions. Much of this debate stems from observations of subjects' bids in sealed-bid auctions and the implications of those bids. In this paper, I have subjects participate in a sealed-bid auction experiment and then examine if the ostensible risk parameter that one can back out from subjects' bids matches up with their elicited risk preference from a separate task in the experiment. I find that subjects do exhibit consistent risk preferences. The aggregate measure of the subjects' risk parameter is stable across …

Workers' Migration And Remittances In Bangladesh, Khawaja Mamun, Hiranya K. Nath

WCBT Faculty Publications

Bangladesh has sent more than 6.7 million workers to over 140 countries during a period of more than three decades since the mid-1970s. Most of these workers temporarily migrated to work in Middle East and Southeast Asia. This mass movement of temporary migrant workers has, to some extent, eased unemployment pressures on the over-burdened labor market in this highly populated country. More importantly, the remittance transfers received from these migrant workers have reached a phenomenal level of over 10 billion US dollars in 2009, approximately 12 percent of GDP in Bangladesh. This paper analyzes the trends and various other aspects …

Proliferation Of Tail Risks And Policy Responses In The Eu Financial Markets, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study draws attention to the proliferation of tail risks in financial markets prior to and during the course of the recent global financial crisis. It examines the level of tail risks in selected equity, interbank lending and foreign exchange markets in selected EU Member States in relation to the United States. The extent of tail risks is assessed by applying general error distribution (GED) parameterization in GARCH volatility tests of the examined variables. The empirical tests prove that tail risks were pronounced across all of the examined European financial markets throughout the crisis. They were also significant prior to …

Path To Financial Inclusion: The Success Of Self-Help Groups-Bank Linkage Program In India, Sivakumar Venkataramany, Balbir B. Bhasin

WCBT Faculty Publications

Financial inclusion has been a major theme in both industrialized and developing economies in the era of financial globalization. When microcredit institutions have received limited success in many countries, microfinance is being used in India for the purpose of accomplishing universal financial inclusion. This paper recognizes the overwhelming efforts of the Government of India and focuses on the success of the linkage between commercial banks and self-help groups (SHGs). The SHGs comprising predominantly women groups help in the social cause of alleviation of poverty, increase of sustainability, reduction of vulnerability, improvement of capacity building and help the weaker sections build …

The Impact Of Terrorism On Business, Michael D. Larobina, Richard L. Pate

WCBT Faculty Publications

Terrorism has in one form or another been a part of society throughout history. Since the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York, the world community has been more focused on terrorism than ever before in most recent modern history. Terrorism has impacted multiple levels of society across the world community. One of those levels is the business environment. A specific aim of terrorism is to disrupt and destroy ongoing businesses. Therefore, the ability of governments to disrupt and destroy terrorism is essential to the continued growth and expansion of the world economy. Terrorism will directly impact a country's ability …

Relative Inflation-Forecast As Monetary Policy Target For Convergence To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

A monetary policy framework based on targeting a relative inflation-forecast is proposed for the economies converging to the euro. Such strategy aims at containing the differentials between the domestic and the implicit monetary union inflation-forecasts. Hence, these differentials become a basis for setting an operational policy target. The proposed framework can be viewed as an extension of flexible inflation targeting that prioritizes low and stable inflation over the exchange rate stability. It is believed to be consistent with the Maastricht convergence criteria and can be implemented in concurrence with the exchange rate stability benchmark for the ERM2. Several empirical tests …

Stages Of The Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There A Wandering Asset Bubble?, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study argues that the severity of the current global financial crisis is strongly influenced by changeable allocations of the global savings. This process is named a “wandering asset bubble”. Since its original outbreak induced by the demise of the subprime mortgage market and the mortgage-backed securities in the U.S., this crisis has reverberated across other credit areas, structured financial products and global financial institutions. Four distinctive stages of the crisis are identified: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, spillovers into broader credit market, the liquidity crisis epitomized by the fallout of Bear Sterns with some contagion effects on …

Institutional Issues Impeding Progress Of The Free Trade Area Of The Americas Agreement (Ftaa), Sivakumar Venkataramany, Balbir B. Bhasin

WCBT Faculty Publications

For any bilateral or multilateral trade agreement to be effective, it is imperative that all participants derive maximum benefit. This paper examines the institutional issues facing the partners of the Free Trade of the Area of the Americas (FTAA), analyzes some of the current areas of conflict and suggests action to reduce tensions and promote harmony, cooperation and accommodation which is a necessity when multiple countries attempt to foster such an agreement.

