Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Wedge Issue For The 21st Century: The Conditional Effect Of Party Identification For Predicting Feelings Towards Immigrants And Refugees In A Higher Ed Setting, Nicholas Bauroth, Kjersten Nelson

Online Journal of Rural Research & Policy

The issue of immigration played an important role in recent U.S. elections. How did the salience of immigration and refugees in the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections play out amongst young voters? Did increased opportunities to interact with immigrants and refugees affect respondents’ feelings towards these groups, as social contact theory might predict? The analyses here focus on a sample of college students, given that the higher education experience presents conditions for social contact theory to play out. We find that party identification is a key piece of the puzzle – measures of social contact theory operate differently for Democratic …

American Attitudes Toward Nuclear Energy, Eric J. Kirchman

Honors Capstones

Despite the mature underlying technology behind nuclear energy production, public support varies widely among the American public and has often changed over time. This paper seeks to analyze patterns in Americans’ attitudes towards nuclear energy using aggregate polling data from previously collected national public surveys. Standard demographics such as age, education, and political affiliation are utilized in cross-sectional comparisons against public opinion. Males, conservatives and Republicans were found to have strong positive responses towards nuclear energy. Furthermore, time-series data indicates nuclear energy fell out of favor in the early 1980s. It was later favored again in the early 2000s. This …

Space Exploration: Nasa Investment Into The Private Space Sector And Public Opinion, Brooke Ziegenhagen

Senior Theses

The space exploration industry has entered a new era with companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin leading the way to the privatization of space. This paper examines public opinion regarding the source of space exploration funding and proposes possible motivations for these sentiments. This is followed by an assessment on NASA’s investment trends into the commercial space industry. Both probes review the past decade, to reveal the public-private relationship in this new era and finally, conclude whether or not public opinion plays a role in the degree of NASA investment and what that role may be.

Development And Dynamics Of Us Welfare Policy, Liza Gordon

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

In this dissertation I analyze the development of contemporary US welfare policy with special consideration given to the importance of race and gender. In the introductory chapter I outline how the development of the American welfare state has continuously neglected the needs of women and minorities as well as how classist, racist, and sexist appeals have been prevalent throughout US history in relation to welfare policies. The remaining chapters analyze how contemporary welfare policies including the 1996 welfare reforms and state drug-testing for welfare laws carry on these American legacies. In Chapter 1 I examine how the classist, sexist, and …

To Believe Or Not To Believe: Voters’ Responses To Sexual Assault Allegations In Politics, Emily Brandes

Honors Theses

Since the viral 2017 #MeToo movement, public opinion on cases of sexual misconduct has been shaped by the mainstream media coverage of high-profile stories. A shift in public attitude towards these issues has encouraged more victims to come forward and share their stories, many detailing harrowing events perpetrated by successful businessmen and politicians. Credible accusations continue to come forward, and while some end in legal action, many do not, and perpetrators face little to no consequences. I examined how individuals respond to issues of sexual misconduct and assault in politics, and based on the severity of the accusation, how they …

Understanding Attitudes Toward Healthcare Reform: The Roles Of Self-Interest, Group Identity And Racial Resentment, Maria Beatrice Livaudais

Political Science ETDs

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) cemented itself as one of the most controversial pieces of legislation of the decade. Public opinion polls find Americans are often evenly split in support of the ACA. This dissertation explores the roles of self-interest, group identity, and racial resentment on attitudes toward the ACA and healthcare reform. The dissertation centers our attention on variation by race and the impact racial tensions beyond the Black-White paradigm on these attitudes. I find group identity shapes attitudes Blacks’ and Latinos’ attitudes toward the ACA but not Whites’ and racial resentment, directed toward Blacks, Latinos …

Judicial Elections, Public Opinion, And Their Impact On State Criminal Justice Policy, Travis N. Taylor

Theses and Dissertations--Political Science

This dissertation explores whether and how the re-election prospects faced by trial court judges in many American states influence criminal justice policy, specifically, state levels of incarceration, as well as the disparity in rates of incarceration for Whites and Blacks. Do states where trial court judges must worry about facing reelection tend to encourage judicial behavior that results in higher incarceration rates? And are levels of incarceration and racial disparities in the states influenced by the proportion of the state publics who want more punitive policies? These are clearly important questions because they speak directly to several normative and empirical …

