Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Vicious Cycle: Fundraising And Perceived Viability In U.S. Presidential Primaries, Cameron A. Shelton, James J. Feigenbaum

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Scholars of presidential primaries have long posited a dynamic positive feedback loop between fundraising and electoral success. Yet existing work on both directions of this feedback remains inconclusive and is often explicitly cross-sectional, ignoring the dynamic aspect of the hypothesis. Pairing high-frequency FEC data on contributions and expenditures with Iowa Electronic Markets data on perceived probability of victory, we examine the bidirectional feedback between contributions and viability. We find robust, significant positive feedback in both directions. This might suggest multiple equilibria: a candidate initially anointed as the front-runner able to sustain such status solely by the fundraising advantage conferred despite …

Will Another White Male Be Elected President In 2008?, David E. Drew, Hedley Burrell

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

Barack Obama. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Bill Richardson. The field of minority and female candidates for president has never been so strong. But the question remains: Despite the expected presence of an African- American, a woman, and a Latino, will America in 2008 elect yet another male president of northern European descent?

No one can say for certain, but we hope this streak ends soon, because it's important that America elect its leaders from the full breadth of talent available in its diverse population.