Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Forecasting The New York State Economy With “Terraced” Vars And Coincident Indices, Eric Doviak, Sean P. Macdonald

Publications and Research

This paper introduces “Terraced” Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling, which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts. In an application of our Terraced VAR framework, we have estimated coincident indices of economic activity for the United States, New York State and the six largest metropolitan areas of New York State and incorporated them into Terraced VARs, which forecast the unemployment rate, total non-farm employment, real wages and average hours worked in manufacturing in those regions.

Negative Effects Of Paternal Age On Children's Neurocognitive Outcomes Can Be Explained By Maternal Education And Number Of Siblings, Ryan D. Edwards, Jennifer Roff

Publications and Research

Background Recent findings suggest advanced paternal age may be associated with impaired child outcomes, in particular, neurocognitive skills. Such patterns are worrisome given relatively universal trends in advanced countries toward delayed nuptiality and fertility. But nature and nurture are both important for child outcomes, and it is important to control for both when drawing inferences about either pathway.

Methods and Findings We examined cross-sectional patterns in six developmental outcome measures among children in the U.S. Collaborative Perinatal Project (n=31,346). Many of these outcomes at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y of age (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart …

Labor Force And Economic Changes In Cuba, Pavel Vidal Alejandro, Omar Everleny Perez Villanueva, Mario A. Gonzalez-Corzo

Publications and Research

In November 2010, the Cuban government published a 32-page document called “Lineamientos De La Política Económica y Social” [“Guidelines of Economic and Social Policies], which outlines the economic transformations approved in the Sixth Communist Party Congress last April 2011. The guidelines presented in this document expand the economic changes initiated by Raúl Castro in 2008. One of the major changes that already began is the transfer of State workers to the (emerging) private sector. This is the most transformative labor oriented economic adjustment implemented in Cuba so far and is a clear indicator of Cuba’s movement towards a …

Three Essays On The Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi), Haitao Liang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

At first, a literature review of over 150 articles on the determination of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) proposes the main determinants of FDI. A meta-analysis tests the reliability of the previous studies on FDI.

Then, a cluster analysis on FDI data reveals the necessary to segment economies, especially by income level, in FDI analysis.

A large number of studies emphasize FDI determinants but ignore the income distribution on the results, which biases the estimates. In Chapter 3, I correct for heterogeneity due to income distribution by using the Blundell-Bond System GMM (Generalized Method of Moments), which controls for endogeneity problem …

Railroads And Economies Of Scale And Scope In U.S. Manufacturing Industries: 1850-1880. Chandler Revisited, Michael Kalson

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This study concerns the measurement and quantification of the relationship between railroadization in the United States in the mid-19^th century and the subsequent evolution of the modern, large-scale, corporate form of industrial business organization marked by significant economies of scale and scope, as described in various writings by Alfred Chandler. Focusing on American industry as it developed from 1850-1880 using data uniquely suited to empirical analysis of economies of scale and scope, its aim is to determine whether the growth of the American railroad network, as Chandler contended, expanded markets and augmented the American financial sector such that the …

Essays In Corporate Finance, Milos Vulanovic

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two essays on corporate finance. In the first essay we test the pecking order theory by examining how firms finance maturing long-term debt. This allows us to accomplish three goals: resolve the issues of debt capacity and the endogeneity of financing deficit; examine the role of internal financing; and generate evidence regarding the order in which different sources of financing are used. We determine that firms use internal funds before they issue new debt to refinance maturing long-term debt. Firms with more cash on hand are less likely to issue new debt to refinance. On average, …

Default Risk, Zeynep Topaloglu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The hazard rate models used in recent bankruptcy literature assume censoring and default are two independent events, which means the censored company will eventually default. However we believe there will be a portion in the censored group that will be long-term survivors and we propose a mixture model of survivors and risky companies. Moreover this dissertation models the event and the timing of default incident at the same time. For the event of default and the timing of default we utilize a logistic regression. The results have justified the advantage of our model over the standard hazard rate models and …

Essays On Economic Policy: Income Inequality And Health Insurance, Eric Doviak

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation contains economic analyses of two critical social issues facing the United States at the dawn of the 21st century: income inequality and the affordability of health insurance.

The chapter on income inequality uses the Solow Model of economic growth to model the evolution of inequality over time. In steady state, differences in household saving rates generate differences in household capital income. Households that save more accumulate more capital and have higher steady-state income. Tax policy affects the distribution of income through its influence on household saving rates. Increasing the tax rate on labor income causes a greater percentage …