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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …
Automatic Scoring Of Speeded Interpersonal Assessment Center Exercises Via Machine Learning: Initial Psychometric Evidence And Practical Guidelines, Louis Hickman, Christoph N. Herde, Filip Lievens, Louis Tay
Automatic Scoring Of Speeded Interpersonal Assessment Center Exercises Via Machine Learning: Initial Psychometric Evidence And Practical Guidelines, Louis Hickman, Christoph N. Herde, Filip Lievens, Louis Tay
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Assessment center (AC) exercises such as role-plays have established themselves as valuable approaches for obtaining insights into interpersonal behavior, but they are often considered the “Rolls Royce” of personnel assessment due to their high costs. The observation and rating process comprises a substantial part of these costs. In an exploratory case study, we capitalize on recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) by developing NLP-based machine learning (ML) models to investigate the possibility of automatically scoring AC exercises. First, we compared the convergent-related validity and contamination with word count of ML scores based on models that used different NLP methods …