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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
How Can Econometrics Help Fight The Covid'19 Pandemic?, Kevin Alvarez, Vladik Kreinovich
How Can Econometrics Help Fight The Covid'19 Pandemic?, Kevin Alvarez, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
The current pandemic is difficult to model -- and thus, difficult to control. In contrast to the previous epidemics whose dynamics was smooth and well described by the existing models, the statistics of the current pandemic is highly oscillating. In this paper, we show that these oscillations can be explained if we take into account the disease's long incubation period -- as a result of which our control measures are determined by outdated data, showing number of infected people two weeks ago. To better control the pandemic, we propose to use the experience of economics, where also the effect of …
Regional Household Economic Stress And Retail Sales Fluctuations, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate
Regional Household Economic Stress And Retail Sales Fluctuations, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate
Departmental Papers (E & F)
Economic stress indices are used to monitor business cycle conditions in several regions.Although the deployment of these tools is spreading, there have been relatively few efforts to empirically assess the performance of these gauges, especially at the regional level.This study takes advantage of one such index that is published monthly and has more than 15 years of historical data.Results obtained confirm an inverse relationship between household economic duress and retail sales activity, but it is not found to be statistically reliable over the long-run.Deviations from equilibrium are found to last for 142 months.More relevantly, a 1-point increase in the index …