The Party Decides, Or Does It?: An In-Depth Analysis Of The 2020 Presidential Primaries And The Democratic Party's Influence, Emma Trittin

Honors Undergraduate Theses

This paper explores the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries through the lens of Marty Cohen's The Party Decides model. The model utilizes five key indicators in helping to predict who the party will decide as the nominee: widespread voter approval, key endorsements, fundraising, media coverage, and success in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. While the model has been an indicator for almost 50 years, two of the five recent primaries have shown that the candidates are the exception to the rule. This paper will either prove whether or not the exception becomes the rule, if the rule is no …

Seeds Of Suspicion: The Perpetual Cycle Of Anti-Muslim Stereotypes, Middle East Intervention, And Terrorism, Christopher Ledford

Theses and Dissertations--Political Science

The central theory guiding my research is that interstate conflict, at least as covered in mass media, leaves residual cultural attitudes that can shape the political context in which elites formulate policy. Specifically, U.S. interventionism in the Middle East has given rise to fundamental hostilities, founded on misguided biases, that shape involvement in the region today. I focus on one step within that broader theory, to test it empirically: the hypothesis that anti-Muslim stereotypes, when activated, will shape an individual’s foreign-policy preferences. I begin by considering competing accounts that link 1) ethnocentrism or 2) targeted stereotypes with support for the …

Poison Pills: How Subtle Differences In Processes, Public Opinion, And Leadership Doomed The American Health Care Act And Passed The Affordable Care Act, Zachary Eichten

All College Thesis Program, 2016-2019

In 2009, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law. This was possible because the Democratic Party had a majority in both branches of Congress and control in the executive branch. In 2017, the American Health Care Act failed to become law, despite the fact that the Republicans controlled Congress and the presidency. What factors explain the different outcomes? Why was one able to pass, but not the other? This study presents a framework for explaining these different outcomes by exploring the impact of the legislative process, the role of public opinion, and the impact of polarization as factors …

Real Fake News: The Colbert Report And Affective Polarization, Jeffrey J. Skoroda

Senior Independent Study Theses

This Independent Study examines the relationship between political satire and affective polarization. Affective polarization is a newly growing form of political polarization wherein partisans are polarized based on mutual dislike for opposing partisans rather than ideological disagreements. Political news has been linked to this recent trend in polarization. Over the past two decades, political scientists have taken an interest in investigating the impact of political satire programs like The Daily Show and The Colbert Report through the same lens as traditional political news. These satirical news programs implement satire, a more complex form of comedy that can require more cognitive …

Terrorism: A Tool For Shaping Public Opinion, Jonathan E. Voisich

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Public Opinion matters on issues of foreign policy. This makes controlling public opinion very important for governments. In this paper I will argue that elites use terrorism both as a tool for instilling fear and by creating a certain image of groups they wish to support or destroy in order to shape public opinion. I will examine both literature on framing and public opinion data on foreign policy to show why public opinion is so important and how it can be shaped. The two case studies showing terrorism being used in these ways will be the Ronald Reagan administration’s policy …

Are Citizens “Receiving The Treatment”? Assessing A Key Link In Contextual Theories Of Public Opinion And Political Behavior, Benjamin J. Newman, Yamil R. Valez, Todd K. Hartman, Alexa Bankert

Todd K. Hartman

The theorization and empirical exploration of contextual effects is a long standing feature of public opinion and political behavior research. At present, however, there is little to no evidence that citizens actually perceive the local contextual factors theorized to influence their attitudes and behaviors. In this article, we focus on two of the most prevalent contextual factors appearing in theories—racial/ethnic and economic context—to investigate whether citizens’ perceptions of their local ethnic and economic contexts map onto variation in the actual ethnic composition and economic health of these environments. Using national survey data combined with Census data, and focusing on the …

Easing The Heavy Hand: Humanitarian Concern, Empathy, And Opinion On Immigration, Benjamin J. Newman, Todd K. Hartman, Patrick L. Lown, Stanley Feldman