American Index Put Options Early Exercise Premium Estimation, Ako Doffou

WCBT Faculty Publications

"This paper examines empirically the value of early exercise by testing the ability of two American put valuation models to predict the early exercise premium for the S&P 100 American put options. An accuracy test and a quality test are performed on (1) the MacMillan (1986) & Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) model, and (2) the Carr, Jarrow and Myneni(1992) model. The test results show that early exercise premium is significant regardless of moneyness. Moreover, consistent with the theory, the value of early exercise is significantly negatively related to moneyness and interest rates and significantly positively related to time to maturity …

Essays On Risk And Incentives, Russell Engel

WCBT Faculty Publications

I use economic experiments to investigate individual behavior under uncertainty. The first essay examines the consistency of risk preferences over two institutions. The two institutions I use are the first price sealed bid auction and a Holt-Laury lottery. There is some controversy as to whether or not observed overbidding in first price auction is actually caused by risk aversion or simply consistent with it. Behavior in the Holt-Laury lottery being caused by risk aversion is not in dispute. By having the same subjects participate in both institutions, I show that subjects.risk preferences in the lottery are consistent with subjects' risk …

Fostering Entrepreneurship: Developing A Risk-Taking Culture In Singapore, Balbir B. Bhasin

WCBT Faculty Publications

About 10 years ago the Singapore Government realized that entrepreneurial spirit was lacking in its general population. These conclusions were confirmed by an empirical survey, the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), an annual assessment of the national level of entrepreneurial activity. The paternalistic and authoritative approach of the government contributed to the general population's averseness to participating in risk-oriented ventures. Removing impediments to entrepreneurship is a key challenge for the government and the business sector if the island republic is to maintain its national competitiveness. This article explores the various initiatives taken by the government to stimulate risk-taking and attempts to …

Monetary Policy And Inflation In The European Monetary Union – Perspectives And Lessons, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

The paper examines systemic changes in monetary policies in Europe that have played a pivotal role in containing inflation. It emphasizes the connection between the systemic evolution of monetary policies and the precepts of the original as well as the new generation policy models prescribed by the ‘Washington Consensus’. It further underscores the importance of key criteria of optimum currency area (labor mobility, trade openness, symmetric consumer preferences and political integration) for viability and further future enlargement of the euro area. For the candidates to the euro flexible inflation targeting policies that encompass the euro-convergence parameters are suggested.

Reflections On A Seminal Force In International Accounting, Karen Cascini

WCBT Faculty Publications

Accounting is a manifestation of several important environmental factors within a country, including economic, educational and political, and, as such, is evolutionary in accordance with those changing social structures. In today‟s ever expanding global economy, the understanding of international aspects of accounting is critical to understanding world events and the way in which they affect our lives. As new nations and new economic powers emerge, continually updated information, including accounting information, is an essential resource for linking an internal accounting system with worldwide systems. Because of the major impact that international accounting has had on countries‟ internal accounting systems, it …

Monetary And Fiscal Policy In Poland During The Eu Accession, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

The main objective of this chapter is to review the fiscal and monetary policies of Poland for EU accession and to extract their guiding precepts. Only the most essential aspects of fiscal and monetary convergence are examined, with some attention to institutional convergence. An in-depth analysis of institutional convergence falls beyond the boundaries of this study, as its main focus is on the systemic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization policies during the economic transition and in the course of preparations for EU accession. The chapter also examines policy options for the post-accession macroeconomic policy strategy which will focus on preparations for …

Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper investigates empirically the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Asian emerging stock markets using the Enders-Siklos (2001) momentum threshold autoregressive model. As explained in Bohl (2003), this non-linear time series technique can be used to analyze bubble driven run-ups in stock prices followed by a crash in a non- cointegration framework with asymmetric adjustment. This technique offers a more potent insight in the stock prices behavior than can possibly be obtained using conventional non-cointegration tests. The empirical findings for ten Asian emerging stock markets from 1993 to 2005 refute the bubble hypothesis.