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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Balancing, Generic Polls And Midterm Congressional Elections, Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien
Balancing, Generic Polls And Midterm Congressional Elections, Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien
Dartmouth Scholarship
One mystery of U.S. politics is why the president’s party regularly loses congressional seats at midterm. Although presidential coattails and their withdrawal provide a partial explanation, coattails cannot account for the fact that the presidential party typically performs worse than normal at midterm. This paper addresses the midterm vote separate from the presidential year vote, with evidence from generic congressional polls conducted during midterm election years. Polls early in the midterm year project a normal vote result in November. But as the campaign progresses, vote preferences almost always move toward the out party. This shift is not a negative referendum …