Todd K. Hartman

The bulk of the opinion research on immigration identifies the factors leading to opposition to immigration among the American public. In contrast, we identify a key factor and condition under which citizens embrace more permissive and supportive positions on immigration. Past research indicates that humanitarianism is a core value orientation promoting support—albeit limited—for social welfare policy. Extending this research into another highly salient policy domain—immigration—we find that humanitarian concern serves as a significant source of support for permissive positions on government immigration policy. Relying upon secondary analysis of national survey data and an original survey experiment, we demonstrate that humanitarian …

Decreasing The Economy’S Impact On Evaluations Of The President: An Experiment On Attribution Framing, Brian Newman

Brian Newman

Decades of research has shown that economic considerations are strongly tied to evaluations of the president. Many studies have found that framing (often called priming) by news coverage, events, and presidential rhetoric can increase the weight of economic and other considerations in presidential evaluations. I use a survey experiment to show that attribution frames can decrease the weight of economic considerations on presidential evaluations. The finding holds implications for the public’s capacity to hold the president accountable and presidents’ legislative strategies.

The Impact Of Prolonged Nomination Contests On Presidential Candidate Evaluations And General Election Vote Choice: The Case Of 2008, Jeff R. Dewitt, Richard N. Engstrom

Faculty and Research Publications

The fact that political parties hold competitive nomination contests that require voters to choose among multiple candidates leaves open the possibility that the contest itself could damage the prospects of an eventual nominee. In this study, we employ the American National Election Study panel survey data from the 2008 U.S. presidential election to assess the impact of the Democratic Party nomination process on candidate evaluations and general election vote preference. We find evidence that Barack Obama had greater difficulty uniting his party than his Republican counterpart due to the fact that Clinton voters were slow to coalesce around Obama. These …

Divided Government And Foreign Relations Approval, Brian Newman, Kevin Lammert

Brian Newman

During divided government, the public tends to attribute credit and blame for economic conditions to both the president and Congress. However, the "two presidencies" thesis argues that presidents have more influence vis-a-vis Congress in shaping foreign policy compared to domestic policy, so the public may attribute all foreign policy outcomes to the president alone. This suggests that the boost presidents typically receive in their overall approval during divided government due to sharing the blame for negative economic conditions will not extend to their foreign relations approval numbers, We find that presidents do enjoy higher overall approval during divided government. However, …

The Penetration Of Social Media In Governance,Political Reforms And Building Public Perception, Ratnesh Dwivedi Mr

Ratnesh Dwivedi

Social media are media for social interaction, using highly accessible and scalable communication techniques. Social media is the use of web-based and mobile technologies to turn communication into interactive dialogue. While we know that social media can play an important role in publicizing political activities such as protests, do we have evidence that such actions have led to substantive political change? Is it possible to develop a set of indicators to more effectively gauge the impact of new technologies and media on questions of political change? That social media can help coordinate large and discrete activities, such as protests and …

Supreme Court Responsiveness: An Analysis Of Individual Justice Voting Behavior And The Role Of Public Opinion, Michael Browning

Honors Projects

This study aims to explain why the Supreme Court responds to public mood by analyzing individual justice liberalism and comparing it to public liberalism between the years of 1953 and 2005. Three theories suggesting why the Court may respond to public opinion are discussed, including the replacement, political adjustment, and the attitude change hypotheses. The argument of using Court reversals to determine the ideology of the Court is presented and implemented. Public reaction to Court decisions is analyzed along with the Court’s institutional legitimacy as means to determine the Court’s strategic behavior. Ideology, public mood, the parties controlling the House, …

Will The Real Elena Kagan Please Stand Up? Conflicting Public Images In The Supreme Court Confirmation Process, Keith J. Bybee

Institute for the Study of the Judiciary, Politics, and the Media at Syracuse University

What images of judging did the Kagan confirmation process project?

My response to this question begins with a brief overview of existing public perceptions of the Supreme Court. I argue that a large portion of the public sees the justices as impartial arbiters who can be trusted to rule fairly. At the same time, a large portion of the public also sees the justices as political actors who are wrapped up in partisan disputes. Given these prevailing public views, we should expect the Kagan confirmation process to transmit contradictory images of judicial decisionmaking, with a portrait of judging as a …

All Judges Are Political—Except When They Are Not: Acceptable Hypocrisies And The Rule Of Law, Keith J. Bybee

College of Law - Faculty Scholarship

This paper contains the introduction to the new book, All Judges Are Political—Except When They Are Not: Acceptable Hypocrisies and the Rule of Law (Stanford University Press, 2010).

The book begins with the observation that Americans are divided in their beliefs about whether courts operate on the basis of unbiased legal principle or of political interest. This division in public opinion in turn breeds suspicion that judges do not actually mean what they say, that judicial professions of impartiality are just fig leaves used to hide the pursuit of partisan purposes.

Comparing law to the practice of common courtesy, the …

The Polarized Presidency: Depth And Breadth Of Public Partisanship, Brian Newman, Emerson Siegle

Brian Newman

This essay examines the extent of partisan polarization in the public's views of the president from 1972 to 2008, extending earlier studies by placing the George W. Bush administration in historical context and exploring the depth and breadth of polarization. The authors find that the party gap in presidential approval has grown significantly over time. Moreover, more inpartisans strongly approve of the president and more outpartisans strongly disapprove. In addition, polarization has become broader as assessments of economic conditions, the president's handling of foreign relations, perceptions of the ideological difference between the president and citizens, and views of the president's …

'Rally Round The Flag’ Events For Presidential Approval Research, Brian Newman, Andrew Forcehimes

Brian Newman

Since Mueller's [Mueller, J., 1970. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review 64 (1), 18-34.] pioneering study, students of presidential approval ratings have agreed that major events affect these ratings. Despite this consensus, there is wide divergence in the ways that scholars have selected events for inclusion in models of approval ratings. This inconsistency inhibits direct comparisons across studies and raises the possibility that results are contingent on those selection criteria. Thus, what we have learned about the impact of various factors that may affect approval may depend on the details of selection criteria. Practically, scholars …

Public Evaluations Of Presidents, Brian Newman, Paul Gronke

Brian Newman

An overview of the presidential approval literature that highlights questions for future research.

Presidential Traits And Job Approval: Some Aggregate-Level Evidence., Brian Newman

Brian Newman

In a previous article in this journal, Cohen (2001) introduced time series measures of public perceptions of Bill Clinton's personal characteristics. Here, I explore the political impact of these perceptions, asking whether they affect the public's evaluations of presidential job performance. I find that they do, adding aggregate-level support to existing individual-level evidence of the importance of character assessments. Finding a connection between character perceptions and job approval in the aggregate time series context helps answer questions previous studies leave unresolved, with significant implications for our understanding of presidential approval and presidential politics more generally. [First paragraph]

Fdr To Clinton, Mueller To ?: A Field Essay On Presidential Approval, Brian Newman, Paul Gronke

Brian Newman

Since the 1930s, polling organizations have asked Americans whether they "approve or disapprove of the job [the incumbent] is doing as president." In the early 1970s, John Mueller started an academic industry by asking what drives these evaluations. American politics and the tools available to examine it have changed dramatically since then, inspiring a burst of research on presidential approval in the 1990s. We review this new body of literature, arguing that it builds on but differs importantly from earlier approval studies. Since Mueller's writing, scholars have expanded his relatively simple model, taking account of presidents' goals and personal characteristics, …

Integrity And Presidential Approval, 1980-2000, Brian Newman

Brian Newman

Do individuals' assessments of the president's integrity consistently affect their evaluations of his job performance? Previous research suggests that they might, but extant studies typically do not directly examine the effects of these assessments. Those that do have examined only a few time points, leaving the question of whether integrity assessments consistently affect approval across presidencies unresolved. Further, they do not examine the effects of integrity on Bill Clinton's approval after the Lewinsky scandal, a time when many argued that integrity assessments were irrelevant to evaluations of his job performance. This study examines the effects of integrity assessments on approval …

Bill Clinton’S Approval Ratings: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same, Brian Newman

Brian Newman

Over the past three decades, political scientists have been developing general models of presidential approval ratings, seeking to determine the structure of aggregate approval. This endeavor has culminated in the broad claim that "peace, prosperity, and probity" drive the public's approval. The unprecedented events of the Clinton Presidency, especially his high approval during and after impeachment, present a strong challenge to this model. However, the existing model explains Clinton's approval remarkably well, suggesting that the public punished and rewarded him for the state of the economy, major political events, and his integrity. Passing this strong test constitutes considerable support for …